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Dollar stabilizes ahead of key December inflation data

By Peter Nurse AiVIF.com - The U.S. dollar stabilized in early European trade Thursday ahead of a widely awaited U.S. consumer inflation release, while the Japanese yen surged...
Dollar stabilizes ahead of key December inflation data © Reuters
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By Peter Nurse

AiVIF.com - The U.S. dollar stabilized in early European trade Thursday ahead of a widely awaited U.S. consumer inflation release, while the Japanese yen surged ahead of next week's Bank of Japan meeting.

At 03:00 ET (08:00 GMT), the Dollar Index, which tracks the greenback against a basket of six other currencies, edged higher to 102.918, not far off its seven-month low of 102.76 hit earlier in the session.

The greenback has been on the back foot since late last year as an easing in interest rate increases by the Federal Reserve, and the expectation of more easing to come, ended a rally that pushed the currency to a 20-year peak in September.

Data showing inflation slipping back from 40-year highs has powered the expectation of the Fed reining in its aggressive rate hikes, and thus the focus is now squarely on the December U.S. CPI release, due later in the session.

This is expected to show that inflation eased further from the prior month, with the headline annual rate seen coming in at 6.5% in December, a drop from 7.1%. The core CPI figure, which excludes volatile energy and food prices, is seen showing annual growth of 5.7%, down from 6.0% in November.

"This year's FX market proposition remains whether U.S. inflation can acquiesce enough to allow the Fed to cut later this year," said analysts at ING, in a note. "The markets price a 50/60bp hike into the spring, then a cut of a similar magnitude by year-end."

Elsewhere, USD/JPY fell 0.6% to 131.69 following a local report that the Bank of Japan could review its bond yield targeting policy at next week's policy meeting, potentially taking additional steps to correct distortions in the yield curve.

The yen suffered badly last year as the BOJ resolutely retained a soft monetary policy stance even as other senior central banks, and the Federal Reserve, in particular, started to aggressively tighten interest rates to combat soaring inflation.

However, the Japanese central bank surprised in December with a tweak to its bond yield control, and speculation has been growing that it will be forced to do something similar again as it faces severe inflationary pressures at home.

EUR/USD rose 0.1% to 1.0761, after rising to a seven-month peak of 1.0776 in the previous session, GBP/USD rose 0.1% to 1.2149, and AUD/USD edged higher to 0.6901.

USD/CNY fell 0.2% to 6.7590, with the yuan near a five-month high after data showed that Chinese consumer inflation grew slightly more than expected in December from the prior month, indicating that economic activity was beginning to perk up after the government relaxed most anti-COVID measures.

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01-05-2024 10:45:17 (UTC+7)

EUR/USD

1.0658

-0.0008 (-0.07%)

Summary

↑ Sell

Moving Avg:

Buy (0)

Sell (12)

Indicators:

Buy (2)

Sell (3)

EUR/USD

1.0658

-0.0008 (-0.07%)

Summary

↑ Sell

Moving Avg:

Buy (0)

Sell (12)

Indicators:

Buy (2)

Sell (3)

GBP/USD

1.2475

-0.0015 (-0.12%)

Summary

↑ Sell

Moving Avg:

Buy (0)

Sell (12)

Indicators:

Buy (0)

Sell (10)

USD/JPY

157.91

+0.12 (+0.07%)

Summary

↑ Buy

Moving Avg:

Buy (12)

Sell (0)

Indicators:

Buy (9)

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AUD/USD

0.6469

-0.0003 (-0.05%)

Summary

Neutral

Moving Avg:

Buy (10)

Sell (2)

Indicators:

Buy (2)

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USD/CAD

1.3780

+0.0003 (+0.03%)

Summary

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Moving Avg:

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EUR/JPY

168.32

+0.10 (+0.06%)

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EUR/CHF

0.9808

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Gold Futures

2,295.80

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Silver Futures

26.677

+0.023 (+0.09%)

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Copper Futures

4.5305

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85.62

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213.73

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4,920.55

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S&P 500

5,035.69

-80.48 (-1.57%)

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DAX

17,921.95

-196.37 (-1.08%)

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FTSE 100

8,144.13

-2.90 (-0.04%)

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Sell

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17,763.03

+16.12 (+0.09%)

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Sell (12)

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Sell (6)

US Small Cap 2000

1,973.05

-42.98 (-2.13%)

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10,854.40

-246.40 (-2.22%)

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Neutral

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49.155

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27.35

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266.60

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Adidas AG

226.40

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6.714

-0.028 (-0.42%)

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Neutral

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Siemens AG Class N

175.90

-1.74 (-0.98%)

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15.010

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Summary

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Moving Avg:

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    EUR/USD 1.0658 ↑ Sell  
    GBP/USD 1.2475 ↑ Sell  
    USD/JPY 157.91 ↑ Buy  
    AUD/USD 0.6469 Neutral  
    USD/CAD 1.3780 ↑ Buy  
    EUR/JPY 168.32 ↑ Buy  
    EUR/CHF 0.9808 Neutral  
    Gold 2,295.80 ↑ Sell  
    Silver 26.677 ↑ Sell  
    Copper 4.5305 ↑ Buy  
    Crude Oil WTI 81.14 ↑ Sell  
    Brent Oil 85.62 ↑ Sell  
    Natural Gas 1.946 ↑ Sell  
    US Coffee C 213.73 ↑ Sell  
    Euro Stoxx 50 4,920.55 ↑ Sell  
    S&P 500 5,035.69 ↑ Sell  
    DAX 17,921.95 ↑ Sell  
    FTSE 100 8,144.13 Sell  
    Hang Seng 17,763.03 ↑ Sell  
    Small Cap 2000 1,973.05 ↑ Sell  
    IBEX 35 10,854.40 Neutral  
    BASF 49.155 ↑ Sell  
    Bayer 27.35 ↑ Sell  
    Allianz 266.60 ↑ Sell  
    Adidas 226.40 ↑ Sell  
    Lufthansa 6.714 Neutral  
    Siemens AG 175.90 ↑ Sell  
    Deutsche Bank AG 15.010 Neutral  
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