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Dollar edges higher for now; more weakness likely

By Peter Nurse AiVIF.com - The U.S. dollar edged off its recent seven-month low Tuesday, while the Japanese yen slipped lower ahead of a widely-anticipated Bank of Japan...
Dollar edges higher for now; more weakness likely © Reuters
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By Peter Nurse

AiVIF.com - The U.S. dollar edged off its recent seven-month low Tuesday, while the Japanese yen slipped lower ahead of a widely-anticipated Bank of Japan meeting.

At 03:20 ET (08:20 GMT), the Dollar Index, which tracks the greenback against a basket of six other currencies, rose 0.1% to 102.005, bouncing from a seven-month low of 101.77 seen on Monday. 

The dollar has seen some support early Tuesday, but the conviction call within the market now appears to be that the greenback has peaked with the U.S. Federal Reserve nearing the end of its rate-hike cycle as inflation heads lower.

Morgan Stanley, for example, has cut its 2023 year-end forecast for the dollar index to 98 from 104.

"Global growth is showing signs of buoyancy, macro and inflation uncertainty are waning and the USD is rapidly losing its carry advantage," analysts at the investment bank said, in a note.

The U.S. data calendar is relatively light this week, but retail sales, industrial production and existing home sales should all fall on the soft side. 

“In theory, then, this should not impact too much the market expectations of two 25bp Federal Reserve hikes in February and March, both of which are expected to be reversed by year-end,” said analysts at ING, in a note.

This change in sentiment can be seen in USD/JPY, with the pair just above a seven-month low, although the yen has handed back some gains in the session, with the pair up slightly at 128.56.

Traders are firmly focused on the Bank of Japan’s policy-setting meeting later in the week, with expectations growing that the central bank officials will announce a change or end to Japan's yield curve control policy.

“Further adjustments to its JGB targets are in focus and investors are positioning for this with higher longer-dated swap rates. We suspect USD/JPY can trade down to 126.50 before Wednesday,” ING added.

Elsewhere, EUR/USD rose 0.1% to 1.0832, just off the previous session’s nine-month high of 1.0874, while GBP/USD rose 0.2% to 1.2217 after the U.K. labor market stayed stronger than expected in December.

The U.K. claimant count rose by 19,700, rather than the 19,800 expected by economists, while November's data were revised down to show an increase of only 16,100, rather than the 30,500 initially reported.

At the same time, wage growth in November, the last month for which data are available, grew more strongly than expected, rising 6.4% on the year, suggesting the Bank of England will have to keep tightening in its attempt to rein in inflation.

USD/CNY rose 0.5% to 6.7660, with the yuan coming off a near five-month high after data showed that the Chinese economy grew at a substantially slower pace in 2022 than the prior year, rising 3.0%, far below the official target of around 5.5%.

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30-03-2023 05:53:31 (UTC+7)

EUR/USD

1.0843

0.0000 (0.00%)

Summary

↑ Sell

Moving Avg:

Buy (4)

Sell (8)

Indicators:

Buy (2)

Sell (8)

EUR/USD

1.0843

0.0000 (0.00%)

Summary

↑ Sell

Moving Avg:

Buy (4)

Sell (8)

Indicators:

Buy (2)

Sell (8)

GBP/USD

1.2315

+0.0004 (+0.03%)

Summary

↑ Buy

Moving Avg:

Buy (11)

Sell (1)

Indicators:

Buy (6)

Sell (3)

USD/JPY

132.65

-0.18 (-0.14%)

Summary

Neutral

Moving Avg:

Buy (5)

Sell (7)

Indicators:

Buy (5)

Sell (3)

AUD/USD

0.6686

+0.0003 (+0.04%)

Summary

Neutral

Moving Avg:

Buy (9)

Sell (3)

Indicators:

Buy (0)

Sell (7)

USD/CAD

1.3560

+0.0004 (+0.03%)

Summary

Sell

Moving Avg:

Buy (5)

Sell (7)

Indicators:

Buy (2)

Sell (4)

EUR/JPY

143.84

-0.20 (-0.14%)

Summary

Sell

Moving Avg:

Buy (4)

Sell (8)

Indicators:

Buy (3)

Sell (4)

EUR/CHF

0.9956

-0.0001 (-0.02%)

Summary

↑ Sell

Moving Avg:

Buy (4)

Sell (8)

Indicators:

Buy (1)

Sell (8)

Gold Futures

1,981.95

-1.05 (-0.05%)

Summary

↑ Sell

Moving Avg:

Buy (1)

Sell (11)

Indicators:

Buy (2)

Sell (6)

Silver Futures

23.440

-0.028 (-0.12%)

Summary

↑ Sell

Moving Avg:

Buy (0)

Sell (12)

Indicators:

Buy (1)

Sell (8)

Copper Futures

4.0770

-0.0060 (-0.15%)

Summary

Sell

Moving Avg:

Buy (4)

Sell (8)

Indicators:

Buy (3)

Sell (4)

Crude Oil WTI Futures

72.81

+0.02 (+0.03%)

Summary

↑ Sell

Moving Avg:

Buy (4)

Sell (8)

Indicators:

Buy (0)

Sell (8)

Brent Oil Futures

77.53

-0.61 (-0.78%)

Summary

↑ Buy

Moving Avg:

Buy (10)

Sell (2)

Indicators:

Buy (6)

Sell (2)

Natural Gas Futures

2.180

-0.003 (-0.14%)

Summary

↑ Buy

Moving Avg:

Buy (8)

Sell (4)

Indicators:

Buy (6)

Sell (2)

US Coffee C Futures

170.03

-3.72 (-2.14%)

Summary

↑ Buy

Moving Avg:

Buy (12)

Sell (0)

Indicators:

Buy (9)

Sell (0)

Euro Stoxx 50

4,231.27

+63.06 (+1.51%)

Summary

↑ Buy

Moving Avg:

Buy (12)

Sell (0)

Indicators:

Buy (8)

Sell (0)

S&P 500

4,027.81

+56.54 (+1.42%)

Summary

Buy

Moving Avg:

Buy (11)

Sell (1)

Indicators:

Buy (3)

Sell (3)

DAX

15,328.78

+186.76 (+1.23%)

Summary

↑ Buy

Moving Avg:

Buy (12)

Sell (0)

Indicators:

Buy (7)

Sell (0)

FTSE 100

7,564.27

+80.02 (+1.07%)

Summary

↑ Buy

Moving Avg:

Buy (12)

Sell (0)

Indicators:

Buy (10)

Sell (0)

Hang Seng

20,192.40

+407.75 (+2.06%)

Summary

Neutral

Moving Avg:

Buy (9)

Sell (3)

Indicators:

Buy (1)

Sell (7)

US Small Cap 2000

1,770.93

+18.30 (+1.04%)

Summary

↑ Sell

Moving Avg:

Buy (0)

Sell (12)

Indicators:

Buy (1)

Sell (5)

IBEX 35

9,070.70

+126.40 (+1.41%)

Summary

↑ Buy

Moving Avg:

Buy (11)

Sell (1)

Indicators:

Buy (6)

Sell (0)

BASF SE NA O.N.

47.180

+0.795 (+1.71%)

Summary

↑ Buy

Moving Avg:

Buy (10)

Sell (2)

Indicators:

Buy (4)

Sell (3)

Bayer AG NA

57.27

+0.40 (+0.70%)

Summary

↑ Sell

Moving Avg:

Buy (1)

Sell (11)

Indicators:

Buy (1)

Sell (10)

Allianz SE VNA O.N.

209.35

+3.20 (+1.55%)

Summary

↑ Buy

Moving Avg:

Buy (11)

Sell (1)

Indicators:

Buy (8)

Sell (0)

Adidas AG

146.42

+5.24 (+3.71%)

Summary

↑ Buy

Moving Avg:

Buy (7)

Sell (5)

Indicators:

Buy (6)

Sell (1)

Deutsche Lufthansa AG

9.647

+0.206 (+2.18%)

Summary

↑ Buy

Moving Avg:

Buy (12)

Sell (0)

Indicators:

Buy (8)

Sell (1)

Siemens AG Class N

146.30

+2.78 (+1.94%)

Summary

↑ Sell

Moving Avg:

Buy (3)

Sell (9)

Indicators:

Buy (1)

Sell (10)

Deutsche Bank AG

9.143

+0.221 (+2.48%)

Summary

↑ Buy

Moving Avg:

Buy (12)

Sell (0)

Indicators:

Buy (8)

Sell (0)

    EUR/USD 1.0843 ↑ Sell  
    GBP/USD 1.2315 ↑ Buy  
    USD/JPY 132.65 Neutral  
    AUD/USD 0.6686 Neutral  
    USD/CAD 1.3560 Sell  
    EUR/JPY 143.84 Sell  
    EUR/CHF 0.9956 ↑ Sell  
    Gold 1,981.95 ↑ Sell  
    Silver 23.440 ↑ Sell  
    Copper 4.0770 Sell  
    Crude Oil WTI 72.81 ↑ Sell  
    Brent Oil 77.53 ↑ Buy  
    Natural Gas 2.180 ↑ Buy  
    US Coffee C 170.03 ↑ Buy  
    Euro Stoxx 50 4,231.27 ↑ Buy  
    S&P 500 4,027.81 Buy  
    DAX 15,328.78 ↑ Buy  
    FTSE 100 7,564.27 ↑ Buy  
    Hang Seng 20,192.40 Neutral  
    Small Cap 2000 1,770.93 ↑ Sell  
    IBEX 35 9,070.70 ↑ Buy  
    BASF 47.180 ↑ Buy  
    Bayer 57.27 ↑ Sell  
    Allianz 209.35 ↑ Buy  
    Adidas 146.42 ↑ Buy  
    Lufthansa 9.647 ↑ Buy  
    Siemens AG 146.30 ↑ Sell  
    Deutsche Bank AG 9.143 ↑ Buy  
Mua/Bán 1 chỉ SJC
# So hôm qua # Chênh TG
SJC Eximbank6,645/ 6,685
(0/ 0) # 1,079
SJC HCM6,645/ 6,715
(0/ 0) # 1,110
SJC Hanoi6,645/ 6,717
(0/ 0) # 1,112
SJC Danang6,645/ 6,717
(0/ 0) # 1,112
SJC Nhatrang6,645/ 6,717
(0/ 0) # 1,112
SJC Cantho6,645/ 6,717
(0/ 0) # 1,112
Cập nhật 30-03-2023 05:53:33
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$ Tỷ giá Vietcombank
Ngoại tệMua vàoBán ra
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GBP28.198,2129.400,59
JPY173,28183,45
KRW15,5818,99
Cập nhật lúc 18:51:25 29/03/2023
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