Asia FX Extends Slump on Recession Fears, Dollar Reigns

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By Ambar Warrick 

AiVIF.com-- Asian currencies fell further on Wednesday amid growing fears of a global recession, while the dollar continued its ascent on safe haven demand and in anticipation of more U.S. economic cues.

The Japanese yen fell 0.2% to a new 24-year low of over 146, as a widening gap between local and U.S. interest rates continued to badger the currency. Sentiment towards Japan was dealt a fresh blow after data showed machinery orders in its massive industrial sector fell more than expected in August.

Traders are now eyeing more intervention in currency markets by the Japanese government, as it struggles to support the yen.

The Chinese yuan fell 0.2%, even as data showed efforts by the government to increase local liquidity were bearing fruit. New bank lending in China nearly doubled in September from the prior month, amid increased stimulus measures by the central bank. 

But a resurgence in local COVID cases has largely sapped appetite for Chinese assets, as investors fear more lockdown measures. Focus this week is on economic cues from local inflation and trade data, and any major policy shifts flagged in the 20th National Congress of the Chinese Communist Party.

The dollar index rose 0.2%, while dollar index futures added 0.2%, staying close to 20-year highs hit last month. The greenback benefited from safe haven buying after the International Monetary Fund cut its 2023 global economic growth forecast, and warned of a potential recession.

Risk appetite was also slammed by the Bank of England signaling it will end its support for the debt market this week, raising fears of a potential bond crisis in the country. The British pound fell 0.2% to a near two-week low. 

Worsening sentiment, coupled with more hawkish signals from the Federal Reserve, weighed on most Asian currencies. Markets are now awaiting key U.S. inflation data this week, which is largely expected to factor into the Fed’s plan for raising interest rates.

The minutes of the Fed’s September meeting, due later today, will also be watched for more hawkish cues. 

Bucking the regional trend, albeit slight, the South Korean won rose 0.3% after the central bank raised interest rates by 50 basis points, and signaled more tightening in order to support the currency. The won was still trading just above 13-year lows.

Among Antipodean currencies, the Australian dollar fell 0.2% to 0.6240- its weakest level since early-2020.