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Big falls, thin trades: Trading Turkey's lira

By Saikat Chatterjee and Karin Strohecker LONDON (Reuters) - The Turkish lira suffered a historic 15% fall on Tuesday in a session marked by thin trading volumes and dwindling...
Big falls, thin trades: Trading Turkey's lira © Reuters. FILE PHOTO: A money changer holds Turkish lira banknotes at a currency exchange office in Ankara, Turkey September 27, 2021. REUTERS/Cagla Gurdogan

By Saikat Chatterjee and Karin Strohecker

LONDON (Reuters) - The Turkish lira suffered a historic 15% fall on Tuesday in a session marked by thin trading volumes and dwindling liquidity, and gauges are pointing to more rocky times ahead.

Below are four charts depicting trading on a watershed day for the lira.

FROM FLOWS TO TRICKLES

The number of trades thinned out dramatically as the lira plunged to its record low of 13.45 to the dollar on Tuesday, data over the past week showed. The amount of deals peaked during that period when the lira stood at just under 10 to the dollar.

Price swings in thinning volumes are a classic sign of a market freezing up, with market makers shying away from offering trading liquidity while end-users are panicking to transact at any available prices.

Graphic - Lira trades: https://fingfx.thomsonreuters.com/gfx/mkt/zgpomkxoapd/liratrades.png

Graphic - Lira Volumes: https://fingfx.thomsonreuters.com/gfx/mkt/byvrjkwgeve/liravolumes.png

SOARING VOL

Implied volatility gauges for lira/dollar - indicating expected fluctuations ahead - on Tuesday raced to their highest level since Turkey's 2018 currency crisis. The lira reversing some of its losses on Wednesday saw only a small pull back in implied volatility, showing that investors are betting on more swings ahead.

Derivative markets signal a dearth of option liquidity, with the fact that traders are shying away from large directional bets further exacerbating the price swings.

Graphic - Lira volatility: https://fingfx.thomsonreuters.com/gfx/mkt/jnvwexdmavw/Lira%20volatility.JPG

WIDENING GAP

Volatility in the lira is unlikely to end soon. Market gauges for longer-term measures of lira volatility suggest traders expect a rocky road ahead. One-year implied volatility indicators compared to one-month maturities are showing their widest gap since 2018.

Graphic - Lira volcurve: https://fingfx.thomsonreuters.com/gfx/mkt/akvezmwbnpr/liravolcurve.JPG

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29-03-2024 03:59:57 (UTC+7)

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 EUR/USD1.0788Sell
 GBP/USD1.2623↑ Buy
 USD/JPY151.38↑ Buy
 AUD/USD0.6516↑ Buy
 USD/CAD1.3541↑ Sell
 EUR/JPY163.26Neutral
 EUR/CHF0.9728Neutral
 Gold2,254.80↑ Buy
 Silver25.090↑ Buy
 Copper4.0113↑ Buy
 Crude Oil WTI83.12↑ Buy
 Brent Oil86.96↑ Buy
 Natural Gas1.751↑ Sell
 US Coffee C188.53↑ Sell
 Euro Stoxx 505,082.85↑ Sell
 S&P 5005,254.35↑ Sell
 DAX18,504.51↑ Buy
 FTSE 1007,952.62↑ Sell
 Hang Seng16,541.42Neutral
 Small Cap 20002,120.15Neutral
 IBEX 3511,074.60↑ Sell
 BASF52.930↑ Buy
 Bayer28.43Buy
 Allianz277.80↑ Buy
 Adidas207.00↑ Buy
 Lufthansa7.281↑ Sell
 Siemens AG176.96↑ Buy
 Deutsche Bank AG14.582↑ Buy
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