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Big falls, thin trades: Trading Turkey's lira

By Saikat Chatterjee and Karin Strohecker LONDON (Reuters) - The Turkish lira suffered a historic 15% fall on Tuesday in a session marked by thin trading volumes and dwindling...
Big falls, thin trades: Trading Turkey's lira © Reuters. FILE PHOTO: A money changer holds Turkish lira banknotes at a currency exchange office in Ankara, Turkey September 27, 2021. REUTERS/Cagla Gurdogan

By Saikat Chatterjee and Karin Strohecker

LONDON (Reuters) - The Turkish lira suffered a historic 15% fall on Tuesday in a session marked by thin trading volumes and dwindling liquidity, and gauges are pointing to more rocky times ahead.

Below are four charts depicting trading on a watershed day for the lira.

FROM FLOWS TO TRICKLES

The number of trades thinned out dramatically as the lira plunged to its record low of 13.45 to the dollar on Tuesday, data over the past week showed. The amount of deals peaked during that period when the lira stood at just under 10 to the dollar.

Price swings in thinning volumes are a classic sign of a market freezing up, with market makers shying away from offering trading liquidity while end-users are panicking to transact at any available prices.

Graphic - Lira trades: https://fingfx.thomsonreuters.com/gfx/mkt/zgpomkxoapd/liratrades.png

Graphic - Lira Volumes: https://fingfx.thomsonreuters.com/gfx/mkt/byvrjkwgeve/liravolumes.png

SOARING VOL

Implied volatility gauges for lira/dollar - indicating expected fluctuations ahead - on Tuesday raced to their highest level since Turkey's 2018 currency crisis. The lira reversing some of its losses on Wednesday saw only a small pull back in implied volatility, showing that investors are betting on more swings ahead.

Derivative markets signal a dearth of option liquidity, with the fact that traders are shying away from large directional bets further exacerbating the price swings.

Graphic - Lira volatility: https://fingfx.thomsonreuters.com/gfx/mkt/jnvwexdmavw/Lira%20volatility.JPG

WIDENING GAP

Volatility in the lira is unlikely to end soon. Market gauges for longer-term measures of lira volatility suggest traders expect a rocky road ahead. One-year implied volatility indicators compared to one-month maturities are showing their widest gap since 2018.

Graphic - Lira volcurve: https://fingfx.thomsonreuters.com/gfx/mkt/akvezmwbnpr/liravolcurve.JPG

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04-12-2021 05:58:26 (UTC+7)

EUR/USD

1.1316

+0.0017 (+0.15%)

Summary

↑ Buy

Moving Avg:

Buy (12)

Sell (0)

Indicators:

Buy (6)

Sell (1)

EUR/USD

1.1316

+0.0017 (+0.15%)

Summary

↑ Buy

Moving Avg:

Buy (12)

Sell (0)

Indicators:

Buy (6)

Sell (1)

GBP/USD

1.3239

-0.0067 (-0.51%)

Summary

↑ Buy

Moving Avg:

Buy (11)

Sell (1)

Indicators:

Buy (6)

Sell (2)

USD/JPY

112.82

-0.34 (-0.30%)

Summary

Sell

Moving Avg:

Buy (6)

Sell (6)

Indicators:

Buy (2)

Sell (7)

AUD/USD

0.6998

-0.0095 (-1.34%)

Summary

↑ Sell

Moving Avg:

Buy (1)

Sell (11)

Indicators:

Buy (2)

Sell (4)

USD/CAD

1.2846

+0.0038 (+0.30%)

Summary

Neutral

Moving Avg:

Buy (8)

Sell (4)

Indicators:

Buy (2)

Sell (4)

EUR/JPY

127.66

-0.19 (-0.15%)

Summary

↑ Buy

Moving Avg:

Buy (12)

Sell (0)

Indicators:

Buy (7)

Sell (2)

EUR/CHF

1.0385

-0.0012 (-0.12%)

Summary

↑ Buy

Moving Avg:

Buy (12)

Sell (0)

Indicators:

Buy (4)

Sell (3)

Gold Futures

1,784.15

+21.45 (+1.22%)

Summary

↑ Sell

Moving Avg:

Buy (1)

Sell (11)

Indicators:

Buy (2)

Sell (6)

Silver Futures

22.562

+0.246 (+1.10%)

Summary

↑ Buy

Moving Avg:

Buy (12)

Sell (0)

Indicators:

Buy (10)

Sell (0)

Copper Futures

4.2725

-0.0265 (-0.62%)

Summary

↑ Sell

Moving Avg:

Buy (0)

Sell (12)

Indicators:

Buy (3)

Sell (7)

Crude Oil WTI Futures

66.27

-0.23 (-0.35%)

Summary

↑ Sell

Moving Avg:

Buy (2)

Sell (10)

Indicators:

Buy (1)

Sell (6)

Brent Oil Futures

69.91

+0.24 (+0.34%)

Summary

↑ Sell

Moving Avg:

Buy (3)

Sell (9)

Indicators:

Buy (0)

Sell (7)

Natural Gas Futures

4.095

+0.039 (+0.96%)

Summary

Sell

Moving Avg:

Buy (4)

Sell (8)

Indicators:

Buy (3)

Sell (4)

US Coffee C Futures

242.40

+5.80 (+2.45%)

Summary

↑ Sell

Moving Avg:

Buy (0)

Sell (12)

Indicators:

Buy (1)

Sell (6)

Euro Stoxx 50

4,080.15

-27.87 (-0.68%)

Summary

↑ Buy

Moving Avg:

Buy (10)

Sell (2)

Indicators:

Buy (7)

Sell (0)

S&P 500

4,538.43

-38.67 (-0.84%)

Summary

↑ Buy

Moving Avg:

Buy (12)

Sell (0)

Indicators:

Buy (7)

Sell (0)

DAX

15,169.98

-93.13 (-0.61%)

Summary

↑ Buy

Moving Avg:

Buy (9)

Sell (3)

Indicators:

Buy (7)

Sell (0)

FTSE 100

7,122.32

-6.89 (-0.10%)

Summary

↑ Buy

Moving Avg:

Buy (8)

Sell (4)

Indicators:

Buy (9)

Sell (0)

Hang Seng

23,766.69

-22.24 (-0.09%)

Summary

↑ Buy

Moving Avg:

Buy (12)

Sell (0)

Indicators:

Buy (5)

Sell (0)

US Small Cap 2000

2,150.30

-56.04 (-2.54%)

Summary

Neutral

Moving Avg:

Buy (1)

Sell (11)

Indicators:

Buy (5)

Sell (4)

IBEX 35

8,241.70

-59.10 (-0.71%)

Summary

↑ Buy

Moving Avg:

Buy (9)

Sell (3)

Indicators:

Buy (8)

Sell (0)

BASF SE NA O.N.

58.240

-0.930 (-1.57%)

Summary

↑ Sell

Moving Avg:

Buy (0)

Sell (12)

Indicators:

Buy (0)

Sell (10)

Bayer AG NA

44.20

-0.78 (-1.73%)

Summary

Sell

Moving Avg:

Buy (4)

Sell (8)

Indicators:

Buy (2)

Sell (4)

Allianz SE VNA O.N.

197.02

-0.36 (-0.18%)

Summary

↑ Sell

Moving Avg:

Buy (0)

Sell (12)

Indicators:

Buy (0)

Sell (9)

Adidas AG

247.82

-7.43 (-2.91%)

Summary

Neutral

Moving Avg:

Buy (2)

Sell (10)

Indicators:

Buy (5)

Sell (2)

Deutsche Lufthansa AG

5.687

+0.062 (+1.10%)

Summary

Sell

Moving Avg:

Buy (2)

Sell (10)

Indicators:

Buy (3)

Sell (4)

Siemens AG Class N

146.30

-1.41 (-0.95%)

Summary

↑ Sell

Moving Avg:

Buy (0)

Sell (12)

Indicators:

Buy (1)

Sell (5)

Deutsche Bank AG

10.740

-0.210 (-1.92%)

Summary

↑ Sell

Moving Avg:

Buy (0)

Sell (12)

Indicators:

Buy (1)

Sell (9)

 EUR/USD1.1316↑ Buy
 GBP/USD1.3239↑ Buy
 USD/JPY112.82Sell
 AUD/USD0.6998↑ Sell
 USD/CAD1.2846Neutral
 EUR/JPY127.66↑ Buy
 EUR/CHF1.0385↑ Buy
 Gold1,784.15↑ Sell
 Silver22.562↑ Buy
 Copper4.2725↑ Sell
 Crude Oil WTI66.27↑ Sell
 Brent Oil69.91↑ Sell
 Natural Gas4.095Sell
 US Coffee C242.40↑ Sell
 Euro Stoxx 504,080.15↑ Buy
 S&P 5004,538.43↑ Buy
 DAX15,169.98↑ Buy
 FTSE 1007,122.32↑ Buy
 Hang Seng23,766.69↑ Buy
 Small Cap 20002,150.30Neutral
 IBEX 358,241.70↑ Buy
 BASF58.240↑ Sell
 Bayer44.20Sell
 Allianz197.02↑ Sell
 Adidas247.82Neutral
 Lufthansa5.687Sell
 Siemens AG146.30↑ Sell
 Deutsche Bank AG10.740↑ Sell
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