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S&P 500 futures hit 4000 on CPI, Harker's comments; analysts see stocks 'grinding higher'

By Senad Karaahmetovic The S&P 500 futures are moving higher after the much-anticipated CPI report came in line with analyst expectations. Judging by the market reaction following...
S&P 500 futures hit 4000 on CPI, Harker's comments; analysts see stocks 'grinding higher' © Pavlo Gonchar / SOPA Images/Sipa via Reuters Connect S&P 500 futures hit 4000 on CPI, Harker's comments; analyst sees stocks 'grinding higher'
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By Senad Karaahmetovic

The S&P 500 futures are moving higher after the much-anticipated CPI report came in line with analyst expectations. Judging by the market reaction following the neutral CPI print, it is clear that investors are betting that the Federal Reserve will adopt a less aggressive approach and tone at its next policy meeting on February 01.

The December CPI report yielded a 0.1% dip in prices from November but still showed a year-over-year increase of 6.5%. Excluding food and energy, inflation showed a month-over-month gain of 0.3% and 5.7% YoY.

The S&P 500 initially fell before racing higher to touch the 4000 handle for the first time in 4 weeks. The rally has cooled in the meantime as the S&P 500 futures trade at around 3982, about 0.2% up on the day, as of 09:25 EST (14:25 GMT).

The futures were also boosted by comments by Fed Patrick Harker, who serves as the President of the Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia. While noting that the Fed is likely to raise rates “a few more times” this year, he also believes that it’s time to shift to smaller, 25bps rate hikes.

“We will raise rates a few more times this year, though, to my mind, the days of us raising them 75 basis points at a time have surely passed…hikes of 25 bps will be appropriate going forward," Harker said.

Following his comments, the Fed swaps now seem to favor a 25bp February rate increase. The Fed-dated OIS is pricing in around 28bp of rate-hike premium, down from 33bp at Wednesday’s close. This has pushed bond yields lower while underpinning stocks.

“Stocks are likely to continue grinding higher, albeit w/a ceiling for the SPX still at ~4100. We don’t think the CPI changes much for the Fed (although watch for Fed officials today to try and undermine the equity enthusiasm),” Vital Knowledge analysts wrote in a note to clients following the CPI data release.

“The real debate isn’t the ceiling height but instead the ceiling length (the market is pricing in 2+ 25bp cuts in H2, something the Fed doesn’t agree with),” they added.

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04-10-2023 21:04:46 (UTC+7)

EUR/USD

1.0494

+0.0029 (+0.28%)

Summary

↑ Sell

Moving Avg:

Buy (0)

Sell (12)

Indicators:

Buy (0)

Sell (8)

EUR/USD

1.0494

+0.0029 (+0.28%)

Summary

↑ Sell

Moving Avg:

Buy (0)

Sell (12)

Indicators:

Buy (0)

Sell (8)

GBP/USD

1.2127

+0.0052 (+0.43%)

Summary

↑ Sell

Moving Avg:

Buy (0)

Sell (12)

Indicators:

Buy (0)

Sell (8)

USD/JPY

149.09

+0.07 (+0.04%)

Summary

↑ Buy

Moving Avg:

Buy (12)

Sell (0)

Indicators:

Buy (8)

Sell (0)

AUD/USD

0.6318

+0.0017 (+0.27%)

Summary

↑ Sell

Moving Avg:

Buy (2)

Sell (10)

Indicators:

Buy (0)

Sell (11)

USD/CAD

1.3757

+0.0049 (+0.36%)

Summary

↑ Buy

Moving Avg:

Buy (12)

Sell (0)

Indicators:

Buy (7)

Sell (0)

EUR/JPY

156.44

+0.47 (+0.30%)

Summary

↑ Sell

Moving Avg:

Buy (0)

Sell (12)

Indicators:

Buy (0)

Sell (9)

EUR/CHF

0.9626

-0.0014 (-0.15%)

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Neutral

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Buy (8)

Sell (4)

Indicators:

Buy (3)

Sell (3)

Gold Futures

1,833.55

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Moving Avg:

Buy (0)

Sell (12)

Indicators:

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Sell (9)

Silver Futures

21.102

-0.275 (-1.29%)

Summary

Neutral

Moving Avg:

Buy (5)

Sell (7)

Indicators:

Buy (4)

Sell (4)

Copper Futures

3.5578

-0.0632 (-1.75%)

Summary

↑ Sell

Moving Avg:

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Sell (12)

Indicators:

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Sell (8)

Crude Oil WTI Futures

86.64

-2.59 (-2.90%)

Summary

↑ Sell

Moving Avg:

Buy (1)

Sell (11)

Indicators:

Buy (2)

Sell (7)

Brent Oil Futures

88.38

-2.54 (-2.79%)

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Moving Avg:

Buy (0)

Sell (12)

Indicators:

Buy (2)

Sell (7)

Natural Gas Futures

3.032

+0.083 (+2.81%)

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Neutral

Moving Avg:

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Sell (5)

Indicators:

Buy (1)

Sell (9)

US Coffee C Futures

148.05

-0.70 (-0.47%)

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Buy

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Sell (4)

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Buy (4)

Sell (3)

Euro Stoxx 50

4,096.75

+1.16 (+0.03%)

Summary

↑ Sell

Moving Avg:

Buy (0)

Sell (12)

Indicators:

Buy (0)

Sell (8)

S&P 500

4,231.19

+1.74 (+0.04%)

Summary

↑ Sell

Moving Avg:

Buy (3)

Sell (9)

Indicators:

Buy (0)

Sell (7)

DAX

15,074.35

-10.86 (-0.07%)

Summary

↑ Sell

Moving Avg:

Buy (0)

Sell (12)

Indicators:

Buy (0)

Sell (7)

FTSE 100

7,419.86

-50.30 (-0.67%)

Summary

↑ Sell

Moving Avg:

Buy (0)

Sell (12)

Indicators:

Buy (0)

Sell (9)

Hang Seng

17,186.00

-90.00 (-0.52%)

Summary

↑ Buy

Moving Avg:

Buy (12)

Sell (0)

Indicators:

Buy (6)

Sell (1)

US Small Cap 2000

1,712.60

-14.55 (-0.84%)

Summary

↑ Sell

Moving Avg:

Buy (0)

Sell (12)

Indicators:

Buy (0)

Sell (7)

IBEX 35

9,100.16

-65.34 (-0.71%)

Summary

↑ Sell

Moving Avg:

Buy (0)

Sell (12)

Indicators:

Buy (0)

Sell (7)

BASF SE NA O.N.

41.590

-0.170 (-0.41%)

Summary

↑ Sell

Moving Avg:

Buy (3)

Sell (9)

Indicators:

Buy (1)

Sell (6)

Bayer AG NA

44.23

+0.35 (+0.80%)

Summary

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Moving Avg:

Buy (0)

Sell (12)

Indicators:

Buy (2)

Sell (9)

Allianz SE VNA O.N.

219.57

-1.38 (-0.62%)

Summary

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Moving Avg:

Buy (0)

Sell (12)

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Buy (0)

Sell (7)

Adidas AG

161.22

+0.50 (+0.31%)

Summary

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Moving Avg:

Buy (0)

Sell (12)

Indicators:

Buy (0)

Sell (11)

Deutsche Lufthansa AG

7.150

-0.097 (-1.34%)

Summary

Neutral

Moving Avg:

Buy (9)

Sell (3)

Indicators:

Buy (3)

Sell (4)

Siemens AG Class N

133.61

+0.51 (+0.38%)

Summary

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Moving Avg:

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Sell (8)

Deutsche Bank AG

9.870

-0.061 (-0.61%)

Summary

↑ Sell

Moving Avg:

Buy (0)

Sell (12)

Indicators:

Buy (0)

Sell (10)

    EUR/USD 1.0494 ↑ Sell  
    GBP/USD 1.2127 ↑ Sell  
    USD/JPY 149.09 ↑ Buy  
    AUD/USD 0.6318 ↑ Sell  
    USD/CAD 1.3757 ↑ Buy  
    EUR/JPY 156.44 ↑ Sell  
    EUR/CHF 0.9626 Neutral  
    Gold 1,833.55 ↑ Sell  
    Silver 21.102 Neutral  
    Copper 3.5578 ↑ Sell  
    Crude Oil WTI 86.64 ↑ Sell  
    Brent Oil 88.38 ↑ Sell  
    Natural Gas 3.032 Neutral  
    US Coffee C 148.05 Buy  
    Euro Stoxx 50 4,096.75 ↑ Sell  
    S&P 500 4,231.19 ↑ Sell  
    DAX 15,074.35 ↑ Sell  
    FTSE 100 7,419.86 ↑ Sell  
    Hang Seng 17,186.00 ↑ Buy  
    Small Cap 2000 1,712.60 ↑ Sell  
    IBEX 35 9,100.16 ↑ Sell  
    BASF 41.590 ↑ Sell  
    Bayer 44.23 ↑ Sell  
    Allianz 219.57 ↑ Sell  
    Adidas 161.22 ↑ Sell  
    Lufthansa 7.150 Neutral  
    Siemens AG 133.61 ↑ Sell  
    Deutsche Bank AG 9.870 ↑ Sell  
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