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Bill Ackman Says Bond Market is Misreading the Fed, Inflation is Out of Control and Fed May Ramp Up Hawkish Commentary

By Davit Kirakosyan Bill Ackman, a billionaire investor and the founder and CEO of hedge fund management company Pershing Square Capital Management, tweeted today that the bond...
Bill Ackman Says Bond Market is Misreading the Fed, Inflation is Out of Control and Fed May Ramp Up Hawkish Commentary © Reuters. Bill Ackman Says Bond Market is Misreading the Fed, Inflation is Out of Control and Fed May Ramp Up Hawkish Commentary

By Davit Kirakosyan

Bill Ackman, a billionaire investor and the founder and CEO of hedge fund management company Pershing Square Capital Management, tweeted today that the bond market is misreading the U.S. Fed.

According to Ackman, this is likely due to Fed chair Jerome Powell’s communication style and some wishful thinking on the part of investors. Ackman added that inflation is out of control and inflationary expectations have become unanchored.

"The Fed has finally come to this realization and has decided to act, and is playing catch up," Ackman commented. "However, Powell does not come across as someone who wants to go to battle against inflation. He seems uncomfortable and reluctant, almost apologetic, about raising rates."

Ackman added that each time Powell speaks unscripted in Q&A, the market interprets his statements dovishly. To fix his message, the Fed governors thereafter go out to clarify.

"To wit, Kashkari, a historic dove, on 6/17 unveiled his dot plot which shows FF at 3.9% by YE and 4.4% by YE’23. He says 75 bps in July and 50 bps thereafter ‘until inflation is well on its way to 2%.’ Then on 6/18 Waller said he supports 75 bps in July and said the Fed is ‘all in’ on fighting inflation. And then today Bowman, who speaks rarely but carries great import in light of the rarity of her public statements, said ‘I expect that an additional rate increase of 75 basis points will be appropriate at our next meeting as well as increases of at least 50 basis points in the next few subsequent meetings…’ And Bostick last week said the Fed would do ‘whatever it takes’ to bring inflation back to 2%. Despite the above coordinated commentary, the bond market has ignored these statements leading to a massive decline in short term rates since the Fed meeting."

Ackman predicts the Fed and Powell are serious about inflation and Powell does not want to be known as a worse chair than Arthur Burns. He believes the Fed will raise rates 75 bps or more in July and 50 bps or more in subsequent meetings and won’t pause until it is clear and convincing that inflation is headed back to 2%.

The hedge fund manager said a federal funds rate of 5% next year is in the cards.

He added that while the recession word is on everyone’s lips, recession talk won’t bring down inflation.

"Consumers and corporations are well capitalized and underlevered," he adds. "Banks are massively underinvested with one of the lowest ratio of deposits to loans in history. The potential for a future recession won’t stop the Fed from raising rates now."

Ackman finishes by saying the Fed has a credibility problem as the bond market flat out ignores Powell’s and the governors’ commentary. "This must be concerning to the Fed as managing inflationary expectations is critical to controlling inflation," he said. "Expect even more hawkish commentary until the bond market wakes up."

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30-06-2022 21:00:15 (UTC+7)

EUR/USD

1.0417

-0.0022 (-0.21%)

Summary

↑ Buy

Moving Avg:

Buy (12)

Sell (0)

Indicators:

Buy (7)

Sell (0)

EUR/USD

1.0417

-0.0022 (-0.21%)

Summary

↑ Buy

Moving Avg:

Buy (12)

Sell (0)

Indicators:

Buy (7)

Sell (0)

GBP/USD

1.2161

+0.0036 (+0.30%)

Summary

↑ Buy

Moving Avg:

Buy (12)

Sell (0)

Indicators:

Buy (7)

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USD/JPY

135.90

-0.68 (-0.49%)

Summary

↑ Sell

Moving Avg:

Buy (0)

Sell (12)

Indicators:

Buy (1)

Sell (9)

AUD/USD

0.6902

+0.0022 (+0.31%)

Summary

↑ Buy

Moving Avg:

Buy (12)

Sell (0)

Indicators:

Buy (5)

Sell (0)

USD/CAD

1.2893

+0.0001 (+0.01%)

Summary

↑ Sell

Moving Avg:

Buy (1)

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Indicators:

Buy (1)

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EUR/JPY

141.57

-1.01 (-0.71%)

Summary

Neutral

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Buy (2)

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Indicators:

Buy (3)

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EUR/CHF

0.9953

-0.0018 (-0.18%)

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↑ Sell

Moving Avg:

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Indicators:

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Gold Futures

1,818.25

+0.75 (+0.04%)

Summary

↑ Buy

Moving Avg:

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Indicators:

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Silver Futures

20.402

-0.336 (-1.62%)

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↑ Sell

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Buy (2)

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Indicators:

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Sell (6)

Copper Futures

3.7040

-0.0765 (-2.02%)

Summary

Neutral

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Indicators:

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Crude Oil WTI Futures

107.48

-2.30 (-2.10%)

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↑ Sell

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Brent Oil Futures

110.29

-2.16 (-1.92%)

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↑ Sell

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Natural Gas Futures

6.537

+0.039 (+0.60%)

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↑ Sell

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Indicators:

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US Coffee C Futures

229.18

+0.93 (+0.41%)

Summary

↑ Sell

Moving Avg:

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Indicators:

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Euro Stoxx 50

3,417.25

-97.07 (-2.76%)

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↑ Sell

Moving Avg:

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Indicators:

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S&P 500

3,745.60

-73.23 (-1.92%)

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↑ Sell

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Indicators:

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DAX

12,633.43

-369.92 (-2.84%)

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↑ Sell

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FTSE 100

7,118.90

-193.42 (-2.65%)

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↑ Sell

Moving Avg:

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Indicators:

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Sell (8)

Hang Seng

21,859.79

-137.10 (-0.62%)

Summary

Sell

Moving Avg:

Buy (1)

Sell (11)

Indicators:

Buy (3)

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US Small Cap 2000

1,678.50

-34.82 (-2.03%)

Summary

↑ Sell

Moving Avg:

Buy (0)

Sell (12)

Indicators:

Buy (0)

Sell (7)

IBEX 35

8,011.50

-176.50 (-2.16%)

Summary

↑ Sell

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Buy (0)

Sell (12)

Indicators:

Buy (2)

Sell (5)

BASF SE NA O.N.

39.875

-1.705 (-4.10%)

Summary

↑ Sell

Moving Avg:

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Indicators:

Buy (0)

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Bayer AG NA

56.48

-1.14 (-1.98%)

Summary

Neutral

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Indicators:

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Allianz SE VNA O.N.

180.26

-3.46 (-1.88%)

Summary

↑ Sell

Moving Avg:

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Adidas AG

166.50

-3.52 (-2.07%)

Summary

↑ Sell

Moving Avg:

Buy (1)

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Indicators:

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Deutsche Lufthansa AG

5.375

-0.438 (-7.53%)

Summary

↑ Sell

Moving Avg:

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Indicators:

Buy (2)

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Siemens AG Class N

96.37

-5.03 (-4.96%)

Summary

↑ Sell

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Deutsche Bank AG

8.164

-0.407 (-4.75%)

Summary

↑ Sell

Moving Avg:

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Indicators:

Buy (0)

Sell (8)

 EUR/USD1.0417↑ Buy
 GBP/USD1.2161↑ Buy
 USD/JPY135.90↑ Sell
 AUD/USD0.6902↑ Buy
 USD/CAD1.2893↑ Sell
 EUR/JPY141.57Neutral
 EUR/CHF0.9953↑ Sell
 Gold1,818.25↑ Buy
 Silver20.402↑ Sell
 Copper3.7040Neutral
 Crude Oil WTI107.48↑ Sell
 Brent Oil110.29↑ Sell
 Natural Gas6.537↑ Sell
 US Coffee C229.18↑ Sell
 Euro Stoxx 503,417.25↑ Sell
 S&P 5003,745.60↑ Sell
 DAX12,633.43↑ Sell
 FTSE 1007,118.90↑ Sell
 Hang Seng21,859.79Sell
 Small Cap 20001,678.50↑ Sell
 IBEX 358,011.50↑ Sell
 BASF39.875↑ Sell
 Bayer56.48Neutral
 Allianz180.26↑ Sell
 Adidas166.50↑ Sell
 Lufthansa5.375↑ Sell
 Siemens AG96.37↑ Sell
 Deutsche Bank AG8.164↑ Sell
Mua/Bán 1 chỉ SJC
# So hôm qua # Chênh TG
SJC Eximbank6,810/ 6,870
(5/ 5) # 1,764
SJC HCM6,830/ 6,890
(10/ 0) # 1,783
SJC Hanoi6,830/ 6,892
(10/ 0) # 1,785
SJC Danang6,830/ 6,892
(10/ 0) # 1,785
SJC Nhatrang6,830/ 6,892
(10/ 0) # 1,785
SJC Cantho6,830/ 6,892
(10/ 0) # 1,785
Cập nhật 30-06-2022 21:00:18
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ↀ Giá vàng thế giới
$1,818.16-0.91-0.05%
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Sản phẩmVùng 1Vùng 2
RON 95-V33.47034.130
RON 95-III32.87033.520
E5 RON 92-II31.30031.920
DO 0.05S30.01030.610
DO 0,001S-V30.81031.420
Dầu hỏa 2-K28.78029.350
ↂ Giá dầu thô thế giới
WTI$106.41+1.941.79%
Brent$110.00+1.91.70%
$ Tỷ giá Vietcombank
Ngoại tệMua vàoBán ra
USD23.105,0023.415,00
EUR23.704,3925.032,07
GBP27.520,9428.694,87
JPY165,73175,46
KRW15,5118,90
Cập nhật lúc 18:51:16 30/06/2022
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