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U.S. dollar weakens as risk appetite rises with data showing slowdown

By Gertrude Chavez-Dreyfuss NEW YORK (Reuters) - The dollar slid against most currencies in choppy, thin trading on Friday as data signaled that the U.S. economy is cooling a bit,...
U.S. dollar weakens as risk appetite rises with data showing slowdown © Reuters. FILE PHOTO: Banknotes of Japanese yen and U.S. dollar are seen in this illustration picture taken September 23, 2022. REUTERS/Florence Lo/Illustration
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By Gertrude Chavez-Dreyfuss

NEW YORK (Reuters) - The dollar slid against most currencies in choppy, thin trading on Friday as data signaled that the U.S. economy is cooling a bit, reinforcing expectations of smaller interest rate increases from the Federal Reserve and improving investors' risk appetite.

The personal consumption expenditures (PCE) price index rose 0.1% last month after climbing 0.4% in October. In the 12 months through November, the PCE index increased 5.5% after advancing 6.1% in October.

Excluding the volatile food and energy components, the PCE index gained 0.2% after increasing 0.3% in October. The so-called core PCE price index rose 4.7% on a year-on-year basis in November after increasing 5.0% in October. The Fed tracks the PCE price indexes for its monetary policy.

Wall Street indexes ended higher on the day, while commodity currencies such as the Australian, New Zealand and Canadian dollars, which are highly sensitive to risk sentiment, also gained against the greenback. Investors also sold safe-haven Treasuries, pushing yields higher.

"Stocks are feeling a little more comfortable today. There seems to be no panic," said Amo Sahota, executive director at FX consulting firm Klarity FX in San Francisco.

"The inflation data is moving in the right direction, although not fast enough and the growth in the U.S. economy has not been hindered significantly. It's growing still at a gradual pace and there's no choking of the economy just yet," he added.

The Fed is widely expected to raise interest rates by just 25 basis points at its next policy meeting, in January, after multiple big increases.

In afternoon trading, the euro rose 0.2% against the dollar to $1.0619. The single European currency is on pace to end the week up 0.4%, its second straight week of gains.

Euro net longs also rose to 142,272 contracts, the largest since January 2021, according to U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission data released on Friday.

The Australian, New Zealand and Canadian currencies advanced against the U.S. dollar. The Aussie unit was up 0.4% at US$0.6710, the kiwi, or New Zealand dollar, gained 0.7% to US$0.6288. Against the Canadian dollar, the greenback fell 0.4% to C$1.3590.

The Canadian dollar also benefited from data showing that the Canadian economy grew by 0.1% in October versus September, with another 0.1% increase in GDP seen likely in November, Statistics Canada data showed.

Against the yen, however, the dollar rose 0.4% to 132.82 yen . The dollar though, was on track for a weekly drop of 2.8% after the Bank of Japan (BOJ) tweaked a key bond market policy earlier this week.

CFTC data showed net yen shorts declined to 40,881 contracts, the smallest since August.

A second report on Friday showed new orders for U.S.-made capital goods rose moderately in November while shipments fell, pointing to a slowdown in business spending on equipment this quarter as higher borrowing costs cool demand for goods.

Orders for non-defense capital goods excluding aircraft, a closely watched proxy for business spending plans, rose 0.2% last month, data showed. These so-called core capital goods orders increased 0.3% in October. However, shipments of core capital goods dipped 0.1% after increasing 1.4% in October.

Another piece of data showed U.S. consumers expect price pressures to moderate notably in the next year, with a benchmark survey on Friday showing the one-year inflation outlook dropping in December to the lowest in 18 months. This is a key number that Fed Chair Jerome Powell mentioned in one of his press briefings.

In what has been a brutal year for global markets, the dollar has surged almost 9% as the Fed has aggressively hiked rates to tame inflation.

The dollar index, however, has dropped more than 8% since hitting a 20-year high in September, with a sharp slowdown in U.S. inflation raising hopes that the Fed may soon end its tightening cycle.

The index was last little changed at 104.35.

========================================================

Currency bid prices at 4:02PM (2102 GMT)

Description RIC Last U.S. Close Pct Change YTD Pct High Bid Low Bid

Previous Change

Session

Dollar index 104.2700 104.3700 -0.08% 8.997% +104.5300 +104.1100

Euro/Dollar $1.0619 $1.0600 +0.20% -6.58% +$1.0633 +$1.0587

Dollar/Yen 132.8450 132.3800 +0.36% +15.41% +133.1350 +132.1700

Euro/Yen 141.06 140.22 +0.60% +8.23% +141.2100 +140.0800

Dollar/Swiss 0.9328 0.9312 +0.19% +2.28% +0.9344 +0.9288

Sterling/Dollar $1.2050 $1.2037 +0.09% -10.91% +$1.2089 +$1.2020

Dollar/Canadian 1.3590 1.3647 -0.40% +7.50% +1.3658 +1.3563

Aussie/Dollar $0.6722 $0.6669 +0.76% -7.55% +$0.6725 +$0.6662

Euro/Swiss 0.9907 0.9867 +0.41% -4.46% +0.9924 +0.9866

Euro/Sterling 0.8812 0.8797 +0.17% +4.90% +0.8825 +0.8784

NZ $0.6290 $0.6248 +0.65% -8.12% +$0.6304 +$0.6235

Dollar/Dollar

Dollar/Norway 9.8730 9.8775 -0.05% +12.07% +9.9150 +9.8335

Euro/Norway 10.4838 10.4550 +0.28% +4.70% +10.5130 +10.4325

Dollar/Sweden 10.5163 10.4683 +0.69% +16.62% +10.5386 +10.4276

Euro/Sweden 11.1704 11.0944 +0.69% +9.15% +11.1881 +11.0850

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EUR/USD

1.0658

-0.0008 (-0.07%)

Summary

↑ Sell

Moving Avg:

Buy (0)

Sell (12)

Indicators:

Buy (2)

Sell (3)

EUR/USD

1.0658

-0.0008 (-0.07%)

Summary

↑ Sell

Moving Avg:

Buy (0)

Sell (12)

Indicators:

Buy (2)

Sell (3)

GBP/USD

1.2475

-0.0015 (-0.12%)

Summary

↑ Sell

Moving Avg:

Buy (0)

Sell (12)

Indicators:

Buy (0)

Sell (10)

USD/JPY

157.91

+0.12 (+0.07%)

Summary

↑ Buy

Moving Avg:

Buy (12)

Sell (0)

Indicators:

Buy (9)

Sell (0)

AUD/USD

0.6469

-0.0003 (-0.05%)

Summary

Neutral

Moving Avg:

Buy (10)

Sell (2)

Indicators:

Buy (2)

Sell (3)

USD/CAD

1.3780

+0.0003 (+0.03%)

Summary

↑ Buy

Moving Avg:

Buy (12)

Sell (0)

Indicators:

Buy (7)

Sell (0)

EUR/JPY

168.32

+0.10 (+0.06%)

Summary

↑ Buy

Moving Avg:

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Sell (0)

Indicators:

Buy (9)

Sell (0)

EUR/CHF

0.9808

+0.0001 (+0.01%)

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Neutral

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Buy (0)

Sell (12)

Indicators:

Buy (3)

Sell (2)

Gold Futures

2,295.80

-7.10 (-0.31%)

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Sell (12)

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Silver Futures

26.677

+0.023 (+0.09%)

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↑ Sell

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Buy (2)

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Sell (9)

Copper Futures

4.5305

-0.0105 (-0.23%)

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Crude Oil WTI Futures

81.14

-0.79 (-0.96%)

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85.62

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1.946

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213.73

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4,920.55

-60.54 (-1.22%)

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S&P 500

5,035.69

-80.48 (-1.57%)

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17,921.95

-196.37 (-1.08%)

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FTSE 100

8,144.13

-2.90 (-0.04%)

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Sell

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17,763.03

+16.12 (+0.09%)

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1,973.05

-42.98 (-2.13%)

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10,854.40

-246.40 (-2.22%)

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Neutral

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BASF SE NA O.N.

49.155

+0.100 (+0.20%)

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Bayer AG NA

27.35

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266.60

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Adidas AG

226.40

-5.90 (-2.54%)

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Deutsche Lufthansa AG

6.714

-0.028 (-0.42%)

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Siemens AG Class N

175.90

-1.74 (-0.98%)

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Deutsche Bank AG

15.010

-0.094 (-0.62%)

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    EUR/USD 1.0658 ↑ Sell  
    GBP/USD 1.2475 ↑ Sell  
    USD/JPY 157.91 ↑ Buy  
    AUD/USD 0.6469 Neutral  
    USD/CAD 1.3780 ↑ Buy  
    EUR/JPY 168.32 ↑ Buy  
    EUR/CHF 0.9808 Neutral  
    Gold 2,295.80 ↑ Sell  
    Silver 26.677 ↑ Sell  
    Copper 4.5305 ↑ Buy  
    Crude Oil WTI 81.14 ↑ Sell  
    Brent Oil 85.62 ↑ Sell  
    Natural Gas 1.946 ↑ Sell  
    US Coffee C 213.73 ↑ Sell  
    Euro Stoxx 50 4,920.55 ↑ Sell  
    S&P 500 5,035.69 ↑ Sell  
    DAX 17,921.95 ↑ Sell  
    FTSE 100 8,144.13 Sell  
    Hang Seng 17,763.03 ↑ Sell  
    Small Cap 2000 1,973.05 ↑ Sell  
    IBEX 35 10,854.40 Neutral  
    BASF 49.155 ↑ Sell  
    Bayer 27.35 ↑ Sell  
    Allianz 266.60 ↑ Sell  
    Adidas 226.40 ↑ Sell  
    Lufthansa 6.714 Neutral  
    Siemens AG 175.90 ↑ Sell  
    Deutsche Bank AG 15.010 Neutral  
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