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U.S. dollar likely has further upside vs yen despite BOJ move -Goldman

NEW YORK (Reuters) - The Bank of Japan, which widened the trading band for 10-year Japanese government bonds (JGBs) on Tuesday, may have inflicted damage on the dollar against the...
U.S. dollar likely has further upside vs yen despite BOJ move -Goldman © Reuters. FILE PHOTO: Japanese yen and U.S. dollar banknotes are seen in this illustration picture taken June 15, 2022. REUTERS/Florence Lo/Illustration
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NEW YORK (Reuters) - The Bank of Japan, which widened the trading band for 10-year Japanese government bonds (JGBs) on Tuesday, may have inflicted damage on the dollar against the yen, but Goldman Sachs (NYSE:GS) analysts said there was further room for the greenback to rise.

On Tuesday, the dollar plunged as much as 4% against the yen, its largest daily percentage fall since 1998. The U.S. currency, however, rebounded on Wednesday, and was last up 0.4% at 132.28 yen.

In Wednesday's research note, Goldman said the path for the yen depended on whether the BOJ move was a technical adjustment as the central bank had pointed out, or the start of a tighter monetary policy regime.

Goldman assumed that, for now, the BOJ move was a technical adjustment and a "sign that policy rates could be adjusted further in coming month", although the basic BOJ framework remained unchanged.

In the bank's baseline scenario, Treasury yields will continue to have "more degrees of freedom" than JGBs, noting that U.S. front-end rates "are overpricing recession odds, and underpricing the Fed cycle". This should drive dollar/yen higher over the coming months, Goldman noted.

For now, however, Goldman is closing its long dollar/yen position as the market is likely to price in a more meaningful BOJ policy change, which the U.S. investment bank said is a real possibility.

"We are placing our forecasts under review while we reassess."

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01-05-2024 10:45:17 (UTC+7)

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EUR/USD

1.0658

-0.0008 (-0.07%)

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    EUR/USD 1.0658 ↑ Sell  
    GBP/USD 1.2475 ↑ Sell  
    USD/JPY 157.91 ↑ Buy  
    AUD/USD 0.6469 Neutral  
    USD/CAD 1.3780 ↑ Buy  
    EUR/JPY 168.32 ↑ Buy  
    EUR/CHF 0.9808 Neutral  
    Gold 2,295.80 ↑ Sell  
    Silver 26.677 ↑ Sell  
    Copper 4.5305 ↑ Buy  
    Crude Oil WTI 81.14 ↑ Sell  
    Brent Oil 85.62 ↑ Sell  
    Natural Gas 1.946 ↑ Sell  
    US Coffee C 213.73 ↑ Sell  
    Euro Stoxx 50 4,920.55 ↑ Sell  
    S&P 500 5,035.69 ↑ Sell  
    DAX 17,921.95 ↑ Sell  
    FTSE 100 8,144.13 Sell  
    Hang Seng 17,763.03 ↑ Sell  
    Small Cap 2000 1,973.05 ↑ Sell  
    IBEX 35 10,854.40 Neutral  
    BASF 49.155 ↑ Sell  
    Bayer 27.35 ↑ Sell  
    Allianz 266.60 ↑ Sell  
    Adidas 226.40 ↑ Sell  
    Lufthansa 6.714 Neutral  
    Siemens AG 175.90 ↑ Sell  
    Deutsche Bank AG 15.010 Neutral  
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