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  4. The Home Improvement Sector is 'Better Than You Think' - Morgan Stanley
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The Home Improvement Sector is 'Better Than You Think' - Morgan Stanley

By Sam Boughedda In a note on Tuesday, a Morgan Stanley analyst provided positive commentary on home improvement stocks, saying the sector is "better than you think." "Our updated...
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The Home Improvement Sector is 'Better Than You Think' - Morgan Stanley © Reuters The Home Improvement Sector is 'Better Than You Think' - Morgan Stanley

By Sam Boughedda

In a note on Tuesday, a Morgan Stanley analyst provided positive commentary on home improvement stocks, saying the sector is "better than you think."

"Our updated regression-based 'Trend' Demand model suggests reversion of 'excess' dollars is almost complete. Based on inputs from U.S. Econ and Housing strategists, we expect the Home Improvement category to grow 1.4% in '23, meaning HD and LOW could comp positively if they hold share," wrote the analyst.

He explained that the market may be looking for a multi-year reversion, but the category could grow again in 2023.

"Based on forecasts from U.S. Econ and Housing strategists, our model produces 1.4% 'Trend' Demand growth in '23, with decelerating quarterly growth throughout the year. We expect sharply negative Existing Home Sales growth in 2H'22 and 1H'23 to drag down demand and produce negative retail sales growth in Q4'23. But as long as the housing market and GDP grow modestly thereafter, we also see a theoretical path to growth in '24 as well. Since the entirety of the 'excess' wallet share-driven dollars should be given back by the end of '22, there should no longer be a significant gap between 'Trend'-Implied Retail Sales and actual Retail Sales in '23 and beyond," the analyst added.

Focusing specifically on Home Depot (NYSE:HD) and Lowe's (NYSE:LOW), the analyst explained that they have historically outgrown the broader Home Improvement category, so "if positive trend demand materializes in '23, HD and LOW could comp positively."

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01-05-2024 10:45:17 (UTC+7)

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    EUR/USD 1.0658 ↑ Sell  
    GBP/USD 1.2475 ↑ Sell  
    USD/JPY 157.91 ↑ Buy  
    AUD/USD 0.6469 Neutral  
    USD/CAD 1.3780 ↑ Buy  
    EUR/JPY 168.32 ↑ Buy  
    EUR/CHF 0.9808 Neutral  
    Gold 2,295.80 ↑ Sell  
    Silver 26.677 ↑ Sell  
    Copper 4.5305 ↑ Buy  
    Crude Oil WTI 81.14 ↑ Sell  
    Brent Oil 85.62 ↑ Sell  
    Natural Gas 1.946 ↑ Sell  
    US Coffee C 213.73 ↑ Sell  
    Euro Stoxx 50 4,920.55 ↑ Sell  
    S&P 500 5,035.69 ↑ Sell  
    DAX 17,921.95 ↑ Sell  
    FTSE 100 8,144.13 Sell  
    Hang Seng 17,763.03 ↑ Sell  
    Small Cap 2000 1,973.05 ↑ Sell  
    IBEX 35 10,854.40 Neutral  
    BASF 49.155 ↑ Sell  
    Bayer 27.35 ↑ Sell  
    Allianz 266.60 ↑ Sell  
    Adidas 226.40 ↑ Sell  
    Lufthansa 6.714 Neutral  
    Siemens AG 175.90 ↑ Sell  
    Deutsche Bank AG 15.010 Neutral  
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