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Oil recoups last week’s loss on softer rate hike, stronger demand signals

By Barani Krishnan AiVIF.com -- The softening inflation game in the United States is helping oil bulls out, though rising crude prices on their own might ultimately lead to...
Oil recoups last week’s loss on softer rate hike, stronger demand signals  © Reuters.
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By Barani Krishnan

AiVIF.com -- The softening inflation game in the United States is helping oil bulls out, though rising crude prices on their own might ultimately lead to higher inflation.

New York-traded WTI, or West Texas Intermediate, crude for February delivery was up $1.39, or 1.8%, to $79.78 per barrel by 13:50 ET (18:50 GMT) after a session high at $79.85.  The U.S. crude benchmark was headed for an 8.2% gain on the week, after an 8.4% tumble last week.

London-traded Brent crude for March delivery was up $1.08, or 1.3%, to $85.11, after an intraday peak at $85.18. That put the global crude benchmark on track to an 8.3% rise this week, after last week’s drop of 8.5%.

Inflation, as indicated by the Consumer Price Index, or CPI, rose by 6.5% in the 12 months to December, the Labor Department said Thursday. It was the slowest annual advance for the CPI since October 2021 and indicated smaller rate hikes ahead by the Federal Reserve, which raised rates aggressively last year to curb price pressures.

Adding to the Labor Department data, the University of Michigan's closely-watched survey of consumers said on Friday that year-ahead inflation expectations among Americans has fallen for a fourth straight month in January, dipping to 4.0% from 4.4% in December. It was the lowest reading for price pressures since April 2021, the survey said.

The lower inflation readings are bolstering expectations that the Federal Reserve will keep to smaller rate hikes this year that would greatly assist businesses in the country, after the aggressive increases last year that sent tremors across markets. Those expectations have bolstered risk appetite in most forms this week, including in oil.

The Fed raised interest rates seven times last year, adding 425 basis points to rates which prior to that peaked at just 25 basis points, in the aftermath of the coronavirus pandemic. The central bank shocked markets by executing four back-to-back hikes of 75 basis points from June through November, before resorting to a modest 50-basis point increase in December. 

For its next rate decision on Feb. 1, economists expect the central bank to announce an even smaller hike of 25 basis points. The last time the Fed announced a 25 basis-point increase was in March 2022, at the start of its current rate hike cycle.

This week’s rebound in crude prices, coming after last week’s drop of more than 8% on both WTI and Brent that marked the worst annual debut in years for oil, could continue on the back of improving demand from China as the top energy importer tries to make a vigorous comeback from its own coronavirus crisis, some analysts said. 

Others said recent bids for crude by European buyers could lead to renewed upward price pressure in commodities, with oil being a key driver of inflation.

“Energy traders are starting to price in a little bit more crude demand coming out of Europe and not just China,” said Ed Moya, analyst at online trading platform OANDA. “The oil market is looking like it will remain tight.”

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BROKERS ĐƯỢC CẤP PHÉP
net_home_top Ai VIF
07-06-2023 07:01:51 (UTC+7)

EUR/USD

1.0701

+0.0008 (+0.07%)

Summary

↑ Buy

Moving Avg:

Buy (12)

Sell (0)

Indicators:

Buy (7)

Sell (1)

EUR/USD

1.0701

+0.0008 (+0.07%)

Summary

↑ Buy

Moving Avg:

Buy (12)

Sell (0)

Indicators:

Buy (7)

Sell (1)

GBP/USD

1.2433

+0.0009 (+0.07%)

Summary

↑ Buy

Moving Avg:

Buy (12)

Sell (0)

Indicators:

Buy (8)

Sell (0)

USD/JPY

139.50

-0.14 (-0.10%)

Summary

↑ Sell

Moving Avg:

Buy (0)

Sell (12)

Indicators:

Buy (0)

Sell (9)

AUD/USD

0.6682

+0.0011 (+0.16%)

Summary

↑ Buy

Moving Avg:

Buy (12)

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Indicators:

Buy (9)

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USD/CAD

1.3396

-0.0007 (-0.05%)

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EUR/JPY

149.28

-0.04 (-0.03%)

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Sell (8)

EUR/CHF

0.9704

-0.0001 (-0.01%)

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Gold Futures

1,980.15

-1.35 (-0.07%)

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Silver Futures

23.692

+0.022 (+0.09%)

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Copper Futures

3.7702

+0.0037 (+0.10%)

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Crude Oil WTI Futures

71.67

-0.07 (-0.10%)

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Brent Oil Futures

76.22

+0.25 (+0.33%)

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Natural Gas Futures

2.264

+0.005 (+0.22%)

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US Coffee C Futures

184.08

+0.98 (+0.54%)

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Euro Stoxx 50

4,295.22

+1.98 (+0.05%)

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Sell

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S&P 500

4,283.85

+10.06 (+0.24%)

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DAX

15,992.44

+28.55 (+0.18%)

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FTSE 100

7,628.10

+28.11 (+0.37%)

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19,099.28

-9.22 (-0.05%)

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US Small Cap 2000

1,856.34

+49.63 (+2.75%)

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9,310.80

+21.70 (+0.23%)

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46.760

+0.225 (+0.48%)

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52.28

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210.50

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Adidas AG

159.68

+1.38 (+0.87%)

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Deutsche Lufthansa AG

9.141

+0.030 (+0.33%)

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Siemens AG Class N

158.36

-0.16 (-0.10%)

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Deutsche Bank AG

9.784

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    EUR/USD 1.0701 ↑ Buy  
    GBP/USD 1.2433 ↑ Buy  
    USD/JPY 139.50 ↑ Sell  
    AUD/USD 0.6682 ↑ Buy  
    USD/CAD 1.3396 ↑ Sell  
    EUR/JPY 149.28 ↑ Sell  
    EUR/CHF 0.9704 ↑ Sell  
    Gold 1,980.15 ↑ Sell  
    Silver 23.692 Buy  
    Copper 3.7702 ↑ Buy  
    Crude Oil WTI 71.67 Neutral  
    Brent Oil 76.22 ↑ Buy  
    Natural Gas 2.264 ↑ Sell  
    US Coffee C 184.08 ↑ Buy  
    Euro Stoxx 50 4,295.22 Sell  
    S&P 500 4,283.85 Buy  
    DAX 15,992.44 ↑ Sell  
    FTSE 100 7,628.10 ↑ Sell  
    Hang Seng 19,099.28 ↑ Buy  
    Small Cap 2000 1,856.34 ↑ Buy  
    IBEX 35 9,310.80 ↑ Buy  
    BASF 46.760 ↑ Sell  
    Bayer 52.28 ↑ Buy  
    Allianz 210.50 Sell  
    Adidas 159.68 Neutral  
    Lufthansa 9.141 ↑ Buy  
    Siemens AG 158.36 Neutral  
    Deutsche Bank AG 9.784 Neutral  
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# So hôm qua # Chênh TG
SJC Eximbank6,640/ 6,680
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Cập nhật 07-06-2023 07:01:53
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ↀ Giá vàng thế giới
$1,963.39 +1.75 0.09%
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Sản phẩm Vùng 1 Vùng 2
RON 95-V22.79023.240
RON 95-III22.01022.450
E5 RON 92-II20.87021.280
DO 0.05S17.94018.290
DO 0,001S-V18.80019.170
Dầu hỏa 2-K17.77018.120
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WTI $71.82 -0.21 -0.00%
Brent $75.92 -0.52 -0.01%
$ Tỷ giá Vietcombank
Ngoại tệMua vàoBán ra
USD23.290,0023.660,00
EUR24.512,7325.885,30
GBP28.465,8729.679,67
JPY163,63173,22
KRW15,6419,05
Cập nhật lúc 06:57:04 07/06/2023
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