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Oil extends gains as slowing U.S. inflation signals smaller rate hikes ahead

By Barani Krishnan AiVIF.com -- Oil bulls seem to have had their prayers answered by the inflation gods. The U.S. CPI, or Consumer Price Index, report for December came in at...
Oil extends gains as slowing U.S. inflation signals smaller rate hikes ahead © Reuters
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By Barani Krishnan

AiVIF.com -- Oil bulls seem to have had their prayers answered by the inflation gods.

The U.S. CPI, or Consumer Price Index, report for December came in at the lows forecast by economists, bolstering expectations that the Federal Reserve will keep to smaller rate hikes this year that would greatly assist businesses in the country, after the aggressive increases last year that sent tremors across markets. That naturally bolstered risk appetite in most forms today, including in oil.

Crude futures rose for a fifth time in seven days, with New York-traded WTI, or West Texas Intermediate, for February delivery up $1.16, or 1.5%, to $78.57 per barrel by 12:20 ET (17:20 GMT) after a session high at $79.16. The U.S. benchmark was headed for a 6.7% gain on the week, after an 8.4% tumble last week.

London-traded Brent crude for March delivery was up $1.50, or 1.8%, to $84.17, after an intraday peak at $81.61. That put the global crude benchmark on track to a 7% rise this week, after last week’s drop of 8.5%.

Inflation, as indicated by the CPI, rose by 6.5% in the 12 months to December, the Labor Department said Thursday. It was the slowest annual advance for the CPI since October 2021 and indicated smaller rate hikes ahead by the Federal Reserve, which raised rates aggressively last year to curb price pressures. 

The CPI hit a 40-year high in June when it grew at an annual rate of 9.1%, versus the Fed's inflation target of just 2% per annum. In a bid to control surging prices, the central bank added 425 basis points to interest rates since March via seven rate hikes. Prior to that, interest rates peaked at just 25 basis points, as the central bank slashed them to nearly zero after the global COVID-19 outbreak in 2020. The Fed, which executed four back-to-back jumbo rate hikes of 75 basis points from June through November, imposed a more modest 50-basis point increase in December. 

For its next rate decision on Feb. 1, economists expect the central bank to announce an even smaller hike of 25 basis points.

The Fed funds rate — a tool used to gauge the odds for a certain quantum of rate hike — was at over 80% on Thursday for a Fed increase of 25 basis points in February. The dollar, which rises as U.S. interest rates spike and falls as they slow, was at a six-month low versus a basket of six major currencies that included the euro and the yen.

“The Fed funds market is now more confident in 25 bps at 81% for the Feb 1 meeting and the U.S. dollar is now sinking,” economist Adam Button said in a post on the ForexLive forum.

The last the Fed announced a 25 basis-point increase was in March 2022, at the start of its current rate hike cycle.

Crude prices had one of their worst starts to a trading year when both WTI and Brent fell more than 8% in their opening week for 2023.

The slump came on the back of worries about a global recession and how quickly demand could recover in top oil-importing country China, which was just emerging from a protracted and severe coronavirus lockdown. On top of that, the start of the 2022/23 winter cycle is proving to be one of the warmest in two decades, sharply reducing the need for not just natural gas but also heating oil over the past few weeks.

Weekly oil inventory data released on Wednesday by the U.S. EIA, or Energy Information Administration, reflected this.

Crude stockpiles jumped by almost 19 million barrels last week, or 11 times more from the previous week, the EIA reported. The build bucked market expectations for an inventory drop at a time when demand is typically higher as refiners use crude to build product supply, particularly in heating oil, for the winter.

Analysts had expected a crude draw of around 2.2M barrels instead for last week.

“I think refiners just had a slowdown in product putouts last week because the weather hasn’t been cold enough, to necessitate creation of, say, more heating oil,” said John Kilduff, founding partner at New York energy hedge fund Again Capital. 

The start of the 2022/23 winter season has been marked by abnormally high temperatures, with the daily average over the past week at around 45 degrees Fahrenheit (7 Celsius) as opposed to the 35-25 degree Fahrenheit range (around 2 to -2 Celsius) common for this time of year.

Inventories of distillates, which are refined into heating diesel, diesel for trucks, buses, trains and ships and fuel for jets, fell by 1.069M barrels last week, the EIA said, more than the forecast decline of 472,000 barrels. In the previous week, distillate stockpiles fell by 1.427M barrels.

On the gasoline front, inventories rose by 4.114M barrels last week, versus expectations for a build of just under 1.2M barrels. In the previous week, gasoline balances declined by 346,000 barrels. Gasoline is America’s premier automobile fuel.

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04-03-2024 15:39:41 (UTC+7)

EUR/USD

1.0842

+0.0005 (+0.05%)

Summary

Neutral

Moving Avg:

Buy (5)

Sell (7)

Indicators:

Buy (5)

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EUR/USD

1.0842

+0.0005 (+0.05%)

Summary

Neutral

Moving Avg:

Buy (5)

Sell (7)

Indicators:

Buy (5)

Sell (4)

GBP/USD

1.2671

+0.0021 (+0.17%)

Summary

Buy

Moving Avg:

Buy (8)

Sell (4)

Indicators:

Buy (5)

Sell (3)

USD/JPY

150.27

+0.16 (+0.11%)

Summary

↑ Buy

Moving Avg:

Buy (10)

Sell (2)

Indicators:

Buy (5)

Sell (1)

AUD/USD

0.6521

-0.0003 (-0.04%)

Summary

↑ Sell

Moving Avg:

Buy (2)

Sell (10)

Indicators:

Buy (3)

Sell (7)

USD/CAD

1.3564

+0.0008 (+0.06%)

Summary

↑ Buy

Moving Avg:

Buy (12)

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Buy (6)

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EUR/JPY

162.93

+0.32 (+0.20%)

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Buy

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Buy (6)

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Buy (6)

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EUR/CHF

0.9566

-0.0016 (-0.17%)

Summary

↑ Buy

Moving Avg:

Buy (8)

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Indicators:

Buy (8)

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Gold Futures

2,093.05

-2.65 (-0.13%)

Summary

Neutral

Moving Avg:

Buy (6)

Sell (6)

Indicators:

Buy (2)

Sell (5)

Silver Futures

23.328

-0.036 (-0.15%)

Summary

↑ Sell

Moving Avg:

Buy (2)

Sell (10)

Indicators:

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Sell (8)

Copper Futures

3.8712

+0.0097 (+0.25%)

Summary

↑ Sell

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Buy (4)

Sell (8)

Indicators:

Buy (0)

Sell (9)

Crude Oil WTI Futures

80.37

+0.40 (+0.50%)

Summary

↑ Buy

Moving Avg:

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Indicators:

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Brent Oil Futures

84.05

+0.50 (+0.60%)

Summary

↑ Buy

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Natural Gas Futures

1.886

+0.051 (+2.78%)

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↑ Buy

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US Coffee C Futures

184.13

-0.22 (-0.12%)

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Euro Stoxx 50

4,902.55

+7.69 (+0.16%)

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Buy

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Buy (5)

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S&P 500

5,137.08

+40.81 (+0.80%)

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↑ Buy

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DAX

17,722.55

-12.45 (-0.07%)

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FTSE 100

7,664.75

-17.75 (-0.23%)

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Hang Seng

16,595.97

+6.53 (+0.04%)

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↑ Buy

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Buy (10)

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US Small Cap 2000

2,076.39

+21.55 (+1.05%)

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↑ Buy

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IBEX 35

10,063.50

-1.20 (-0.01%)

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BASF SE NA O.N.

47.528

-0.457 (-0.95%)

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Bayer AG NA

28.25

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Allianz SE VNA O.N.

251.82

+0.02 (+0.01%)

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Adidas AG

187.18

+0.18 (+0.10%)

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Deutsche Lufthansa AG

7.123

-0.068 (-0.95%)

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Siemens AG Class N

181.59

+0.31 (+0.17%)

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Deutsche Bank AG

12.450

-0.116 (-0.92%)

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Sell (9)

    EUR/USD 1.0842 Neutral  
    GBP/USD 1.2671 Buy  
    USD/JPY 150.27 ↑ Buy  
    AUD/USD 0.6521 ↑ Sell  
    USD/CAD 1.3564 ↑ Buy  
    EUR/JPY 162.93 Buy  
    EUR/CHF 0.9566 ↑ Buy  
    Gold 2,093.05 Neutral  
    Silver 23.328 ↑ Sell  
    Copper 3.8712 ↑ Sell  
    Crude Oil WTI 80.37 ↑ Buy  
    Brent Oil 84.05 ↑ Buy  
    Natural Gas 1.886 ↑ Buy  
    US Coffee C 184.13 Neutral  
    Euro Stoxx 50 4,902.55 Buy  
    S&P 500 5,137.08 ↑ Buy  
    DAX 17,722.55 ↑ Sell  
    FTSE 100 7,664.75 ↑ Sell  
    Hang Seng 16,595.97 ↑ Buy  
    Small Cap 2000 2,076.39 ↑ Buy  
    IBEX 35 10,063.50 ↑ Sell  
    BASF 47.528 ↑ Sell  
    Bayer 28.25 ↑ Buy  
    Allianz 251.82 Neutral  
    Adidas 187.18 ↑ Buy  
    Lufthansa 7.123 ↑ Sell  
    Siemens AG 181.59 ↑ Sell  
    Deutsche Bank AG 12.450 ↑ Sell  
Mua/Bán 1 chỉ SJC
# So hôm qua # Chênh TG
SJC Eximbank7,850/ 8,000
(50/ 50) # 1,755
SJC HCM7,860/ 8,060
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SJC Hanoi7,860/ 8,062
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SJC Danang7,860/ 8,062
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SJC Nhatrang7,860/ 8,062
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SJC Cantho7,860/ 8,062
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Cập nhật 04-03-2024 15:39:43
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ↀ Giá vàng thế giới
$2,084.38 +0.9 0.04%
Live 24 hour Gold Chart
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Sản phẩm Vùng 1 Vùng 2
RON 95-V24.43024.910
RON 95-III23.92024.390
E5 RON 92-II22.75023.200
DO 0.05S20.77021.180
DO 0,001S-V21.76022.190
Dầu hỏa 2-K20.78021.190
ↂ Giá dầu thô thế giới
WTI $79.70 +2.24 0.03%
Brent $83.62 +1.91 0.02%
$ Tỷ giá Vietcombank
Ngoại tệMua vàoBán ra
USD24.500,0024.870,00
EUR26.109,9627.542,83
GBP30.490,1031.787,53
JPY159,34168,65
KRW16,0519,45
Cập nhật lúc 15:25:35 04/03/2024
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