Moderna stock target raised at Morgan Stanley as analysts see $30B+ market for PCV

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By Senad Karaahmetovic

Morgan Stanley analysts raised the price target on Moderna (NASDAQ:MRNA) stock to $209 per share from the prior $170 after updating the model to account for the personal cancer vaccine (PCV) opportunity.

The analysts expect Merck (NYSE:MRK) and Moderna to start Phase 3 PCV studies next year. They estimate a $30.7 billion potential adjuvant market size in the United States and Europe.

“We have increased our melanoma POS to 80% from 60% after the data and have also increased our POS across the other PCV opportunities that we model (Lung, H&N, Bladder and CRC) from 30% to 50% - translating to risk-adjusted 2030E sales of ~$3B (up from ~$1.8B previously),” the analysts explained in a client note.

As far as the accelerated approval based on the Phase 2 results is concerned, they believe the U.S. Food and Drug Administration (FDA) is likely to wait for the Phase 3 study before approving the drug.

“Historical approval data of immunotherapies suggests that full approval based on positive results from Ph3 studies is the most likely pathway for seeking approval in the neoadjuvant/adjuvant setting. That said, given this is a combination on top of a known highly active agent, we believe there is at least some potential for an early filing path, albeit not our base case assumption,” they added.

Moderna stock price closed at $207.25 yesterday.