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Marketmind: Precarious landing zone

(Reuters) - A look at the day ahead in U.S. and global markets from Mike Dolan. Markets may be leaning toward a 'soft landing' for the U.S. economy, but treacherous winds still...
Marketmind: Precarious landing zone © Reuters. Traders work on the floor of the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE) in New York City, U.S., August 15, 2022. REUTERS/Brendan McDermid/File Photo

(Reuters) - A look at the day ahead in U.S. and global markets from Mike Dolan.

Markets may be leaning toward a 'soft landing' for the U.S. economy, but treacherous winds still surround the runway.

Wall St stocks have climbed for two solid months, prompting an almost 25% bounce in the S&P500 since mid-June. Hopes centre on commodity-driven inflation rates peaking, allowing the Federal Reserve to ease off the monetary brakes and guide a gentler economic slowdown that avoids a deep recession.

Although Monday's economic soundings from China, U.S. housing and New York manufacturing showed that a slowdown is well underway around the world, it also stokes narratives of 'peak inflation' and a less aggressive Fed. China's surprise rate cut on Monday underlined that.

Oil prices continued to ease on Tuesday and Brent crude is again eyeing its lowest levels since before the invasion of Ukraine in February, with global demand worries mixing with speculation about an Iran nuclear deal and U.S. shale oil output rising to pre-COVID levels. Barclays (LON:BARC) moved to cut its average Brent price view for this year and next.

The problem for the Fed and investors is that markets run ahead of themselves by reversing the tightening of overall financial conditions the Fed deems necessary to get inflation back to target.

A whopping 150-basis-point drop in U.S. junk bond spreads in little over a month speaks loudly to that, as does the more than half-point drop in 30-year mortgage rates since mid-year.

Jason Draho at UBS Global Wealth Management reckons a "disconnect" between buoyant stocks and the deeply inverted U.S. yield curve "implies one of them isn't right" - but it could be several weeks before that becomes any clearer.

U.S. July industrial production and housing starts top the data slate later on Tuesday, while earnings from Walmart (NYSE:WMT) and Home Depot (NYSE:HD) give a snapshot of what it's like in the shops.

On the dashboard, S&P500 futures and Treasury yields are mostly flat and the dollar stronger.

High commodity prices saw bumper earnings and a record dividend from miner BHP Group (NYSE:BHP), lifting its shares 4% and boosting the sector more broadly.

And in one circular flow from high oil prices, filings showed Saudi Arabia's Public Investment Fund (PIF) used swooning market prices to load up on U.S. stocks such as Alphabet (NASDAQ:GOOGL), Zoom and Microsoft (NASDAQ:MSFT) and whole host of mega caps.

Graphics:

Surprises https://fingfx.thomsonreuters.com/gfx/mkt/znpnernnzvl/Two.PNG

Junk Bonds https://fingfx.thomsonreuters.com/gfx/mkt/zdvxozkkdpx/One.PNG

U.S. financial conditions loosen https://fingfx.thomsonreuters.com/gfx/mkt/movangyzqpa/1BS0o-u-s-financial-conditions-loosen-significantly-after-june-hike.png

Key developments that may provide market direction on Tuesday:

--

* UK job creation disappoints as nominal wage growth picks up

* Earnings releases from Walmart and Home Depot

* US July Housing Starts/Permits

* US July industrial production

* Canada July CPI inflation

(Mike Dolan mike.dolan@thomsonreuters.com Twitter (NYSE:TWTR): @ReutersMikeD; Editing by Emelia Sithole-Matarise)

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29-09-2022 06:16:03 (UTC+7)

EUR/USD

0.9719

-0.0015 (-0.15%)

Summary

↑ Sell

Moving Avg:

Buy (0)

Sell (12)

Indicators:

Buy (2)

Sell (8)

EUR/USD

0.9719

-0.0015 (-0.15%)

Summary

↑ Sell

Moving Avg:

Buy (0)

Sell (12)

Indicators:

Buy (2)

Sell (8)

GBP/USD

1.0856

-0.0032 (-0.29%)

Summary

↑ Sell

Moving Avg:

Buy (0)

Sell (12)

Indicators:

Buy (0)

Sell (9)

USD/JPY

144.32

+0.15 (+0.11%)

Summary

↑ Buy

Moving Avg:

Buy (12)

Sell (0)

Indicators:

Buy (8)

Sell (0)

AUD/USD

0.6511

-0.0010 (-0.16%)

Summary

Neutral

Moving Avg:

Buy (5)

Sell (7)

Indicators:

Buy (4)

Sell (2)

USD/CAD

1.3621

+0.0016 (+0.12%)

Summary

↑ Buy

Moving Avg:

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EUR/JPY

140.26

-0.07 (-0.05%)

Summary

↑ Buy

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EUR/CHF

0.9496

-0.0005 (-0.05%)

Summary

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Moving Avg:

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Indicators:

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Sell (3)

Gold Futures

1,665.90

-4.10 (-0.25%)

Summary

↑ Sell

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Sell (12)

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Buy (0)

Sell (9)

Silver Futures

18.860

-0.020 (-0.11%)

Summary

Sell

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Copper Futures

3.3780

-0.0035 (-0.10%)

Summary

↑ Sell

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Crude Oil WTI Futures

81.78

-0.37 (-0.45%)

Summary

Neutral

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Buy (5)

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Indicators:

Buy (5)

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Brent Oil Futures

87.98

+3.11 (+3.66%)

Summary

↑ Buy

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Natural Gas Futures

6.998

-0.029 (-0.41%)

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US Coffee C Futures

227.80

+3.45 (+1.54%)

Summary

↑ Sell

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Buy (1)

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Euro Stoxx 50

3,335.30

+6.65 (+0.20%)

Summary

Neutral

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Sell (5)

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Sell (5)

S&P 500

3,719.04

+71.75 (+1.97%)

Summary

↑ Sell

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DAX

12,183.28

+43.60 (+0.36%)

Summary

Neutral

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FTSE 100

7,005.39

+20.80 (+0.30%)

Summary

Neutral

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Hang Seng

17,250.88

-609.43 (-3.41%)

Summary

Buy

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US Small Cap 2000

1,725.13

+62.62 (+3.77%)

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↑ Buy

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IBEX 35

7,442.20

-3.50 (-0.05%)

Summary

Neutral

Moving Avg:

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BASF SE NA O.N.

39.415

-0.080 (-0.20%)

Summary

↑ Buy

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Bayer AG NA

48.19

-0.07 (-0.13%)

Summary

Neutral

Moving Avg:

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Allianz SE VNA O.N.

160.72

-3.02 (-1.84%)

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↑ Buy

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Adidas AG

130.24

+2.94 (+2.31%)

Summary

↑ Buy

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Deutsche Lufthansa AG

5.772

-0.024 (-0.41%)

Summary

↑ Buy

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Siemens AG Class N

99.46

+1.54 (+1.57%)

Summary

↑ Buy

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Deutsche Bank AG

7.854

-0.274 (-3.37%)

Summary

↑ Sell

Moving Avg:

Buy (3)

Sell (9)

Indicators:

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Sell (7)

 EUR/USD0.9719↑ Sell
 GBP/USD1.0856↑ Sell
 USD/JPY144.32↑ Buy
 AUD/USD0.6511Neutral
 USD/CAD1.3621↑ Buy
 EUR/JPY140.26↑ Buy
 EUR/CHF0.9496↑ Sell
 Gold1,665.90↑ Sell
 Silver18.860Sell
 Copper3.3780↑ Sell
 Crude Oil WTI81.78Neutral
 Brent Oil87.98↑ Buy
 Natural Gas6.998↑ Sell
 US Coffee C227.80↑ Sell
 Euro Stoxx 503,335.30Neutral
 S&P 5003,719.04↑ Sell
 DAX12,183.28Neutral
 FTSE 1007,005.39Neutral
 Hang Seng17,250.88Buy
 Small Cap 20001,725.13↑ Buy
 IBEX 357,442.20Neutral
 BASF39.415↑ Buy
 Bayer48.19Neutral
 Allianz160.72↑ Buy
 Adidas130.24↑ Buy
 Lufthansa5.772↑ Buy
 Siemens AG99.46↑ Buy
 Deutsche Bank AG7.854↑ Sell
Mua/Bán 1 chỉ SJC
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SJC Eximbank6,410/ 6,510
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SJC Cantho6,420/ 6,522
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GBP24.732,3625.786,46
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