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Marketmind: Great expectations

14 Tháng Chín 2022
Marketmind: Great expectations © Reuters. Traders work on the floor of the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE) in New York City, U.S., September 9, 2022. REUTERS/Brendan McDermid
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A look at the day ahead in U.S. and global markets from Mike Dolan.

If reining in inflation expectations is the U.S. Federal Reserve's main task, it can count the latest surveys as a tactical victory at least.

World markets go into Tuesday's critical release of U.S. consumer price data for August with high hopes that inflation has already crested and is on the wane. Stock markets around the world edged higher and U.S. equity futures were set for further gains at the open. The dollar continued to ebb.

While consensus forecasts see headline annual inflation slip back further to 8.1% - a full percentage point below June's peak - 'core' rates, excluding food and energy, are expected to tick higher again to 6.1% from 5.9%.

But hopes the Fed's swingeing interest rate rises and the retreat in retail gasoline prices are changing households' inflation outlook were given a boost from Monday's release of the New York Fed's latest survey of the public.

While a drop in the median 3-year inflation expectation to near two-year low of 2.8% last month won't change forecasts for another 75 basis point Fed hike next week, it will give policymakers and markets some encouragement that the rate rises are working and moderate the extent of tightening needed.

As the Fed is also stepping up the pace of its balance sheet reduction, that optimism may be most important for the Treasury bond market - which saw lacklustre auctions of 3-year and 10-year debt on Monday and faces a 30-year bond sale on Tuesday. It was also a heavy day for sovereign debt sales in Germany, Italy and Japan.

The 25% drop in oil prices since midyear has been a big factor, but crude oil prices continued to edge back higher this week and Brent prices have firmed almost 10% since late last week on a variety of supply factors. Data released on Monday showed the U.S. Strategic Petroleum Reserve fell to its lowest since October 1984.

Still, stock investors were inclined to see the glass half-full for now, not least with portfolios already so light on equities.

Investor allocation to global stocks was at an all-time low for September, according to Bank of America (NYSE:BAC)'s monthly survey of fund managers around the world. Cash holdings were at a record high and 'long dollars' remained the world's 'most crowded trade', it said.

Fears for a global recession were reinforced by dour September sentiment surveys from Germany and mixed picture from the British labour market in the three months to July.

The Organisation for Economic Cooperation and Development, meantime, said G7 economic output on aggregate contracted by 0.4% in the second quarter of 2022 already.

In banking, UBS said it plans to increase its dividend by 10% and expects 2022 share repurchases to exceed its $5 billion goal.

Goldman Sachs (NYSE:GS) will cut jobs as early as this month after pausing the annual practice for two years during the pandemic.

Key developments that should provide more direction to U.S. markets later on Tuesday:

* U.S. August consumer price index

* U.S. Treasury auctions 30-year bonds

GRAPHIC: Inflation expectations https://fingfx.thomsonreuters.com/gfx/mkt/jnvwembakvw/One.PNG

GRAPHIC: Ukraine counteroffensive https://graphics.reuters.com/UKRAINE-CRISIS/lbvgnkwerpq/ukrainianCounteroffensive.jpg

GRAPHIC: Bets narrow https://graphics.reuters.com/USA-STOCKS/ELECTION/xmvjoajzrpr/chart.png

(By Mike Dolan; Editing by Muralikumar Anantharaman mike.dolan@thomsonreuters.com. Twitter (NYSE:TWTR): @reutersMikeD)

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26-09-2022 01:32:47 (UTC+7)

EUR/USD

0.9690

-0.0146 (-1.48%)

Summary

↑ Buy

Moving Avg:

Buy (12)

Sell (0)

Indicators:

Buy (6)

Sell (2)

EUR/USD

0.9690

-0.0146 (-1.48%)

Summary

↑ Buy

Moving Avg:

Buy (12)

Sell (0)

Indicators:

Buy (6)

Sell (2)

GBP/USD

1.0858

-0.0399 (-3.54%)

Summary

Neutral

Moving Avg:

Buy (6)

Sell (6)

Indicators:

Buy (4)

Sell (4)

USD/JPY

143.34

+0.99 (+0.69%)

Summary

Buy

Moving Avg:

Buy (7)

Sell (5)

Indicators:

Buy (5)

Sell (3)

AUD/USD

0.6526

-0.0117 (-1.76%)

Summary

↑ Sell

Moving Avg:

Buy (1)

Sell (11)

Indicators:

Buy (1)

Sell (5)

USD/CAD

1.3591

+0.0103 (+0.77%)

Summary

Neutral

Moving Avg:

Buy (7)

Sell (5)

Indicators:

Buy (3)

Sell (4)

EUR/JPY

138.90

-1.05 (-0.75%)

Summary

↑ Buy

Moving Avg:

Buy (12)

Sell (0)

Indicators:

Buy (7)

Sell (0)

EUR/CHF

0.9513

-0.0090 (-0.94%)

Summary

↑ Buy

Moving Avg:

Buy (12)

Sell (0)

Indicators:

Buy (8)

Sell (1)

Gold Futures

1,651.70

-29.40 (-1.75%)

Summary

↑ Sell

Moving Avg:

Buy (1)

Sell (11)

Indicators:

Buy (1)

Sell (9)

Silver Futures

18.835

-0.782 (-3.99%)

Summary

↑ Sell

Moving Avg:

Buy (5)

Sell (7)

Indicators:

Buy (0)

Sell (10)

Copper Futures

3.3485

-0.1225 (-3.53%)

Summary

↑ Sell

Moving Avg:

Buy (2)

Sell (10)

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Crude Oil WTI Futures

79.43

-4.06 (-4.86%)

Summary

Sell

Moving Avg:

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Brent Oil Futures

85.03

0.00 (0.00%)

Summary

Sell

Moving Avg:

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Natural Gas Futures

6.992

0.000 (0.00%)

Summary

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Sell (2)

US Coffee C Futures

220.15

-3.40 (-1.52%)

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↑ Sell

Moving Avg:

Buy (4)

Sell (8)

Indicators:

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Sell (8)

Euro Stoxx 50

3,348.60

-78.54 (-2.29%)

Summary

↑ Sell

Moving Avg:

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Sell (12)

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S&P 500

3,693.23

-64.76 (-1.72%)

Summary

↑ Buy

Moving Avg:

Buy (12)

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Indicators:

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DAX

12,284.19

-247.44 (-1.97%)

Summary

↑ Sell

Moving Avg:

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Sell (12)

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Sell (8)

FTSE 100

7,018.60

-140.92 (-1.97%)

Summary

Neutral

Moving Avg:

Buy (11)

Sell (1)

Indicators:

Buy (0)

Sell (6)

Hang Seng

17,933.27

-214.68 (-1.18%)

Summary

↑ Sell

Moving Avg:

Buy (0)

Sell (12)

Indicators:

Buy (0)

Sell (7)

US Small Cap 2000

1,676.17

-46.14 (-2.68%)

Summary

Neutral

Moving Avg:

Buy (7)

Sell (5)

Indicators:

Buy (2)

Sell (6)

IBEX 35

7,583.50

-191.20 (-2.46%)

Summary

↑ Sell

Moving Avg:

Buy (1)

Sell (11)

Indicators:

Buy (1)

Sell (6)

BASF SE NA O.N.

39.790

-1.210 (-2.95%)

Summary

Neutral

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Bayer AG NA

49.58

-1.92 (-3.74%)

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Allianz SE VNA O.N.

168.74

-3.48 (-2.02%)

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Adidas AG

130.96

-2.50 (-1.87%)

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Deutsche Lufthansa AG

5.674

-0.172 (-2.94%)

Summary

↑ Buy

Moving Avg:

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Siemens AG Class N

98.63

-0.43 (-0.43%)

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Deutsche Bank AG

8.632

-0.401 (-4.44%)

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Buy (1)

Sell (6)

    EUR/USD 0.9690 ↑ Buy  
    GBP/USD 1.0858 Neutral  
    USD/JPY 143.34 Buy  
    AUD/USD 0.6526 ↑ Sell  
    USD/CAD 1.3591 Neutral  
    EUR/JPY 138.90 ↑ Buy  
    EUR/CHF 0.9513 ↑ Buy  
    Gold 1,651.70 ↑ Sell  
    Silver 18.835 ↑ Sell  
    Copper 3.3485 ↑ Sell  
    Crude Oil WTI 79.43 Sell  
    Brent Oil 85.03 Sell  
    Natural Gas 6.992 ↑ Buy  
    US Coffee C 220.15 ↑ Sell  
    Euro Stoxx 50 3,348.60 ↑ Sell  
    S&P 500 3,693.23 ↑ Buy  
    DAX 12,284.19 ↑ Sell  
    FTSE 100 7,018.60 Neutral  
    Hang Seng 17,933.27 ↑ Sell  
    Small Cap 2000 1,676.17 Neutral  
    IBEX 35 7,583.50 ↑ Sell  
    BASF 39.790 Neutral  
    Bayer 49.58 ↑ Sell  
    Allianz 168.74 ↑ Sell  
    Adidas 130.96 ↑ Sell  
    Lufthansa 5.674 ↑ Buy  
    Siemens AG 98.63 ↑ Sell  
    Deutsche Bank AG 8.632 ↑ Sell  
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SJC Eximbank6,540/ 6,640
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