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Marketmind: Fed up? Square up

06 Tháng Giêng 2023
Marketmind: Fed up? Square up © Reuters. FILE PHOTO: A trader works on the trading floor at the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE) in New York City, U.S., January 5, 2023. REUTERS/Andrew Kelly/File Photo
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By Jamie McGeever

(Reuters) - A look at the day ahead in Asian markets from Jamie McGeever.

If Asian markets take their cue on Friday from Wall Street's slump on Thursday, they will likely succumb to a bout of profit-taking on what has been a fairly positive start to the year.

But the relative outperformance may not last. The deepening gloom surrounding the Fed and its 'higher for longer' stance on interest rates will surely spread to Asia - likely soon, depending on how the latest U.S. employment data pans out.

December's non-farm payrolls report on Friday comes at the end of a week in which surprisingly strong U.S. labor market data have pushed up Fed rate expectations, even though economic activity continues to scream slowdown if not recession.

US nonfarm payrolls - actual vs forecasts: https://fingfx.thomsonreuters.com/gfx/mkt/zgvobbqzdpd/PAYROLLS1.jpg

2023 Fed rate cut expectations: https://fingfx.thomsonreuters.com/gfx/mkt/akpeqqdxwpr/2023sofr2.png

The Fed's implied terminal rate, according to 'SOFR' rates futures, is back above 5% for the first time in a month, and the amount of rate cuts priced in by the end of the year has fallen to a two-month low of 33 basis points.

The S&P 500 and Nasdaq are on track for their fifth consecutive weekly decline - the longest losing streak since April to May last year - marking a significant underperformance versus the rest of the world and Asia in particular.

The MSCI Asia ex-Japan index hit a four-month high on Thursday. It, Chinese equities and Hong Kong tech stocks are all firmly in the green for the week - HK tech is up nearly 9% - so traders may think it prudent to square up a little ahead of the payrolls report.

Watch foreign exchange markets, too - the dollar is up 1.5% so far this week, on course for its best week since September. Of course, a higher dollar, rising U.S. Treasury yields and tighter U.S. financial conditions is never a good mix for emerging markets.

On the local data front, the main event is Taiwan inflation for December.

Three key developments that could provide more direction to markets on Friday:

- U.S. non-farm payrolls (December)

- Fed's Cook, Bostic, Barkin and George all speak

- Euro zone flash inflation (December)

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21-02-2024 11:58:33 (UTC+7)

EUR/USD

1.0814

+0.0011 (+0.10%)

Summary

↑ Buy

Moving Avg:

Buy (11)

Sell (1)

Indicators:

Buy (8)

Sell (0)

EUR/USD

1.0814

+0.0011 (+0.10%)

Summary

↑ Buy

Moving Avg:

Buy (11)

Sell (1)

Indicators:

Buy (8)

Sell (0)

GBP/USD

1.2632

+0.0014 (+0.11%)

Summary

↑ Buy

Moving Avg:

Buy (8)

Sell (4)

Indicators:

Buy (6)

Sell (1)

USD/JPY

150.00

+0.01 (+0.01%)

Summary

Buy

Moving Avg:

Buy (11)

Sell (1)

Indicators:

Buy (4)

Sell (4)

AUD/USD

0.6567

+0.0019 (+0.29%)

Summary

Neutral

Moving Avg:

Buy (6)

Sell (6)

Indicators:

Buy (4)

Sell (1)

USD/CAD

1.3511

-0.0009 (-0.07%)

Summary

↑ Sell

Moving Avg:

Buy (0)

Sell (12)

Indicators:

Buy (0)

Sell (10)

EUR/JPY

162.24

+0.11 (+0.07%)

Summary

Buy

Moving Avg:

Buy (7)

Sell (5)

Indicators:

Buy (5)

Sell (1)

EUR/CHF

0.9527

-0.0005 (-0.06%)

Summary

↑ Buy

Moving Avg:

Buy (10)

Sell (2)

Indicators:

Buy (4)

Sell (3)

Gold Futures

2,041.75

+1.95 (+0.10%)

Summary

↑ Buy

Moving Avg:

Buy (12)

Sell (0)

Indicators:

Buy (9)

Sell (0)

Silver Futures

23.198

+0.062 (+0.27%)

Summary

↑ Buy

Moving Avg:

Buy (9)

Sell (3)

Indicators:

Buy (7)

Sell (2)

Copper Futures

3.8682

+0.0104 (+0.27%)

Summary

Neutral

Moving Avg:

Buy (1)

Sell (11)

Indicators:

Buy (4)

Sell (3)

Crude Oil WTI Futures

77.31

+0.27 (+0.35%)

Summary

↑ Buy

Moving Avg:

Buy (12)

Sell (0)

Indicators:

Buy (9)

Sell (0)

Brent Oil Futures

82.66

+0.32 (+0.39%)

Summary

↑ Buy

Moving Avg:

Buy (12)

Sell (0)

Indicators:

Buy (10)

Sell (0)

Natural Gas Futures

1.707

-0.001 (-0.06%)

Summary

↑ Sell

Moving Avg:

Buy (3)

Sell (9)

Indicators:

Buy (0)

Sell (6)

US Coffee C Futures

188.03

+1.33 (+0.71%)

Summary

↑ Buy

Moving Avg:

Buy (12)

Sell (0)

Indicators:

Buy (9)

Sell (0)

Euro Stoxx 50

4,759.75

-3.32 (-0.07%)

Summary

↑ Sell

Moving Avg:

Buy (3)

Sell (9)

Indicators:

Buy (0)

Sell (8)

S&P 500

4,975.51

-30.06 (-0.60%)

Summary

↑ Buy

Moving Avg:

Buy (12)

Sell (0)

Indicators:

Buy (8)

Sell (1)

DAX

17,068.43

-23.83 (-0.14%)

Summary

Sell

Moving Avg:

Buy (4)

Sell (8)

Indicators:

Buy (1)

Sell (5)

FTSE 100

7,719.21

-9.29 (-0.12%)

Summary

↑ Buy

Moving Avg:

Buy (10)

Sell (2)

Indicators:

Buy (9)

Sell (0)

Hang Seng

16,745.00

+497.49 (+3.06%)

Summary

↑ Buy

Moving Avg:

Buy (12)

Sell (0)

Indicators:

Buy (6)

Sell (1)

US Small Cap 2000

2,003.65

-29.09 (-1.43%)

Summary

↑ Buy

Moving Avg:

Buy (12)

Sell (0)

Indicators:

Buy (8)

Sell (0)

IBEX 35

10,038.20

+93.40 (+0.94%)

Summary

Sell

Moving Avg:

Buy (5)

Sell (7)

Indicators:

Buy (0)

Sell (5)

BASF SE NA O.N.

46.045

+0.270 (+0.59%)

Summary

↑ Sell

Moving Avg:

Buy (2)

Sell (10)

Indicators:

Buy (0)

Sell (8)

Bayer AG NA

28.77

-0.14 (-0.47%)

Summary

Neutral

Moving Avg:

Buy (8)

Sell (4)

Indicators:

Buy (3)

Sell (3)

Allianz SE VNA O.N.

249.40

+0.75 (+0.30%)

Summary

Sell

Moving Avg:

Buy (6)

Sell (6)

Indicators:

Buy (1)

Sell (7)

Adidas AG

181.12

+1.40 (+0.78%)

Summary

↑ Buy

Moving Avg:

Buy (9)

Sell (3)

Indicators:

Buy (9)

Sell (1)

Deutsche Lufthansa AG

7.339

+0.002 (+0.03%)

Summary

↑ Buy

Moving Avg:

Buy (12)

Sell (0)

Indicators:

Buy (8)

Sell (0)

Siemens AG Class N

168.72

-0.86 (-0.51%)

Summary

Neutral

Moving Avg:

Buy (8)

Sell (4)

Indicators:

Buy (3)

Sell (5)

Deutsche Bank AG

11.954

-0.042 (-0.35%)

Summary

↑ Sell

Moving Avg:

Buy (3)

Sell (9)

Indicators:

Buy (0)

Sell (9)

    EUR/USD 1.0814 ↑ Buy  
    GBP/USD 1.2632 ↑ Buy  
    USD/JPY 150.00 Buy  
    AUD/USD 0.6567 Neutral  
    USD/CAD 1.3511 ↑ Sell  
    EUR/JPY 162.24 Buy  
    EUR/CHF 0.9527 ↑ Buy  
    Gold 2,041.75 ↑ Buy  
    Silver 23.198 ↑ Buy  
    Copper 3.8682 Neutral  
    Crude Oil WTI 77.31 ↑ Buy  
    Brent Oil 82.66 ↑ Buy  
    Natural Gas 1.707 ↑ Sell  
    US Coffee C 188.03 ↑ Buy  
    Euro Stoxx 50 4,759.75 ↑ Sell  
    S&P 500 4,975.51 ↑ Buy  
    DAX 17,068.43 Sell  
    FTSE 100 7,719.21 ↑ Buy  
    Hang Seng 16,745.00 ↑ Buy  
    Small Cap 2000 2,003.65 ↑ Buy  
    IBEX 35 10,038.20 Sell  
    BASF 46.045 ↑ Sell  
    Bayer 28.77 Neutral  
    Allianz 249.40 Sell  
    Adidas 181.12 ↑ Buy  
    Lufthansa 7.339 ↑ Buy  
    Siemens AG 168.72 Neutral  
    Deutsche Bank AG 11.954 ↑ Sell  
Mua/Bán 1 chỉ SJC
# So hôm qua # Chênh TG
SJC Eximbank7,630/ 7,800
(80/ 50) # 1,762
SJC HCM7,590/ 7,810
(0/ -10) # 1,772
SJC Hanoi7,590/ 7,812
(0/ -10) # 1,774
SJC Danang7,590/ 7,812
(0/ -10) # 1,774
SJC Nhatrang7,590/ 7,812
(0/ -10) # 1,774
SJC Cantho7,590/ 7,812
(0/ -10) # 1,774
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