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Marketmind: Fearless?

A look at the day ahead in U.S. and global markets from Mike Dolan. As bond markets furiously flag a looming recession, stock markets suddenly seem fearless. Wall St's so-called...
Marketmind: Fearless? © Reuters. Traders work on the floor of the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE) in New York City, U.S., November 22, 2022. REUTERS/Brendan McDermid
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A look at the day ahead in U.S. and global markets from Mike Dolan.

As bond markets furiously flag a looming recession, stock markets suddenly seem fearless.

Wall St's so-called 'fear index' of implied equity volatility fell on Tuesday to its lowest level since August. At just 21, the index is below the median of the past 12 months and is almost half the peaks hit earlier in the year.

Put against the deepening inversion of the U.S. 2-10 year Treasury yield curve to its most negative in 22 years, typically a harbinger of recession ahead, the apparent stock market calm is puzzling. And it's not just the United States, Germany's equivalent yield curve inversion hit its deepest since 2008.

Some analysts reckon stock market positioning is already so low and portfolios so underweight equity that demand for downside protection in the options market has waned too.

Others feel the oncoming recession will just ease energy and inflation pressures, hasten an end to central bank tightening and see a retreat in long-term borrrowing costs that have dogged stock markets all year.

A readout from the Federal Reserve's last policy meeting later on Wednesday will be watched for clues on that.

Flash readings of European business sentiment in November showed at least some of the gloom lifting, however, with activity shrinking less rapidly than forecast. Surveyed German firms indicated that the deep contraction there had eased as price pressures fell back.

U.S. business surveys are due later.

Oil prices inched higher as data showing a larger-than-expected U.S. crude drawdown last week outweighed concerns about lower fuel demand from China amid tightening COVID-19 curbs.

China stocks perked up after China's Bank of Communications agreed to provide a 100-billion-yuan credit line to developer Vanke - the latest sign of support for the embattled property sector.

But the COVID outbreak and its fallout only got worse.

Chinese authorities imposed more restrictions, adding to worries about the economy just amid fresh unrest at the world's largest iPhone factory. Hundreds of workers joined protests at Foxconn's flagship Apple (NASDAQ:AAPL) iPhone plant, with some smashing surveillance cameras and windows, footage uploaded on social media showed.

Any hoping for an end to the jump in interest rate rate rises around the world were also disappointed.

New Zealand's central bank hiked rates by a record 75 basis points and warned the economy might have to spend an entire year in recession to bring sky-high inflation under control.

Sterling was firmer as the top UK court ruled that Scotland's government cannot hold a second referendum on independence without approval from Britain's parliament, dealing a hammer blow to nationalists' hopes of a vote next year.

Banking stress returned to the headlines.

Credit Suisse fell 4% after the embattled Swiss bank said it expects to make a pre tax loss of up to 1.5 billion Swiss francs ($1.58 billion) during its fourth quarter as it prepares to ask shareholders to clear a $4 billion equity hike.

The world of sports finance was brighter. Manchester United shares jumped almost 15% on Tuesday after it said it was seeking new investment or a potential sale 17 years after the American Glazer family bought the English Premier League soccer club.

Key developments that may provide direction to U.S. markets later on Wednesday:

* Flash Nov business surveys in U.S. and around the world, weekly jobless claims, University of Michigan Nov consumer sentiment and inflation expectations, U.S. Oct new home sales and Oct durable goods orders

* Federal Open Market Committee issues minutes from its meeting of Nov 1-2

* UK finance minister Jeremy Hunt answers budget questions from House of Commons' Treasury Committee

* US corporate earnings: Deere (NYSE:DE)

(By Mike Dolan, editing by Alexandra Hudson (NYSE:HUD) mike.dolan@thomsonreuters.com. Twitter: @reutersMikeD)

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28-11-2022 13:01:56 (UTC+7)

EUR/USD

1.0351

-0.0044 (-0.42%)

Summary

↑ Sell

Moving Avg:

Buy (0)

Sell (12)

Indicators:

Buy (2)

Sell (6)

EUR/USD

1.0351

-0.0044 (-0.42%)

Summary

↑ Sell

Moving Avg:

Buy (0)

Sell (12)

Indicators:

Buy (2)

Sell (6)

GBP/USD

1.2052

-0.0041 (-0.34%)

Summary

↑ Sell

Moving Avg:

Buy (0)

Sell (12)

Indicators:

Buy (3)

Sell (5)

USD/JPY

138.28

-0.82 (-0.59%)

Summary

↑ Sell

Moving Avg:

Buy (0)

Sell (12)

Indicators:

Buy (0)

Sell (9)

AUD/USD

0.6676

-0.0073 (-1.09%)

Summary

↑ Sell

Moving Avg:

Buy (0)

Sell (12)

Indicators:

Buy (0)

Sell (8)

USD/CAD

1.3457

+0.0080 (+0.60%)

Summary

↑ Buy

Moving Avg:

Buy (12)

Sell (0)

Indicators:

Buy (7)

Sell (1)

EUR/JPY

143.13

-1.46 (-1.01%)

Summary

↑ Sell

Moving Avg:

Buy (0)

Sell (12)

Indicators:

Buy (0)

Sell (7)

EUR/CHF

0.9799

-0.0027 (-0.27%)

Summary

↑ Sell

Moving Avg:

Buy (0)

Sell (12)

Indicators:

Buy (0)

Sell (6)

Gold Futures

1,749.15

-4.85 (-0.28%)

Summary

Buy

Moving Avg:

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Sell (6)

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Sell (1)

Silver Futures

21.200

-0.230 (-1.07%)

Summary

Sell

Moving Avg:

Buy (4)

Sell (8)

Indicators:

Buy (2)

Sell (5)

Copper Futures

3.5520

-0.0785 (-2.16%)

Summary

Sell

Moving Avg:

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Sell (8)

Indicators:

Buy (1)

Sell (5)

Crude Oil WTI Futures

73.97

-2.31 (-3.03%)

Summary

Buy

Moving Avg:

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Indicators:

Buy (5)

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Brent Oil Futures

81.23

-2.48 (-2.96%)

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Moving Avg:

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Natural Gas Futures

7.122

-0.208 (-2.84%)

Summary

↑ Sell

Moving Avg:

Buy (0)

Sell (12)

Indicators:

Buy (0)

Sell (8)

US Coffee C Futures

164.40

+1.65 (+1.01%)

Summary

↑ Sell

Moving Avg:

Buy (2)

Sell (10)

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Buy (0)

Sell (9)

Euro Stoxx 50

3,962.41

+0.42 (+0.01%)

Summary

↑ Buy

Moving Avg:

Buy (12)

Sell (0)

Indicators:

Buy (8)

Sell (2)

S&P 500

4,026.12

-1.14 (-0.03%)

Summary

Neutral

Moving Avg:

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Indicators:

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Sell (2)

DAX

14,541.38

+1.82 (+0.01%)

Summary

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Moving Avg:

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Sell (1)

Indicators:

Buy (3)

Sell (2)

FTSE 100

7,486.67

+20.07 (+0.27%)

Summary

↑ Buy

Moving Avg:

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Sell (5)

Indicators:

Buy (6)

Sell (1)

Hang Seng

17,207.00

-366.58 (-2.09%)

Summary

↑ Buy

Moving Avg:

Buy (8)

Sell (4)

Indicators:

Buy (6)

Sell (1)

US Small Cap 2000

1,869.19

+6.37 (+0.34%)

Summary

↑ Buy

Moving Avg:

Buy (12)

Sell (0)

Indicators:

Buy (5)

Sell (2)

IBEX 35

8,416.60

+37.20 (+0.00%)

Summary

Sell

Moving Avg:

Buy (6)

Sell (6)

Indicators:

Buy (1)

Sell (6)

BASF SE NA O.N.

49.605

-0.280 (-0.56%)

Summary

Neutral

Moving Avg:

Buy (9)

Sell (3)

Indicators:

Buy (4)

Sell (4)

Bayer AG NA

55.45

-0.06 (-0.11%)

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Sell

Moving Avg:

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Sell (6)

Indicators:

Buy (0)

Sell (6)

Allianz SE VNA O.N.

205.35

+0.40 (+0.20%)

Summary

↑ Buy

Moving Avg:

Buy (10)

Sell (2)

Indicators:

Buy (8)

Sell (1)

Adidas AG

123.98

-2.68 (-2.12%)

Summary

Neutral

Moving Avg:

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Sell (6)

Indicators:

Buy (1)

Sell (5)

Deutsche Lufthansa AG

7.567

+0.036 (+0.48%)

Summary

↑ Sell

Moving Avg:

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Sell (8)

Indicators:

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Sell (9)

Siemens AG Class N

132.06

+1.10 (+0.84%)

Summary

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Sell (1)

Deutsche Bank AG

10.390

+0.020 (+0.19%)

Summary

↑ Buy

Moving Avg:

Buy (12)

Sell (0)

Indicators:

Buy (6)

Sell (0)

    EUR/USD 1.0351 ↑ Sell  
    GBP/USD 1.2052 ↑ Sell  
    USD/JPY 138.28 ↑ Sell  
    AUD/USD 0.6676 ↑ Sell  
    USD/CAD 1.3457 ↑ Buy  
    EUR/JPY 143.13 ↑ Sell  
    EUR/CHF 0.9799 ↑ Sell  
    Gold 1,749.15 Buy  
    Silver 21.200 Sell  
    Copper 3.5520 Sell  
    Crude Oil WTI 73.97 Buy  
    Brent Oil 81.23 ↑ Buy  
    Natural Gas 7.122 ↑ Sell  
    US Coffee C 164.40 ↑ Sell  
    Euro Stoxx 50 3,962.41 ↑ Buy  
    S&P 500 4,026.12 Neutral  
    DAX 14,541.38 ↑ Buy  
    FTSE 100 7,486.67 ↑ Buy  
    Hang Seng 17,207.00 ↑ Buy  
    Small Cap 2000 1,869.19 ↑ Buy  
    IBEX 35 8,416.60 Sell  
    BASF 49.605 Neutral  
    Bayer 55.45 Sell  
    Allianz 205.35 ↑ Buy  
    Adidas 123.98 Neutral  
    Lufthansa 7.567 ↑ Sell  
    Siemens AG 132.06 ↑ Buy  
    Deutsche Bank AG 10.390 ↑ Buy  
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RON 95-V24.91025.400
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KRW15,9719,46
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