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Housebuilders cut at RBC Capital on very challenging housing environment

By Sam Boughedda  RBC Capital cut homebuilder stocks Lennar Corp. (NYSE:LEN) to Underperform and KB Home (NYSE:KBH), Fortune Brands Innovations Inc. (NYSE:FBIN), Masonite...
Housebuilders cut at RBC Capital on very challenging housing environment © Reuters. Housebuilders cut at RBC Capital on very challenging housing environment
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By Sam Boughedda 

RBC Capital cut homebuilder stocks Lennar Corp. (NYSE:LEN) to Underperform and KB Home (NYSE:KBH), Fortune Brands Innovations Inc. (NYSE:FBIN), Masonite International (NYSE:DOOR), D.R. Horton (NYSE:DHI), and Dream Finders Homes Inc (NYSE:DFH) to Sector Perform in a note to clients on Friday.

RBC analysts cut Lennar's price target to $76 from $79, telling investors they "view LEN's recent guidance on closings and a 1Q gross margin bottom as overly optimistic against a market continuing to see acute demand pressures and increasingly aggressive peer responses on price reductions after LEN gained share as a 'first-mover.'"

"We expect LEN to either fall short on its orders/closings guides or on its view that 1Q's ~21% guide will mark the trough in gross margin, or both," they added.

On KB Home, the analysts maintained a $34 price target on the stock, telling investors that given their view of a challenging macro environment and KBH's recent results, they "believe that Street is underestimating the magnitude of margin pressure and earnings decline in '23 and believe that despite the significant discount to TBV, the stock remains fairly valued."

Fortune Brands Innovations' price target was raised to $63 from $61, with the analysts stating the firm sees FBIN as a "high-quality asset within building products."

However, they added the "stock is now trading at 17x our CY'23 EPS est. and 15x our new '24 est., translating to 12x/11x' 23E/' 24E EBITDA, which we see as more balanced in terms of risk/reward."

Masonite International Corporation's price target was cut to $89 from $91. The RBC analysts said they "see limited room for NT outperformance given our expectation for continued housing headwinds to hit volumes meaningfully in '23, with little rebound in ’24, and our below-consensus ests."

The D.R. Horton price target was raised to $76 from $68, with RBC expecting the company will "continue to aggressively adjust pricing/incentives to maintain volumes, resulting in less severe order declines than peers" but at more of an expense to margins than Street expectations."

The analysts maintained an $8 per share price target on Dream Finders Homes, Inc., stating that while "DFH's land light model should help to mitigate some risks," they expect a trade-off between growth and margin "as the company will likely either realize significant margin pressure or be forced to walk from substantial option deals which would limit its growth outlook and still weigh on TBV."

Overall, the analysts said the firm sees a very challenging fundamental housing environment persisting through 2023 before a modest rebound in 2024.

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21-02-2024 13:04:24 (UTC+7)

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    EUR/USD 1.0815 Sell  
    GBP/USD 1.2635 ↑ Buy  
    USD/JPY 149.98 Neutral  
    AUD/USD 0.6569 Neutral  
    USD/CAD 1.3508 Buy  
    EUR/JPY 162.22 ↑ Buy  
    EUR/CHF 0.9525 ↑ Sell  
    Gold 2,041.60 ↑ Sell  
    Silver 23.190 Sell  
    Copper 3.8715 ↑ Buy  
    Crude Oil WTI 77.25 ↑ Sell  
    Brent Oil 82.58 ↑ Sell  
    Natural Gas 1.690 ↑ Sell  
    US Coffee C 188.03 ↑ Buy  
    Euro Stoxx 50 4,759.75 ↑ Sell  
    S&P 500 4,975.51 ↑ Buy  
    DAX 17,068.43 Sell  
    FTSE 100 7,719.21 ↑ Buy  
    Hang Seng 16,646.00 Sell  
    Small Cap 2000 2,003.65 ↑ Buy  
    IBEX 35 10,038.20 Sell  
    BASF 46.045 ↑ Sell  
    Bayer 28.77 Neutral  
    Allianz 249.40 Sell  
    Adidas 181.12 ↑ Buy  
    Lufthansa 7.339 ↑ Buy  
    Siemens AG 168.72 Neutral  
    Deutsche Bank AG 11.954 ↑ Sell  
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