Etsy valuation at a discount to pre-pandemic levels despite being stronger - Needham & Company

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By Sam Boughedda 

Needham & Company upgraded shares of Etsy (NASDAQ:ETSY) to Buy from Hold, assigning the stock a $160 per share price target in a note to clients on Wednesday.

Needham analysts explained that the company exited the pandemic stronger, but its valuation is at a discount to pre-pandemic averages.

"ETSY has done a commendable job holding on to pandemic buyers in '22, when reopening headwinds were significant--since '19, repeat buyer penetration is up 800 bps, while habitual buyers increased by over 200% and reactivated buyers are up ~900k y/y YTD (and company now has better tools to reactivate ~100M buyers lapsed in the last 12-18 months)," argue the analysts. "While macro overhang remains, we think Etsy's secret sauce is diversification of categories and relative value prop--with ecomm penetration expected to bounce back in '23, we think ETSY should be gaining share again."

They added that, since 2020, Etsy's product development is up over 120% while sales are up 50%.

"Now that pandemic demand has been mostly lapped and sell side estimates are in a good place (we expect a conservative 1Q23 guide, albeit buy-side is already there, and compares ease significantly thereafter), positive earnings revisions and multiple expansion should drive share upside from here," the analysts concluded.

Etsy shares are up 1.9% at the time of writing.