Bumble shares offer an attractive risk-reward - KeyBanc

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By Sam Boughedda

Bumble Inc (NASDAQ:BMBL) was raised to Overweight with a price target of $27 per share at KeyBanc on Tuesday, with analysts stating the firm believes the shares offer an attractive risk-reward.

They told investors in a research note that KeyBanc's Key First Look (KFL) credit and debit card data suggest payer trends remained solid in December.

"The competitive environment appears stable, and economic pressures are easing," write the analysts. "As we outline in our Dec. 2022 Love Tracker (also published today), we have observed that Bumble continues to fare well in our Key First Look (KFL) credit card data and app downloads."

KeyBanc revealed a 12-point acceleration in indexed customer growth in December, which it said contributed to another month of 20%+ indexed spending growth.

"We interpret this to mean that: 1) competition has not meaningfully intensified; and 2) macro headwinds are moderating (ARPU improved m/m across dating apps in our data)," add the analysts.

"We had previously been below consensus due to our concerns on the macro environment. As we have seen dating data remain resilient, we now believe Bumble is positioned to benefit from: 1) Compliments optimizations - We see opportunities to grow the payer base and introduce regional pricing. We estimate à la carte revenue is 10-15% of revenue today. 2) International - We believe the Bumble app is ramping in international markets (e.g., Europe) while Badoo is poised for a recovery over the course of the year. 3) Moderating FX headwinds - Based on current exchange rates, we believe FX headwinds will begin moderating in 2Q."

Bumble shares jumped more than 6.5% Tuesday.