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Analysis-With banks' results on tap, options traders prepare for volatility

11 Tháng Giêng 2023
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By Saqib Iqbal Ahmed

NEW YORK (Reuters) - Options traders are bracing for volatility in U.S. bank shares days ahead of an earnings season many believe will bring lower profits and reflect worries over an expected recession.

Current market positioning signals a gloomy outlook: The one-month moving average of open puts on the Financial Select Sector SPDR Fund, the largest financials ETF with nearly $33 billions in assets, outnumbers call options, 1.8-to-1, the most defensive this measure has been since late October.

One standout trade on Monday saw a put buyer pay $1.5 million for 50,000 of February puts on XLF. The trade would be profitable if the ETF’s shares slipped below $33 by mid-February, a 6% decline from current levels.

"What you are seeing in markets is some concern whether or not the operating environment is going to be favorable for financials," said Scott Knapp, chief market strategist at CUNA Mutual Group. "It's a challenging environment where it is tough to earn a nickel ... markets are getting ahead by discounting some of that."

Bank of America (NYSE:BAC), JPMorgan Chase & Co. (NYSE:JPM), Wells Fargo (NYSE:WFC) and Citigroup Inc (NYSE:C) are set to report results Friday, with other lenders to follow next week.

Shares of banks have been pummeled alongside broader markets in the past year as the Federal Reserve raised rates at a rapid clip to fight the worst inflation in decades. The S&P 500 bank index fell 21.6% last year, compared to a compared to a 19.4% decline for the S&P 500 as a whole.

Banks shares have historically been volatile around earnings time and traders expect U.S. consumer price data on Thursday -- which has set off big market swings in recent months -- to add an extra dose of choppiness this time around.

Options on big bank stocks, on average, are pricing the largest post-earnings moves in the last two years, an analysis by Susquehanna International Group showed.

"The trading bias in the options heading into big bank earnings has been buying volatility and protecting positions," said Chris Murphy, co-head of derivatives strategy at Susquehanna International Group. "It's definitely more pronounced than it has been historically."

GRAPHIC: Braced for volatility (https://www.reuters.com/graphics/USA-STOCKS/akpeqaqekpr/chart.png)

Many believe rising prices and higher borrowing will take a toll on lenders' bottom lines by prompting consumers and businesses to curb their spending. Since banks serve as economic middlemen, their profits decline when activity slows.

Analysts expect S&P 500 financial sector earnings to have declined by 8.7% in the fourth quarter from a year ago, tied with the technology sector as the fourth-biggest projected drop among major sectors for the period, according to IBES data from Refinitiv.

Meanwhile, Goldman Sachs Group (NYSE:GS) will start cutting thousands of jobs across the firm from Wednesday, as it prepares for a tough economic environment, the latest among big banks, including Morgan Stanley (NYSE:MS) and Citigroup Inc, to cut their work force in recent months as a dealmaking boom on Wall Street fizzled out partly due to high interest rates.

Not everyone has a gloomy outlook for the sector. In a Monday research note, Bank of America said financials have better earnings stability than the S&P 500, cleaner balance sheets and less recession risk than "other more crowded and expensive cyclical sectors like Info Tech."

"U.S. financials may be a good spot to park assets in the near-term," wrote Savita Subramanian, equity & quant strategist for BofA Global Research.

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07-02-2023 07:52:40 (UTC+7)

EUR/USD

1.0734

+0.0004 (+0.04%)

Summary

↑ Buy

Moving Avg:

Buy (12)

Sell (0)

Indicators:

Buy (7)

Sell (0)

EUR/USD

1.0734

+0.0004 (+0.04%)

Summary

↑ Buy

Moving Avg:

Buy (12)

Sell (0)

Indicators:

Buy (7)

Sell (0)

GBP/USD

1.2034

+0.0018 (+0.15%)

Summary

↑ Buy

Moving Avg:

Buy (12)

Sell (0)

Indicators:

Buy (5)

Sell (1)

USD/JPY

132.42

-0.23 (-0.17%)

Summary

↑ Sell

Moving Avg:

Buy (2)

Sell (10)

Indicators:

Buy (3)

Sell (6)

AUD/USD

0.6892

+0.0011 (+0.16%)

Summary

Sell

Moving Avg:

Buy (4)

Sell (8)

Indicators:

Buy (1)

Sell (5)

USD/CAD

1.3434

-0.0011 (-0.09%)

Summary

Neutral

Moving Avg:

Buy (5)

Sell (7)

Indicators:

Buy (4)

Sell (4)

EUR/JPY

142.15

-0.18 (-0.13%)

Summary

Neutral

Moving Avg:

Buy (5)

Sell (7)

Indicators:

Buy (6)

Sell (1)

EUR/CHF

0.9953

-0.0007 (-0.07%)

Summary

Sell

Moving Avg:

Buy (0)

Sell (12)

Indicators:

Buy (2)

Sell (1)

Gold Futures

1,882.90

+3.40 (+0.18%)

Summary

Buy

Moving Avg:

Buy (8)

Sell (4)

Indicators:

Buy (4)

Sell (3)

Silver Futures

22.308

+0.071 (+0.32%)

Summary

Sell

Moving Avg:

Buy (6)

Sell (6)

Indicators:

Buy (1)

Sell (7)

Copper Futures

4.0410

+0.0040 (+0.10%)

Summary

↑ Sell

Moving Avg:

Buy (3)

Sell (9)

Indicators:

Buy (0)

Sell (8)

Crude Oil WTI Futures

74.43

+0.32 (+0.43%)

Summary

Neutral

Moving Avg:

Buy (8)

Sell (4)

Indicators:

Buy (3)

Sell (4)

Brent Oil Futures

81.40

+1.46 (+1.83%)

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↑ Buy

Moving Avg:

Buy (11)

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Indicators:

Buy (7)

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Natural Gas Futures

2.493

+0.036 (+1.47%)

Summary

↑ Sell

Moving Avg:

Buy (2)

Sell (10)

Indicators:

Buy (0)

Sell (8)

US Coffee C Futures

176.35

+3.55 (+2.05%)

Summary

Neutral

Moving Avg:

Buy (8)

Sell (4)

Indicators:

Buy (3)

Sell (3)

Euro Stoxx 50

4,205.45

-52.53 (-1.23%)

Summary

Neutral

Moving Avg:

Buy (8)

Sell (4)

Indicators:

Buy (3)

Sell (5)

S&P 500

4,111.08

-25.40 (-0.61%)

Summary

↑ Buy

Moving Avg:

Buy (11)

Sell (1)

Indicators:

Buy (8)

Sell (1)

DAX

15,345.91

-130.52 (-0.84%)

Summary

Neutral

Moving Avg:

Buy (6)

Sell (6)

Indicators:

Buy (1)

Sell (5)

FTSE 100

7,836.71

-65.09 (-0.82%)

Summary

Neutral

Moving Avg:

Buy (10)

Sell (2)

Indicators:

Buy (4)

Sell (4)

Hang Seng

21,222.16

-438.31 (-2.02%)

Summary

↑ Buy

Moving Avg:

Buy (12)

Sell (0)

Indicators:

Buy (6)

Sell (0)

US Small Cap 2000

1,954.80

-30.73 (-1.55%)

Summary

↑ Sell

Moving Avg:

Buy (1)

Sell (11)

Indicators:

Buy (2)

Sell (5)

IBEX 35

9,159.20

-66.40 (-0.72%)

Summary

↑ Sell

Moving Avg:

Buy (2)

Sell (10)

Indicators:

Buy (1)

Sell (6)

BASF SE NA O.N.

52.950

-1.090 (-2.02%)

Summary

↑ Sell

Moving Avg:

Buy (0)

Sell (12)

Indicators:

Buy (0)

Sell (9)

Bayer AG NA

58.19

+1.51 (+2.66%)

Summary

↑ Sell

Moving Avg:

Buy (0)

Sell (12)

Indicators:

Buy (0)

Sell (9)

Allianz SE VNA O.N.

219.30

-1.45 (-0.66%)

Summary

Neutral

Moving Avg:

Buy (6)

Sell (6)

Indicators:

Buy (3)

Sell (2)

Adidas AG

155.36

-5.70 (-3.54%)

Summary

↑ Sell

Moving Avg:

Buy (5)

Sell (7)

Indicators:

Buy (2)

Sell (7)

Deutsche Lufthansa AG

9.803

-0.099 (-1.00%)

Summary

↑ Buy

Moving Avg:

Buy (12)

Sell (0)

Indicators:

Buy (5)

Sell (2)

Siemens AG Class N

142.96

-2.06 (-1.42%)

Summary

Sell

Moving Avg:

Buy (6)

Sell (6)

Indicators:

Buy (3)

Sell (6)

Deutsche Bank AG

11.356

-0.174 (-1.51%)

Summary

↑ Buy

Moving Avg:

Buy (12)

Sell (0)

Indicators:

Buy (8)

Sell (0)

    EUR/USD 1.0734 ↑ Buy  
    GBP/USD 1.2034 ↑ Buy  
    USD/JPY 132.42 ↑ Sell  
    AUD/USD 0.6892 Sell  
    USD/CAD 1.3434 Neutral  
    EUR/JPY 142.15 Neutral  
    EUR/CHF 0.9953 Sell  
    Gold 1,882.90 Buy  
    Silver 22.308 Sell  
    Copper 4.0410 ↑ Sell  
    Crude Oil WTI 74.43 Neutral  
    Brent Oil 81.40 ↑ Buy  
    Natural Gas 2.493 ↑ Sell  
    US Coffee C 176.35 Neutral  
    Euro Stoxx 50 4,205.45 Neutral  
    S&P 500 4,111.08 ↑ Buy  
    DAX 15,345.91 Neutral  
    FTSE 100 7,836.71 Neutral  
    Hang Seng 21,222.16 ↑ Buy  
    Small Cap 2000 1,954.80 ↑ Sell  
    IBEX 35 9,159.20 ↑ Sell  
    BASF 52.950 ↑ Sell  
    Bayer 58.19 ↑ Sell  
    Allianz 219.30 Neutral  
    Adidas 155.36 ↑ Sell  
    Lufthansa 9.803 ↑ Buy  
    Siemens AG 142.96 Sell  
    Deutsche Bank AG 11.356 ↑ Buy  
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