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Yen tanks as FX market adjusts to central bank rate decisions

18 Tháng Sáu 2022

By John McCrank

NEW YORK (Reuters) - The Japanese yen tumbled against the dollar on Friday after the Bank of Japan bucked a wave of tightening and stuck with its ultra-accommodative stance, adding to soaring volatility in currency markets hit by a series of rate hikes this week.

Currency markets have been roiled by one of the biggest runs of monetary policy tightening in decades, including the Federal Reserve's mid-week three-quarters-of-a-percentage-point rate increase, its biggest since 1995, and the Swiss National Bank's surprise decision to hike rates by 50 basis points.

Japan's central bank swam against the current on Friday, keeping its policy settings unchanged and vowing to defend its bond yield cap of 0.25% with unlimited buying.

"Everybody expected the BOJ to do something. They didn't," said Boris Schlossberg, managing director of FX strategy at BK Asset Management.

The yen, which on Wednesday hit a 24-year low of 135.6 per dollar, plunged in reaction to the BOJ decision. The Japanese currency was last down 2.09% against the greenback at 134.885 yen, and was 1.62% lower versus the euro.

The 135 level has been a technical resistance point for the yen and breaking through it could force many shorts against the dollar-yen currency pair to have to cover their bets, potentially pushing the pair up to 137 or 140, said Schlossberg.

"If we start to really creep higher from this point, I think it will definitely force some of these early shorts out of the trade," he said.

Graphic: Yen near 24-year lows- https://fingfx.thomsonreuters.com/gfx/mkt/lbvgnxozapq/yen%2024%20year%20lows.JPG

The dollar rose from a one-week low against major peers, bouncing off a two-day slide after the Fed's mid-week rate increase of 75 basis points, a move that was anticipated by markets as the Fed attempts to tame stubbornly high inflation.

The dollar index, which measures the currency against a basket of six rivals, was up 0.732% at 104.64, putting it on track for a weekly rise of around 0.4% ahead of a long weekend in the United States.

"Today we're seeing a rebalancing of the market," said Simon Harvey, head of FX analysis at Monex Europe. "Markets are still adjusting to the central bank meetings from throughout the week."

The euro was last down 0.53% at $1.0496 versus the dollar.

The Swiss National Bank's surprise decision to raise rates by half a percentage point continued to reverberate through markets, with the franc touching 1.0098 against the euro, its strongest since April 13, as investors bet the SNB would not try to stop the strengthening currency as it has in the past.

Giving up earlier gains against the Swiss currency, the dollar lost 0.31% to 0.9696 francs, after tumbling the most in seven years versus the Swissy in the previous session.

"The surprise rate hike in Switzerland, as well as the European Central Bank's announcement that it is working on a tool to prevent the fragmentation of the European bond markets, will help to limit USD strength around current levels," strategists at UBS's Global Wealth Management’s Chief Investment Office said in a research note.

Sterling dropped 0.99% to $1.2229, giving back most of its gains from when the Bank of England decided to lift rates again, albeit by less than many in the market had expected, along with a hawkish signal about future policy action.

Currency markets are also having to contend with a massive drop in risk sentiment that has roiled equity markets.

The Australian dollar, which is very sensitive to the broad global investment mood, fell 1.53% to just under $0.6938 after stock markets in Asia tumbled, while Wall Street edged higher after a steep selloff on Thursday.

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30-06-2022 20:40:03 (UTC+7)

EUR/USD

1.0415

-0.0024 (-0.23%)

Summary

Neutral

Moving Avg:

Buy (8)

Sell (4)

Indicators:

Buy (3)

Sell (4)

EUR/USD

1.0415

-0.0024 (-0.23%)

Summary

Neutral

Moving Avg:

Buy (8)

Sell (4)

Indicators:

Buy (3)

Sell (4)

GBP/USD

1.2152

+0.0027 (+0.22%)

Summary

Neutral

Moving Avg:

Buy (8)

Sell (4)

Indicators:

Buy (1)

Sell (6)

USD/JPY

135.79

-0.79 (-0.57%)

Summary

↑ Sell

Moving Avg:

Buy (0)

Sell (12)

Indicators:

Buy (0)

Sell (9)

AUD/USD

0.6905

+0.0024 (+0.35%)

Summary

Sell

Moving Avg:

Buy (6)

Sell (6)

Indicators:

Buy (1)

Sell (7)

USD/CAD

1.2902

+0.0011 (+0.09%)

Summary

Neutral

Moving Avg:

Buy (3)

Sell (9)

Indicators:

Buy (4)

Sell (2)

EUR/JPY

141.43

-1.15 (-0.81%)

Summary

↑ Sell

Moving Avg:

Buy (0)

Sell (12)

Indicators:

Buy (0)

Sell (9)

EUR/CHF

0.9955

-0.0016 (-0.16%)

Summary

↑ Sell

Moving Avg:

Buy (4)

Sell (8)

Indicators:

Buy (0)

Sell (8)

Gold Futures

1,819.25

+1.75 (+0.10%)

Summary

Sell

Moving Avg:

Buy (6)

Sell (6)

Indicators:

Buy (1)

Sell (6)

Silver Futures

20.485

-0.253 (-1.22%)

Summary

↑ Sell

Moving Avg:

Buy (4)

Sell (8)

Indicators:

Buy (0)

Sell (9)

Copper Futures

3.7105

-0.0700 (-1.85%)

Summary

Sell

Moving Avg:

Buy (6)

Sell (6)

Indicators:

Buy (2)

Sell (7)

Crude Oil WTI Futures

108.02

-1.76 (-1.60%)

Summary

↑ Sell

Moving Avg:

Buy (4)

Sell (8)

Indicators:

Buy (1)

Sell (6)

Brent Oil Futures

110.91

-1.54 (-1.37%)

Summary

Sell

Moving Avg:

Buy (4)

Sell (8)

Indicators:

Buy (2)

Sell (5)

Natural Gas Futures

6.553

+0.055 (+0.85%)

Summary

↑ Buy

Moving Avg:

Buy (12)

Sell (0)

Indicators:

Buy (9)

Sell (0)

US Coffee C Futures

229.85

+1.60 (+0.70%)

Summary

Buy

Moving Avg:

Buy (8)

Sell (4)

Indicators:

Buy (5)

Sell (2)

Euro Stoxx 50

3,422.65

-91.67 (-2.61%)

Summary

↑ Sell

Moving Avg:

Buy (0)

Sell (12)

Indicators:

Buy (0)

Sell (7)

S&P 500

3,754.70

-64.13 (-1.68%)

Summary

↑ Sell

Moving Avg:

Buy (0)

Sell (12)

Indicators:

Buy (0)

Sell (7)

DAX

12,648.35

-355.00 (-2.73%)

Summary

↑ Sell

Moving Avg:

Buy (0)

Sell (12)

Indicators:

Buy (0)

Sell (7)

FTSE 100

7,121.90

-190.42 (-2.60%)

Summary

↑ Sell

Moving Avg:

Buy (0)

Sell (12)

Indicators:

Buy (0)

Sell (8)

Hang Seng

21,859.79

-137.10 (-0.62%)

Summary

Sell

Moving Avg:

Buy (1)

Sell (11)

Indicators:

Buy (3)

Sell (3)

US Small Cap 2000

1,685.60

-27.72 (-1.62%)

Summary

↑ Sell

Moving Avg:

Buy (0)

Sell (12)

Indicators:

Buy (0)

Sell (7)

IBEX 35

7,999.52

-188.48 (-2.30%)

Summary

↑ Sell

Moving Avg:

Buy (0)

Sell (12)

Indicators:

Buy (0)

Sell (8)

BASF SE NA O.N.

39.928

-1.652 (-3.97%)

Summary

↑ Buy

Moving Avg:

Buy (12)

Sell (0)

Indicators:

Buy (10)

Sell (0)

Bayer AG NA

56.34

-1.28 (-2.22%)

Summary

Buy

Moving Avg:

Buy (9)

Sell (3)

Indicators:

Buy (5)

Sell (1)

Allianz SE VNA O.N.

180.35

-3.37 (-1.83%)

Summary

↑ Buy

Moving Avg:

Buy (12)

Sell (0)

Indicators:

Buy (9)

Sell (0)

Adidas AG

167.02

-3.00 (-1.76%)

Summary

↑ Buy

Moving Avg:

Buy (12)

Sell (0)

Indicators:

Buy (8)

Sell (1)

Deutsche Lufthansa AG

5.314

-0.499 (-8.58%)

Summary

↑ Sell

Moving Avg:

Buy (0)

Sell (12)

Indicators:

Buy (1)

Sell (8)

Siemens AG Class N

96.83

-4.57 (-4.51%)

Summary

↑ Sell

Moving Avg:

Buy (0)

Sell (12)

Indicators:

Buy (0)

Sell (9)

Deutsche Bank AG

8.206

-0.365 (-4.26%)

Summary

Buy

Moving Avg:

Buy (9)

Sell (3)

Indicators:

Buy (5)

Sell (3)

 EUR/USD1.0415Neutral
 GBP/USD1.2152Neutral
 USD/JPY135.79↑ Sell
 AUD/USD0.6905Sell
 USD/CAD1.2902Neutral
 EUR/JPY141.43↑ Sell
 EUR/CHF0.9955↑ Sell
 Gold1,819.25Sell
 Silver20.485↑ Sell
 Copper3.7105Sell
 Crude Oil WTI108.02↑ Sell
 Brent Oil110.91Sell
 Natural Gas6.553↑ Buy
 US Coffee C229.85Buy
 Euro Stoxx 503,422.65↑ Sell
 S&P 5003,754.70↑ Sell
 DAX12,648.35↑ Sell
 FTSE 1007,121.90↑ Sell
 Hang Seng21,859.79Sell
 Small Cap 20001,685.60↑ Sell
 IBEX 357,999.52↑ Sell
 BASF39.928↑ Buy
 Bayer56.34Buy
 Allianz180.35↑ Buy
 Adidas167.02↑ Buy
 Lufthansa5.314↑ Sell
 Siemens AG96.83↑ Sell
 Deutsche Bank AG8.206Buy
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