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Yen scales seven-month high on BOJ policy shift hopes

03 Tháng Giêng 2023
Yen scales seven-month high on BOJ policy shift hopes © Reuters. FILE PHOTO: U.S. one hundred dollar notes are seen in this picture illustration taken in Seoul February 7, 2011. REUTERS/Lee Jae-Won
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By Ankur Banerjee

SINGAPORE (Reuters) - The yen spiked to a seven-month high against the U.S. dollar on Tuesday on rising expectations that the Bank of Japan might move away from its ultra-easy monetary policy.

Speculation that the BOJ was set to start shifting off its ultra-loose policy flared when the central bank widened the yield cap range on 10-year Japanese government bonds (JGBs) last month, and it was further fuelled by a Nikkei report on Saturday that the BOJ was considering raising its inflation forecasts in January to show price growth close to its 2% target in fiscal 2023 and 2024.

"The market obviously wants to believe that tinkering with the yield curve is not once and done," said Moh Siong Sim, currency strategist at Bank of Singapore, adding that the market was looking for further signals that there would be more tweaks to the yield curve control settings.

But Governor Haruhiko Kuroda has dismissed the chance of a near-term exit from ultra-loose monetary policy.

The yen strengthened 0.69% versus the greenback at 129.83 per dollar on Tuesday, having touched 129.51 earlier in the session - a level last seen in June.

The Asian currency lost 12% against the dollar in 2022, with the Japanese authorities stepping into the market in September to prop it up for the first time since 1998 and again in October, when it weakened to a 32-year low of 151.94 per dollar.

On Tuesday, the yen's gains were broad, with the euro slipping 0.57% to 138.52 yen and sterling 0.44% lower at 156.76 yen.

With Japanese markets closed, thin liquidity may have exacerbated the move, analysts said.

Investor attention this week is fixed on the minutes of the Fed's December policymaking meeting, which are due to be released on Wednesday, with traders looking for clues to what rate path is likely to be taken in 2023.

The U.S. central bank raised interest rates by 50 basis points last month after delivering four consecutive 75-basis point hikes in the year, but has said it may need to keep interest rates higher for longer to tame inflation.

Citi strategists said the minutes could reveal more divergence between doves and hawks regarding how high the terminal rate should go.

"We will also be looking for any guide on what could determine the size of the hike at the February meeting, but would not expect any concrete guidance," Citi said, adding they continue to expect a 50 basis points hike in February.

The dollar index, which measures the greenback against six major currencies, has made a subdued start to 2023 and was last down 0.029% at 103.610. The dollar index rose 8% last year in its biggest annual jump since 2015 on the back of the Fed raising interest rates to tackle inflation.

The dollar is likely to consolidate as "market activity gradually picks up this week," said Christopher Wong, currency strategist at OCBC Bank in Singapore.

U.S. payrolls data, due to be released on Friday, is expected to show that the labour market remains tight.

ING economists said in a note that the Fed had talked up the importance of the payrolls data for the inflation outlook, but they noted that wage growth had not caused the inflation and it would not be the reason that it ultimately falls.

Meanwhile, China's factory activity shrank for the third straight month in December and at the sharpest pace in nearly three years as COVID-19 infections swept through production lines after Beijing's abrupt reversal of anti-virus measures.

The Australian dollar fell 0.06% versus the greenback at $0.680, while the kiwi rose 0.19% at $0.633.

The euro was mostly flat, while sterling was last trading at $1.2067, up 0.18% on the day.

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03-02-2023 14:00:46 (UTC+7)

EUR/USD

1.0895

-0.0015 (-0.14%)

Summary

Neutral

Moving Avg:

Buy (12)

Sell (0)

Indicators:

Buy (4)

Sell (5)

EUR/USD

1.0895

-0.0015 (-0.14%)

Summary

Neutral

Moving Avg:

Buy (12)

Sell (0)

Indicators:

Buy (4)

Sell (5)

GBP/USD

1.2217

-0.0006 (-0.05%)

Summary

↑ Buy

Moving Avg:

Buy (12)

Sell (0)

Indicators:

Buy (7)

Sell (1)

USD/JPY

128.54

-0.10 (-0.08%)

Summary

↑ Sell

Moving Avg:

Buy (0)

Sell (12)

Indicators:

Buy (0)

Sell (8)

AUD/USD

0.7068

-0.0008 (-0.11%)

Summary

Neutral

Moving Avg:

Buy (12)

Sell (0)

Indicators:

Buy (1)

Sell (6)

USD/CAD

1.3331

+0.0016 (+0.12%)

Summary

↑ Sell

Moving Avg:

Buy (0)

Sell (12)

Indicators:

Buy (0)

Sell (4)

EUR/JPY

140.05

-0.31 (-0.22%)

Summary

Sell

Moving Avg:

Buy (4)

Sell (8)

Indicators:

Buy (0)

Sell (5)

EUR/CHF

0.9960

0.0000 (0.00%)

Summary

Neutral

Moving Avg:

Buy (12)

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Indicators:

Buy (2)

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Gold Futures

1,930.10

-0.70 (-0.04%)

Summary

↑ Buy

Moving Avg:

Buy (12)

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Indicators:

Buy (4)

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Silver Futures

23.573

-0.042 (-0.18%)

Summary

↑ Buy

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Buy (12)

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Buy (8)

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Copper Futures

4.1242

+0.0377 (+0.92%)

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↑ Buy

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Crude Oil WTI Futures

75.73

-0.15 (-0.20%)

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Sell

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Brent Oil Futures

82.09

-0.08 (-0.10%)

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Neutral

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Natural Gas Futures

2.421

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↑ Sell

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Sell (12)

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Buy (1)

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US Coffee C Futures

178.38

+2.48 (+1.41%)

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↑ Buy

Moving Avg:

Buy (12)

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Indicators:

Buy (8)

Sell (1)

Euro Stoxx 50

4,241.12

+69.68 (+1.67%)

Summary

Neutral

Moving Avg:

Buy (6)

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Indicators:

Buy (3)

Sell (3)

S&P 500

4,179.76

+60.55 (+1.47%)

Summary

↑ Buy

Moving Avg:

Buy (12)

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Indicators:

Buy (9)

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DAX

15,509.19

+328.45 (+2.16%)

Summary

Buy

Moving Avg:

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Buy (3)

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FTSE 100

7,820.16

+59.05 (+0.76%)

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↑ Buy

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Buy (8)

Sell (2)

Hang Seng

21,685.00

-273.36 (-1.24%)

Summary

↑ Buy

Moving Avg:

Buy (12)

Sell (0)

Indicators:

Buy (7)

Sell (0)

US Small Cap 2000

2,001.22

+40.41 (+2.06%)

Summary

↑ Buy

Moving Avg:

Buy (10)

Sell (2)

Indicators:

Buy (11)

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IBEX 35

9,229.70

+131.60 (+1.45%)

Summary

↑ Sell

Moving Avg:

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Sell (11)

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Buy (2)

Sell (8)

BASF SE NA O.N.

53.840

+1.100 (+2.09%)

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Moving Avg:

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Buy (10)

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56.80

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221.70

+0.70 (+0.32%)

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↑ Buy

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Adidas AG

157.92

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↑ Buy

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Sell (1)

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Buy (8)

Sell (1)

Deutsche Lufthansa AG

9.893

+0.214 (+2.21%)

Summary

↑ Sell

Moving Avg:

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Sell (10)

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Buy (2)

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Siemens AG Class N

143.72

+0.72 (+0.50%)

Summary

↑ Buy

Moving Avg:

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Deutsche Bank AG

11.456

-0.794 (-6.48%)

Summary

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Moving Avg:

Buy (6)

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Buy (5)

Sell (3)

    EUR/USD 1.0895 Neutral  
    GBP/USD 1.2217 ↑ Buy  
    USD/JPY 128.54 ↑ Sell  
    AUD/USD 0.7068 Neutral  
    USD/CAD 1.3331 ↑ Sell  
    EUR/JPY 140.05 Sell  
    EUR/CHF 0.9960 Neutral  
    Gold 1,930.10 ↑ Buy  
    Silver 23.573 ↑ Buy  
    Copper 4.1242 ↑ Buy  
    Crude Oil WTI 75.73 Sell  
    Brent Oil 82.09 Neutral  
    Natural Gas 2.421 ↑ Sell  
    US Coffee C 178.38 ↑ Buy  
    Euro Stoxx 50 4,241.12 Neutral  
    S&P 500 4,179.76 ↑ Buy  
    DAX 15,509.19 Buy  
    FTSE 100 7,820.16 ↑ Buy  
    Hang Seng 21,685.00 ↑ Buy  
    Small Cap 2000 2,001.22 ↑ Buy  
    IBEX 35 9,229.70 ↑ Sell  
    BASF 53.840 ↑ Buy  
    Bayer 56.80 ↑ Buy  
    Allianz 221.70 ↑ Buy  
    Adidas 157.92 ↑ Buy  
    Lufthansa 9.893 ↑ Sell  
    Siemens AG 143.72 ↑ Buy  
    Deutsche Bank AG 11.456 Neutral  
Mua/Bán 1 chỉ SJC
# So hôm qua # Chênh TG
SJC Eximbank6,670/ 6,730
(-40/ -40) # 1,280
SJC HCM6,680/ 6,760
(-20/ -20) # 1,309
SJC Hanoi6,680/ 6,762
(-20/ -20) # 1,311
SJC Danang6,680/ 6,762
(-20/ -20) # 1,311
SJC Nhatrang6,680/ 6,762
(-20/ -20) # 1,311
SJC Cantho6,680/ 6,762
(-20/ -20) # 1,311
Cập nhật 03-02-2023 14:00:49
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ↀ Giá vàng thế giới
$1,915.55 +0.44 0.02%
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ʘ Giá bán lẻ xăng dầu
Sản phẩm Vùng 1 Vùng 2
RON 95-V24.00024.480
RON 95-III23.14023.600
E5 RON 92-II22.32022.760
DO 0.05S22.52022.970
DO 0,001S-V24.28024.760
Dầu hỏa 2-K22.57023.020
ↂ Giá dầu thô thế giới
WTI $76.01 +0.18 0.23%
Brent $82.10 +0.1 0.12%
$ Tỷ giá Vietcombank
Ngoại tệMua vàoBán ra
USD23.250,0023.620,00
EUR24.892,6426.286,54
GBP27.897,1229.086,72
JPY177,36187,76
KRW16,5420,16
Cập nhật lúc 13:58:06 03/02/2023
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