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Why the U.S. stock market is tumbling in 2022

By Lewis Krauskopf NEW YORK (Reuters) - The U.S. stock market is off to brutal start in 2022. The S&P 500, which is widely considered to be the main benchmark for U.S. stock...

By Lewis Krauskopf

NEW YORK (Reuters) - The U.S. stock market is off to brutal start in 2022.

The S&P 500, which is widely considered to be the main benchmark for U.S. stock market performance, declined 13.3% through April, the steepest four-month drop to start any year since 1939. The index continues to fall in May and was down 16% year-to-date as of Tuesday's close, approaching the 20% threshold that some investors consider confirmation of a bear market.

For the Nasdaq Composite, which is heavier on technology shares, the decline has been more severe, falling some 25% so far this year.

WHAT IS WEIGHING ON STOCKS THIS YEAR?

The S&P 500 started the year having more than doubled from the lows it hit in March 2020, an upswing that went into reverse almost immediately as the calendar flipped to 2022.

The main factor cited by investors and analysts for the market's weakness is the policy change at the Federal Reserve. As the pandemic took hold, the U.S. central bank put in place emergency policies to stabilize the economy that investors say also emboldened buying of stocks and other riskier assets. But the Fed early in 2022 signaled it was pivoting to tighter monetary policy in order to tamp down surging inflation, a significant change to the investing environment.

WHY HAS THE FED PIVOT HURT STOCKS?

The Fed in March raised interest rates for the first time since 2018, boosting by 25 basis points. Earlier this month, the central bank raised rates by another 50 basis points - the biggest move in 22 years - and Fed Chair Jerome Powell signaled similar increases could follow as it also starts unwinding assets accumulated during its fight against the pandemic's effects.

The decisions have weighed on stocks in several ways. While equities have risen during many of the Fed's past rate-raising cycles, some investors worry that surging inflation and sky-high commodity prices could force the central bank to tighten more aggressively, potentially hurting growth and pushing the economy into a recession.

At the same time, expectations of tighter Fed policy have pushed up previously dormant bond yields. The yield on the 10-year U.S. Treasury note has already roughly doubled this year to 3%, its first time above that level since late 2018, when the Fed was reaching the end of its last tightening cycle.

With yields rising, bonds are a more competitive investment to stocks, with the 10-year Treasury yield about twice the level of the dividend yield for the S&P 500.

Higher bond yields in particular dull the allure of technology and other high-growth sectors, which are valued for their potential cash flows and lose appeal when bond yields rise. Investors say that impact has been reflected in the outsized declines notched by some post-pandemic growth bets, with the Russell 1000 growth index down 24% this year.

WHAT ELSE COULD BE CONTRIBUTING TO STOCK WEAKNESS?

Beyond the Fed's change, Russia's war in Ukraine has fueled further economic uncertainty. For example, the turmoil has caused a supply shock that has helped drive up oil and other commodity prices, while also triggering particular concerns about Europe's economy.

Other factors that have caused stock volatility recently include concerns over China's economy. Lockdowns in the country to control COVID-19 have weighed on production activity there.

WHAT SIGNS ARE INVESTORS LOOKING FOR TO HALT DECLINES?

Investors would like to see indications that U.S. inflation is peaking so the Fed can step back from potentially more aggressive actions. Wednesday's consumer price index release for April is the next key report to watch.

Some investors are looking at technical indicators, such as whether the S&P 500 can hold key levels, such as 4,000, as well as particularly heavy days of downside volume to "wash out" the sellers, or the CBOE volatility index hitting certain heights.

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28-05-2022 00:53:08 (UTC+7)

EUR/USD

1.0719

-0.0005 (-0.05%)

Summary

Neutral

Moving Avg:

Buy (8)

Sell (4)

Indicators:

Buy (3)

Sell (3)

EUR/USD

1.0719

-0.0005 (-0.05%)

Summary

Neutral

Moving Avg:

Buy (8)

Sell (4)

Indicators:

Buy (3)

Sell (3)

GBP/USD

1.2609

+0.0015 (+0.12%)

Summary

Neutral

Moving Avg:

Buy (10)

Sell (2)

Indicators:

Buy (2)

Sell (3)

USD/JPY

127.10

-0.04 (-0.04%)

Summary

↑ Sell

Moving Avg:

Buy (3)

Sell (9)

Indicators:

Buy (1)

Sell (7)

AUD/USD

0.7146

+0.0047 (+0.67%)

Summary

Neutral

Moving Avg:

Buy (7)

Sell (5)

Indicators:

Buy (1)

Sell (5)

USD/CAD

1.2745

-0.0027 (-0.21%)

Summary

Neutral

Moving Avg:

Buy (8)

Sell (4)

Indicators:

Buy (2)

Sell (3)

EUR/JPY

136.23

-0.11 (-0.08%)

Summary

Neutral

Moving Avg:

Buy (12)

Sell (0)

Indicators:

Buy (1)

Sell (6)

EUR/CHF

1.0272

-0.0016 (-0.16%)

Summary

↑ Buy

Moving Avg:

Buy (12)

Sell (0)

Indicators:

Buy (5)

Sell (2)

Gold Futures

1,850.88

+3.28 (+0.18%)

Summary

Buy

Moving Avg:

Buy (6)

Sell (6)

Indicators:

Buy (7)

Sell (1)

Silver Futures

22.075

+0.110 (+0.50%)

Summary

↑ Buy

Moving Avg:

Buy (10)

Sell (2)

Indicators:

Buy (8)

Sell (0)

Copper Futures

4.3125

+0.0535 (+1.26%)

Summary

↑ Buy

Moving Avg:

Buy (12)

Sell (0)

Indicators:

Buy (6)

Sell (0)

Crude Oil WTI Futures

114.62

+0.53 (+0.46%)

Summary

↑ Buy

Moving Avg:

Buy (7)

Sell (5)

Indicators:

Buy (6)

Sell (1)

Brent Oil Futures

115.06

+0.89 (+0.78%)

Summary

Buy

Moving Avg:

Buy (6)

Sell (6)

Indicators:

Buy (6)

Sell (0)

Natural Gas Futures

8.594

-0.301 (-3.38%)

Summary

↑ Sell

Moving Avg:

Buy (0)

Sell (12)

Indicators:

Buy (0)

Sell (9)

US Coffee C Futures

228.65

+2.05 (+0.90%)

Summary

↑ Sell

Moving Avg:

Buy (2)

Sell (10)

Indicators:

Buy (0)

Sell (8)

Euro Stoxx 50

3,808.86

+68.55 (+1.83%)

Summary

↑ Buy

Moving Avg:

Buy (9)

Sell (3)

Indicators:

Buy (9)

Sell (0)

S&P 500

4,126.46

+68.62 (+1.69%)

Summary

Sell

Moving Avg:

Buy (4)

Sell (8)

Indicators:

Buy (2)

Sell (5)

DAX

14,462.19

+230.90 (+1.62%)

Summary

↑ Buy

Moving Avg:

Buy (10)

Sell (2)

Indicators:

Buy (7)

Sell (0)

FTSE 100

7,585.46

+20.54 (+0.27%)

Summary

Sell

Moving Avg:

Buy (1)

Sell (11)

Indicators:

Buy (4)

Sell (4)

Hang Seng

20,697.36

+581.16 (+2.89%)

Summary

↑ Buy

Moving Avg:

Buy (12)

Sell (0)

Indicators:

Buy (9)

Sell (0)

US Small Cap 2000

1,878.10

+35.25 (+1.91%)

Summary

↑ Buy

Moving Avg:

Buy (12)

Sell (0)

Indicators:

Buy (7)

Sell (1)

IBEX 35

8,933.60

+44.80 (+0.50%)

Summary

↑ Buy

Moving Avg:

Buy (12)

Sell (0)

Indicators:

Buy (9)

Sell (0)

BASF SE NA O.N.

51.110

+0.320 (+0.63%)

Summary

Neutral

Moving Avg:

Buy (7)

Sell (5)

Indicators:

Buy (1)

Sell (7)

Bayer AG NA

66.58

+0.68 (+1.03%)

Summary

↑ Buy

Moving Avg:

Buy (12)

Sell (0)

Indicators:

Buy (7)

Sell (0)

Allianz SE VNA O.N.

200.20

+1.40 (+0.70%)

Summary

↑ Buy

Moving Avg:

Buy (12)

Sell (0)

Indicators:

Buy (8)

Sell (0)

Adidas AG

179.96

+3.20 (+1.81%)

Summary

↑ Buy

Moving Avg:

Buy (11)

Sell (1)

Indicators:

Buy (7)

Sell (1)

Deutsche Lufthansa AG

6.881

+0.031 (+0.45%)

Summary

↑ Buy

Moving Avg:

Buy (11)

Sell (1)

Indicators:

Buy (7)

Sell (2)

Siemens AG Class N

121.86

+3.34 (+2.82%)

Summary

Buy

Moving Avg:

Buy (8)

Sell (4)

Indicators:

Buy (5)

Sell (1)

Deutsche Bank AG

10.392

-0.022 (-0.21%)

Summary

↑ Sell

Moving Avg:

Buy (3)

Sell (9)

Indicators:

Buy (1)

Sell (6)

 EUR/USD1.0719Neutral
 GBP/USD1.2609Neutral
 USD/JPY127.10↑ Sell
 AUD/USD0.7146Neutral
 USD/CAD1.2745Neutral
 EUR/JPY136.23Neutral
 EUR/CHF1.0272↑ Buy
 Gold1,850.88Buy
 Silver22.075↑ Buy
 Copper4.3125↑ Buy
 Crude Oil WTI114.62↑ Buy
 Brent Oil115.06Buy
 Natural Gas8.594↑ Sell
 US Coffee C228.65↑ Sell
 Euro Stoxx 503,808.86↑ Buy
 S&P 5004,126.46Sell
 DAX14,462.19↑ Buy
 FTSE 1007,585.46Sell
 Hang Seng20,697.36↑ Buy
 Small Cap 20001,878.10↑ Buy
 IBEX 358,933.60↑ Buy
 BASF51.110Neutral
 Bayer66.58↑ Buy
 Allianz200.20↑ Buy
 Adidas179.96↑ Buy
 Lufthansa6.881↑ Buy
 Siemens AG121.86Buy
 Deutsche Bank AG10.392↑ Sell
Mua/Bán 1 chỉ SJC
# So hôm qua # Chênh TG
SJC Eximbank6,830/ 6,940
(0/ 0) # 1,716
SJC HCM6,855/ 6,955
(0/ 0) # 1,731
SJC Hanoi6,855/ 6,957
(0/ 0) # 1,733
SJC Danang6,855/ 6,957
(0/ 0) # 1,733
SJC Nhatrang6,855/ 6,957
(0/ 0) # 1,733
SJC Cantho6,855/ 6,957
(0/ 0) # 1,733
Cập nhật 28-05-2022 00:53:10
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Ngoại tệMua vàoBán ra
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EUR24.263,1125.622,23
GBP28.523,9629.740,84
JPY177,60188,03
KRW15,9119,38
Cập nhật lúc 18:54:46 27/05/2022
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