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Weekly Comic: Winter has come - can spring be far behind?

13 Tháng Giêng 2023
Weekly Comic:  Winter has come - can spring be far behind? © Investing.com
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By Geoffrey Smith

Investing.com -- One of the constants of financial markets is that multilateral development banks are among the slowest institutions to update their economic forecasts: by the time the bureaucrats at Washington’s Bretton Woods sisters have crafted their research in a way that satisfies the honor of all the various stakeholders, markets have long moved on.

So much so, in fact, that some are inclined to use them as contrarian indicators of where markets are heading next. The number-crunchers in Wall Street and London, incentivized not only to be right but to be right first, are already looking at the next big trend.

The Paris-based OECD and the International Monetary Fund both warned of the risk of a global recession at the end of last year, and the World Bank’s latest issue of its Global Economic Prospects is just as gloomy, saying that global growth will slow to 1.7% this year. Only in two of the last 30 years – in 2009 and 2020 – has it been slower. Last year's monetary policy tightening means this year's credit crunch, especially for developing countries: the World Bank estimates that 1 in 5 is now effectively shut out of global debt markets, up from 1 in 15 before the pandemic.

But global markets are behaving as if all that is old hat. The release on Thursday of figures showing that the U.S. inflation rate fell for a sixth straight month has emboldened hopes that not only will the Federal Reserve stop raising interest rates soon, it may even cut them before the end of the year as fears about the economy replace fears about inflation.

In China, meanwhile, the upcoming Lunar New Year holiday will see animal spirits unleashed on a massive scale, as 20% of the world’s population takes advantage of the freedom to travel on its biggest holiday for the first time in three years. The surge of outbound tourism is likely to provide real support to currencies in southeast Asia and further afield: Thailand’s baht has already risen 5% this year in anticipation.

Oil import quotas issued to the country’s refiners for 2023 are reported by Reuters to be up by some 20% or more from a year ago – news of which pushed crude prices up by nearly $5 a barrel over the last week despite signs of an alarming slowdown in demand in the U.S.

China’s abandonment of its Covid-Zero policy – which is admittedly likely to be stiffly tested by a wave of infections after the Lunar New Year - has changed calculations across the commodity markets. Iron ore is up 50% from its December lows, while copper – habitually the best proxy for global growth - is up 11% on the week, Aluminum is at a 7-month high and wheat, and Soybeans are both up by between 5% and 10% from their recent lows.

In the U.S., the December CPI and Labor Market Report have bolstered fading hopes that the Fed may yet achieve a soft landing for the U.S. economy. Comments from central bank officials suggesting that rates need to rise to 5% or more and then stay there are increasingly being interpreted as merely efforts to stop the market getting ahead of itself by pricing in rate cuts too early.

The European Central Bank, like the Fed, refuses to countenance any let up in the fight against inflation until it can properly declare victory. However, its task is being made easier every day by the energy markets, where the massive spike that threatened to ruin most of European industry last year in response to Russia’s invasion of Ukraine are now unwinding. Benchmark Dutch Gas Futures fell to their lowest since the invasion earlier this week, and even if they are still three time the prices that prevailed before the war started, they spent much of last summer at 10 times prewar levels. The improvement is not to be sniffed at.

But at least two big tests lie ahead: first markets will need to be convinced that the rise in commodity prices – especially oil – doesn’t start a new wave of inflation itself, which could force markets to take hawkish Fed talk more seriously.

Second, COVID could yet make a comeback in China if new variants thrive in a country of rebounding mobility and semi-effective vaccines, sending its consumer sector back into a funk and causing widespread and extended problems in the manufacturing and logistics sectors.

It’s unlikely to be all plain sailing from here, but as long as the development banks are still gloomy, the downside in 2023 should be limited.

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05-06-2023 06:22:11 (UTC+7)

EUR/USD

1.0700

-0.0010 (-0.09%)

Summary

↑ Sell

Moving Avg:

Buy (4)

Sell (8)

Indicators:

Buy (2)

Sell (8)

EUR/USD

1.0700

-0.0010 (-0.09%)

Summary

↑ Sell

Moving Avg:

Buy (4)

Sell (8)

Indicators:

Buy (2)

Sell (8)

GBP/USD

1.2434

-0.0024 (-0.19%)

Summary

Sell

Moving Avg:

Buy (4)

Sell (8)

Indicators:

Buy (2)

Sell (5)

USD/JPY

140.18

+0.18 (+0.13%)

Summary

↑ Buy

Moving Avg:

Buy (11)

Sell (1)

Indicators:

Buy (8)

Sell (1)

AUD/USD

0.6602

-0.0016 (-0.24%)

Summary

Neutral

Moving Avg:

Buy (3)

Sell (9)

Indicators:

Buy (3)

Sell (1)

USD/CAD

1.3426

+0.0002 (+0.01%)

Summary

↑ Buy

Moving Avg:

Buy (12)

Sell (0)

Indicators:

Buy (6)

Sell (1)

EUR/JPY

149.99

+0.06 (+0.04%)

Summary

↑ Buy

Moving Avg:

Buy (12)

Sell (0)

Indicators:

Buy (9)

Sell (0)

EUR/CHF

0.9732

0.0000 (0.00%)

Summary

↑ Buy

Moving Avg:

Buy (11)

Sell (1)

Indicators:

Buy (7)

Sell (0)

Gold Futures

1,964.95

-4.65 (-0.24%)

Summary

↑ Sell

Moving Avg:

Buy (1)

Sell (11)

Indicators:

Buy (0)

Sell (11)

Silver Futures

23.668

-0.079 (-0.33%)

Summary

↑ Sell

Moving Avg:

Buy (0)

Sell (12)

Indicators:

Buy (2)

Sell (9)

Copper Futures

3.7115

-0.0195 (-0.52%)

Summary

↑ Sell

Moving Avg:

Buy (2)

Sell (10)

Indicators:

Buy (0)

Sell (9)

Crude Oil WTI Futures

73.44

+1.70 (+2.37%)

Summary

Neutral

Moving Avg:

Buy (4)

Sell (8)

Indicators:

Buy (5)

Sell (5)

Brent Oil Futures

77.87

+1.74 (+2.29%)

Summary

↑ Buy

Moving Avg:

Buy (7)

Sell (5)

Indicators:

Buy (7)

Sell (1)

Natural Gas Futures

2.211

+0.034 (+1.56%)

Summary

Buy

Moving Avg:

Buy (10)

Sell (2)

Indicators:

Buy (5)

Sell (1)

US Coffee C Futures

180.60

-2.45 (-1.34%)

Summary

↑ Sell

Moving Avg:

Buy (4)

Sell (8)

Indicators:

Buy (1)

Sell (9)

Euro Stoxx 50

4,323.52

+65.91 (+1.55%)

Summary

↑ Buy

Moving Avg:

Buy (12)

Sell (0)

Indicators:

Buy (9)

Sell (0)

S&P 500

4,282.37

+61.35 (+1.45%)

Summary

↑ Sell

Moving Avg:

Buy (1)

Sell (11)

Indicators:

Buy (0)

Sell (9)

DAX

16,051.23

+197.57 (+1.25%)

Summary

↑ Sell

Moving Avg:

Buy (4)

Sell (8)

Indicators:

Buy (1)

Sell (6)

FTSE 100

7,607.28

+117.01 (+1.56%)

Summary

Sell

Moving Avg:

Buy (6)

Sell (6)

Indicators:

Buy (1)

Sell (8)

Hang Seng

18,949.94

+733.03 (+4.02%)

Summary

↑ Buy

Moving Avg:

Buy (9)

Sell (3)

Indicators:

Buy (6)

Sell (1)

US Small Cap 2000

1,830.91

+62.97 (+3.56%)

Summary

↑ Buy

Moving Avg:

Buy (12)

Sell (0)

Indicators:

Buy (8)

Sell (0)

IBEX 35

9,317.30

+149.80 (+1.63%)

Summary

Buy

Moving Avg:

Buy (8)

Sell (4)

Indicators:

Buy (4)

Sell (1)

BASF SE NA O.N.

46.790

+1.940 (+4.33%)

Summary

↑ Sell

Moving Avg:

Buy (4)

Sell (8)

Indicators:

Buy (0)

Sell (7)

Bayer AG NA

52.61

+0.71 (+1.37%)

Summary

↑ Buy

Moving Avg:

Buy (12)

Sell (0)

Indicators:

Buy (8)

Sell (1)

Allianz SE VNA O.N.

210.15

+5.95 (+2.91%)

Summary

Sell

Moving Avg:

Buy (6)

Sell (6)

Indicators:

Buy (0)

Sell (8)

Adidas AG

159.52

+8.78 (+5.82%)

Summary

Buy

Moving Avg:

Buy (7)

Sell (5)

Indicators:

Buy (4)

Sell (2)

Deutsche Lufthansa AG

9.303

+0.146 (+1.59%)

Summary

Buy

Moving Avg:

Buy (12)

Sell (0)

Indicators:

Buy (3)

Sell (3)

Siemens AG Class N

159.28

+2.60 (+1.66%)

Summary

↑ Buy

Moving Avg:

Buy (12)

Sell (0)

Indicators:

Buy (6)

Sell (0)

Deutsche Bank AG

9.862

+0.284 (+2.97%)

Summary

Sell

Moving Avg:

Buy (6)

Sell (6)

Indicators:

Buy (0)

Sell (9)

    EUR/USD 1.0700 ↑ Sell  
    GBP/USD 1.2434 Sell  
    USD/JPY 140.18 ↑ Buy  
    AUD/USD 0.6602 Neutral  
    USD/CAD 1.3426 ↑ Buy  
    EUR/JPY 149.99 ↑ Buy  
    EUR/CHF 0.9732 ↑ Buy  
    Gold 1,964.95 ↑ Sell  
    Silver 23.668 ↑ Sell  
    Copper 3.7115 ↑ Sell  
    Crude Oil WTI 73.44 Neutral  
    Brent Oil 77.87 ↑ Buy  
    Natural Gas 2.211 Buy  
    US Coffee C 180.60 ↑ Sell  
    Euro Stoxx 50 4,323.52 ↑ Buy  
    S&P 500 4,282.37 ↑ Sell  
    DAX 16,051.23 ↑ Sell  
    FTSE 100 7,607.28 Sell  
    Hang Seng 18,949.94 ↑ Buy  
    Small Cap 2000 1,830.91 ↑ Buy  
    IBEX 35 9,317.30 Buy  
    BASF 46.790 ↑ Sell  
    Bayer 52.61 ↑ Buy  
    Allianz 210.15 Sell  
    Adidas 159.52 Buy  
    Lufthansa 9.303 Buy  
    Siemens AG 159.28 ↑ Buy  
    Deutsche Bank AG 9.862 Sell  
Mua/Bán 1 chỉ SJC
# So hôm qua # Chênh TG
SJC Eximbank6,650/ 6,690
(6,650/ 6,690) # 1,061
SJC HCM6,635/ 6,705
(0/ 0) # 1,076
SJC Hanoi6,635/ 6,707
(0/ 0) # 1,078
SJC Danang6,635/ 6,707
(0/ 0) # 1,078
SJC Nhatrang6,635/ 6,707
(0/ 0) # 1,078
SJC Cantho6,635/ 6,707
(0/ 0) # 1,078
Cập nhật 05-06-2023 06:22:14
Xem lịch sử giá vàng SJC: nhấn đây!
ↀ Giá vàng thế giới
$1,949.42 +1.18 0.06%
Live 24 hour Gold Chart
ʘ Giá bán lẻ xăng dầu
Sản phẩm Vùng 1 Vùng 2
RON 95-V22.79023.240
RON 95-III22.01022.450
E5 RON 92-II20.87021.280
DO 0.05S17.94018.290
DO 0,001S-V18.80019.170
Dầu hỏa 2-K17.77018.120
ↂ Giá dầu thô thế giới
WTI $73.55 -6.98 -0.09%
Brent $77.88 -6.76 -0.08%
$ Tỷ giá Vietcombank
Ngoại tệMua vàoBán ra
USD23.280,0023.650,00
EUR24.613,3825.991,59
GBP28.653,4729.875,26
JPY164,43174,07
KRW15,4818,86
Cập nhật lúc 06:17:01 05/06/2023
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