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Weekly Comic: The Herculean Tax of Slaying Carbon Emissions

Thứ Tư, 21 tháng 7, 2021
Weekly Comic: The Herculean Tax of Slaying Carbon Emissions © Investing.com

By Geoffrey Smith

Investing.com -- The carbon dioxide trade is going global.

The European Union and China both took big steps last week toward imposing heavier costs on greenhouse gas emissions, the single biggest driver of man-made climate change.

Right on cue, the initiatives came in the same week that devastating high-energy floods hit both Europe and China, reminders of the destruction that the new measures aim to avert.

In the long term, analysts say, the measures may yet deliver what they promise, creating a better set of incentives for energy production and consumption (and broadening a tradable asset class that has delivered handsome returns in the last couple of years).

But in the near term, their impact is likely to be minimal, weakened - if the past is any guide – by lobbying and the subsequent dilution of such regulations. Those hoping to make a quick buck on carbon permit futures will need an exhaustive knowledge of the small print of local regulation as it evolves.

The EU’s ‘Fit for 55’ emissions reduction strategy published last week, is much more wider-reaching, but it is China’s that is more important, given the country's status as the world's largest current polluter.

“Without sufficient reduction by China, the goal of 1.5 degrees is essentially impossible,” U.S. envoy John Kerry said in a speech on Tuesday, referring to the Paris Climate Accord’s key aim of limiting average temperature growth worldwide.

Despite promising to reduce its emissions from 2030 onward and be carbon neutral by 2060, China is still building coal-fired power stations - a living, belching embodiment of the ‘carbon leakage’ phenomenon, by which polluting industrial activity simply moves to countries with laxer regulation.

So it’s good to see the Chinese trading scheme starting with the power sector – over 2,000 power companies that account for some 14% of energy-related emissions worldwide. However, the prices paid for emissions credits on Friday’s debut day in Shanghai – less than $8 a ton – are nowhere near the $50 level that the International Monetary Fund says would be compatible with Paris.

The truth is that the only long-term useful scheme is one that hurts, and President Xi Jinping’s record in this context is not encouraging: repeatedly, he has watered down or retreated from ambitious structural reforms once their short-term economic cost has become evident. Key polluters such as the petrochemicals industry have three years to lobby the government before they pay a penny for their emissions, and there is no direct reference in the ETS plans to an actual reduction in emissions over time. The risk of backsliding is all too clear.

However, in this case, China may have no alternative. The EU’s plan for a Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism will make it easier to punish producers who pay a lower price for their emissions. U.S. Senate Democrats – on the lookout for ways to dress up Donald Trump’s import tariffs in greener clothes – are now also reportedly working on a similar mechanism. There is no future for much Chinese industry without access to both those markets, so some kind of demonstrable progress will have to be made.

There are obvious risks of the EU and U.S. schemes being used for protectionist purposes, but the World Trade Organization’s rules can at least mitigate them, by making sure that the West doesn’t cut more slack to other polluters who they see as less of a geopolitical threat, such as India or Brazil.

In the end, though, policing climate change policies internationally may be less of a challenge than securing acceptance for them domestically.

The EU’s ETS, argue Claus Vistesen and Melanie Debono of Pantheon Macroeconomics, amounts to “a large, and sustained, tax increase on energy consumption over the next 20-to-30 years,” which is likely to be fall more on the poor than on the wealthy, in the absence of other measures. The argument would hold just as true for analogous U.S. or Chinese measures.

In France, Emmanuel Macron’s eco-taxes created the ‘yellow vest’ movement. In the U.S., the energy transition lends itself only too easily to manipulation by extremists of both left and right, as the winter storms in Texas showed.  The politics of energy taxation in China will hardly play out any more amicably, for all the Communist Party’s efforts to keep a lid on protest.

Indeed, the difficulties of implementing such policies could make you think that the only thing capable of keeping all three committed to their Paris obligations will be ever more frequent and ever more extreme weather events.

On that score, at least, there seems little risk of disappointment.

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01-05-2024 10:45:17 (UTC+7)

EUR/USD

1.0658

-0.0008 (-0.07%)

Summary

↑ Sell

Moving Avg:

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Indicators:

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EUR/USD

1.0658

-0.0008 (-0.07%)

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↑ Sell

Moving Avg:

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Indicators:

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GBP/USD

1.2475

-0.0015 (-0.12%)

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Moving Avg:

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USD/JPY

157.91

+0.12 (+0.07%)

Summary

↑ Buy

Moving Avg:

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Indicators:

Buy (9)

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AUD/USD

0.6469

-0.0003 (-0.05%)

Summary

Neutral

Moving Avg:

Buy (10)

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Indicators:

Buy (2)

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USD/CAD

1.3780

+0.0003 (+0.03%)

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Moving Avg:

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EUR/JPY

168.32

+0.10 (+0.06%)

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↑ Buy

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EUR/CHF

0.9808

+0.0001 (+0.01%)

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Gold Futures

2,295.80

-7.10 (-0.31%)

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Silver Futures

26.677

+0.023 (+0.09%)

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Copper Futures

4.5305

-0.0105 (-0.23%)

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Crude Oil WTI Futures

81.14

-0.79 (-0.96%)

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Brent Oil Futures

85.62

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Natural Gas Futures

1.946

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US Coffee C Futures

213.73

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Euro Stoxx 50

4,920.55

-60.54 (-1.22%)

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S&P 500

5,035.69

-80.48 (-1.57%)

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DAX

17,921.95

-196.37 (-1.08%)

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FTSE 100

8,144.13

-2.90 (-0.04%)

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Sell

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Hang Seng

17,763.03

+16.12 (+0.09%)

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↑ Sell

Moving Avg:

Buy (0)

Sell (12)

Indicators:

Buy (1)

Sell (6)

US Small Cap 2000

1,973.05

-42.98 (-2.13%)

Summary

↑ Sell

Moving Avg:

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Sell (12)

Indicators:

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Sell (7)

IBEX 35

10,854.40

-246.40 (-2.22%)

Summary

Neutral

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Buy (6)

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Buy (3)

Sell (3)

BASF SE NA O.N.

49.155

+0.100 (+0.20%)

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↑ Sell

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Bayer AG NA

27.35

-0.24 (-0.87%)

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Allianz SE VNA O.N.

266.60

+0.30 (+0.11%)

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↑ Sell

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Adidas AG

226.40

-5.90 (-2.54%)

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Deutsche Lufthansa AG

6.714

-0.028 (-0.42%)

Summary

Neutral

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Buy (9)

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Siemens AG Class N

175.90

-1.74 (-0.98%)

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Deutsche Bank AG

15.010

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Buy (6)

Sell (2)

 EUR/USD1.0658↑ Sell
 GBP/USD1.2475↑ Sell
 USD/JPY157.91↑ Buy
 AUD/USD0.6469Neutral
 USD/CAD1.3780↑ Buy
 EUR/JPY168.32↑ Buy
 EUR/CHF0.9808Neutral
 Gold2,295.80↑ Sell
 Silver26.677↑ Sell
 Copper4.5305↑ Buy
 Crude Oil WTI81.14↑ Sell
 Brent Oil85.62↑ Sell
 Natural Gas1.946↑ Sell
 US Coffee C213.73↑ Sell
 Euro Stoxx 504,920.55↑ Sell
 S&P 5005,035.69↑ Sell
 DAX17,921.95↑ Sell
 FTSE 1008,144.13Sell
 Hang Seng17,763.03↑ Sell
 Small Cap 20001,973.05↑ Sell
 IBEX 3510,854.40Neutral
 BASF49.155↑ Sell
 Bayer27.35↑ Sell
 Allianz266.60↑ Sell
 Adidas226.40↑ Sell
 Lufthansa6.714Neutral
 Siemens AG175.90↑ Sell
 Deutsche Bank AG15.010Neutral
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# So hôm qua # Chênh TG
SJC Eximbank8,300/ 8,500
(8,300/ 8,500) # 1,298
SJC 1L, 10L, 1KG8,300/ 8,520
(0/ 0) # 1,510
SJC 1c, 2c, 5c7,380/ 7,550
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SJC 0,5c7,380/ 7,560
(0/ 0) # 550
SJC 99,99%7,370/ 7,470
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SJC 99%7,196/ 7,396
(0/ 0) # 386
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ↀ Giá vàng thế giới
$2,285.72-47.5-2.04%
ʘ Giá bán lẻ xăng dầu
Sản phẩmVùng 1Vùng 2
RON 95-V25.44025.940
RON 95-III24.91025.400
E5 RON 92-II23.91024.380
DO 0.05S20.71021.120
DO 0,001S-V21.32021.740
Dầu hỏa 2-K20.68021.090
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WTI$80.83+3.390.04%
Brent$85.50+3.860.05%
$ Tỷ giá Vietcombank
Ngoại tệMua vàoBán ra
USD25.088,0025.458,00
EUR26.475,3627.949,19
GBP30.873,5232.211,36
JPY156,74166,02
KRW15,9219,31
Cập nhật lúc 10:45:15 01/05/2024
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