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U.S. may skirt recession in 2023, Europe not so lucky-Morgan Stanley

14 Tháng Mười Một 2022
U.S. may skirt recession in 2023, Europe not so lucky-Morgan Stanley © Reuters. FILE PHOTO: Offices are seen at dusk as St. Paul's cathedral and construction cranes are seen on the skyline in the City of London, Britain November 2, 2015. REUTERS/Toby Melville
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By Kevin Buckland

TOKYO (Reuters) - Britain and the euro zone economies are likely to tip into recession next year, Morgan Stanley (NYSE:MS) said, but the United States might make a narrow escape thanks to a resilient job market.

At the same time, China's expected reopening after almost three years of COVID-19 curbs is set to lead a recovery in its own economy and other emerging Asian markets, the investment bank's analysts said in a series of reports published on Sunday.

"Risks are to the downside," the reports said, projecting the global economy to grow by 2.2% next year, lower than the International Monetary Fund's latest 2.7% growth estimate.

Next year, Morgan Stanley predicts a sharp split between developed economies "in or near recession" while emerging economies "recover modestly" but said an overall global pickup would likely remain elusive. China's economy was predicted to grow 5% in 2023, outpacing the average 3.7% growth expected for emerging markets, while the average growth in the Group of 10 developed countries was forecast at just 0.3%.

Central banks across the globe have raised interest rates this year to curb raging inflation, and in the United States, Morgan Stanley predicted the Federal Reserve to keep rates high in 2023 as inflation remains strong after peaking in the fourth quarter of this year.

"The U.S. economy just skirts recession in 2023, but the landing doesn't feel so soft as job growth slows meaningfully and the unemployment rate continues to rise," the report said, predicting a 0.5% expansion next year.

"The cumulative effect of tight policy in 2023 spills over into 2024, resulting in two very weak years," the report added.

Globally too, the peak in inflation should come in the current quarter, the analysts said, "with disinflation driving the narrative next year". * U.S. core inflation to fall to 2.9% at end-2023, headlineinflation to 1.9% * Asia growth to dip to 3.4% in 1H23 before recovering to4.6% in 2H23, fuelled by domestic demand * Cross-asset returns – especially in fixed income – willlook much better in 2023 than in 2022, driven by cheaperstarting valuations * High-grade fixed income to outperform global equities * EM and Japan stocks to outperform, with U.S. shareslagging

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08-12-2022 17:06:54 (UTC+7)

EUR/USD

1.0497

-0.0008 (-0.08%)

Summary

↑ Sell

Moving Avg:

Buy (1)

Sell (11)

Indicators:

Buy (1)

Sell (6)

EUR/USD

1.0497

-0.0008 (-0.08%)

Summary

↑ Sell

Moving Avg:

Buy (1)

Sell (11)

Indicators:

Buy (1)

Sell (6)

GBP/USD

1.2170

-0.0029 (-0.24%)

Summary

↑ Sell

Moving Avg:

Buy (0)

Sell (12)

Indicators:

Buy (0)

Sell (5)

USD/JPY

136.90

+0.31 (+0.22%)

Summary

↑ Sell

Moving Avg:

Buy (3)

Sell (9)

Indicators:

Buy (0)

Sell (9)

AUD/USD

0.6720

-0.0001 (-0.01%)

Summary

↑ Buy

Moving Avg:

Buy (11)

Sell (1)

Indicators:

Buy (8)

Sell (0)

USD/CAD

1.3668

+0.0016 (+0.12%)

Summary

↑ Sell

Moving Avg:

Buy (0)

Sell (12)

Indicators:

Buy (0)

Sell (7)

EUR/JPY

143.67

+0.17 (+0.12%)

Summary

↑ Sell

Moving Avg:

Buy (0)

Sell (12)

Indicators:

Buy (0)

Sell (9)

EUR/CHF

0.9889

+0.0008 (+0.08%)

Summary

↑ Sell

Moving Avg:

Buy (0)

Sell (12)

Indicators:

Buy (0)

Sell (7)

Gold Futures

1,794.70

-3.30 (-0.18%)

Summary

↑ Sell

Moving Avg:

Buy (0)

Sell (12)

Indicators:

Buy (2)

Sell (6)

Silver Futures

22.892

-0.030 (-0.13%)

Summary

Neutral

Moving Avg:

Buy (6)

Sell (6)

Indicators:

Buy (4)

Sell (3)

Copper Futures

3.8673

+0.0068 (+0.18%)

Summary

↑ Buy

Moving Avg:

Buy (11)

Sell (1)

Indicators:

Buy (8)

Sell (0)

Crude Oil WTI Futures

72.86

+0.85 (+1.18%)

Summary

↑ Buy

Moving Avg:

Buy (12)

Sell (0)

Indicators:

Buy (8)

Sell (0)

Brent Oil Futures

77.86

+0.69 (+0.89%)

Summary

↑ Buy

Moving Avg:

Buy (12)

Sell (0)

Indicators:

Buy (7)

Sell (1)

Natural Gas Futures

5.782

+0.059 (+1.03%)

Summary

Neutral

Moving Avg:

Buy (6)

Sell (6)

Indicators:

Buy (5)

Sell (0)

US Coffee C Futures

161.35

+1.35 (+0.84%)

Summary

↑ Buy

Moving Avg:

Buy (12)

Sell (0)

Indicators:

Buy (7)

Sell (0)

Euro Stoxx 50

3,925.35

+4.45 (+0.11%)

Summary

↑ Buy

Moving Avg:

Buy (9)

Sell (3)

Indicators:

Buy (7)

Sell (1)

S&P 500

3,933.92

-7.34 (-0.19%)

Summary

↑ Buy

Moving Avg:

Buy (9)

Sell (3)

Indicators:

Buy (9)

Sell (1)

DAX

14,262.55

+1.36 (+0.01%)

Summary

↑ Buy

Moving Avg:

Buy (8)

Sell (4)

Indicators:

Buy (7)

Sell (0)

FTSE 100

7,490.60

+1.41 (+0.02%)

Summary

↑ Buy

Moving Avg:

Buy (10)

Sell (2)

Indicators:

Buy (6)

Sell (1)

Hang Seng

19,450.23

+635.41 (+3.38%)

Summary

Neutral

Moving Avg:

Buy (9)

Sell (3)

Indicators:

Buy (1)

Sell (5)

US Small Cap 2000

1,806.90

-5.67 (-0.31%)

Summary

↑ Buy

Moving Avg:

Buy (12)

Sell (0)

Indicators:

Buy (5)

Sell (1)

IBEX 35

8,266.85

-23.65 (-0.29%)

Summary

Buy

Moving Avg:

Buy (6)

Sell (6)

Indicators:

Buy (7)

Sell (1)

BASF SE NA O.N.

47.255

-0.170 (-0.36%)

Summary

Sell

Moving Avg:

Buy (5)

Sell (7)

Indicators:

Buy (0)

Sell (5)

Bayer AG NA

52.58

-0.22 (-0.42%)

Summary

↑ Sell

Moving Avg:

Buy (0)

Sell (12)

Indicators:

Buy (0)

Sell (10)

Allianz SE VNA O.N.

204.38

+0.73 (+0.36%)

Summary

Neutral

Moving Avg:

Buy (3)

Sell (9)

Indicators:

Buy (7)

Sell (1)

Adidas AG

116.07

-1.49 (-1.27%)

Summary

Neutral

Moving Avg:

Buy (6)

Sell (6)

Indicators:

Buy (3)

Sell (5)

Deutsche Lufthansa AG

7.688

+0.049 (+0.64%)

Summary

↑ Sell

Moving Avg:

Buy (0)

Sell (12)

Indicators:

Buy (0)

Sell (10)

Siemens AG Class N

133.05

+0.15 (+0.11%)

Summary

Neutral

Moving Avg:

Buy (7)

Sell (5)

Indicators:

Buy (4)

Sell (4)

Deutsche Bank AG

9.98

+0.014 (+0.14%)

Summary

↑ Sell

Moving Avg:

Buy (1)

Sell (11)

Indicators:

Buy (0)

Sell (8)

    EUR/USD 1.0497 ↑ Sell  
    GBP/USD 1.2170 ↑ Sell  
    USD/JPY 136.90 ↑ Sell  
    AUD/USD 0.6720 ↑ Buy  
    USD/CAD 1.3668 ↑ Sell  
    EUR/JPY 143.67 ↑ Sell  
    EUR/CHF 0.9889 ↑ Sell  
    Gold 1,794.70 ↑ Sell  
    Silver 22.892 Neutral  
    Copper 3.8673 ↑ Buy  
    Crude Oil WTI 72.86 ↑ Buy  
    Brent Oil 77.86 ↑ Buy  
    Natural Gas 5.782 Neutral  
    US Coffee C 161.35 ↑ Buy  
    Euro Stoxx 50 3,925.35 ↑ Buy  
    S&P 500 3,933.92 ↑ Buy  
    DAX 14,262.55 ↑ Buy  
    FTSE 100 7,490.60 ↑ Buy  
    Hang Seng 19,450.23 Neutral  
    Small Cap 2000 1,806.90 ↑ Buy  
    IBEX 35 8,266.85 Buy  
    BASF 47.255 Sell  
    Bayer 52.58 ↑ Sell  
    Allianz 204.38 Neutral  
    Adidas 116.07 Neutral  
    Lufthansa 7.688 ↑ Sell  
    Siemens AG 133.05 Neutral  
    Deutsche Bank AG 9.98 ↑ Sell  
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# So hôm qua # Chênh TG
SJC Eximbank6,650/ 6,720
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