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U.S. economy has 40% chance of being in recession next year -BofA

Thứ Bảy, 18 tháng 6, 2022
U.S. economy has 40% chance of being in recession next year -BofA © Reuters. FILE PHOTO: Flags fly outside 85 Broad St., the Goldman Sachs headquarters in New York's financial district, January 20, 2010. REUTERS/Brendan McDermid

By Caroline Valetkevitch

NEW YORK (Reuters) - BofA Securities economists see roughly a 40% chance of a U.S. recession next year, with inflation remaining persistently high.

They expect U.S. Gross Domestic Product growth to slow to almost zero by the second half of next year "as the lagged impact of tighter financial conditions cools the economy," while they see just a "modest" rebound in growth in 2024, according to a research report Friday.

"Our worst fears around the Fed have been confirmed: they fell way behind the curve and are now playing a dangerous game of catch up," Ethan Harris, global economist at BofAS wrote, adding that the firm expects the Fed to hike interest rates to "above 4%."

They see the risk of a recession for this year as low.

The Fed on Wednesday approved its largest interest rate increase in more than a quarter of a century to stem a surge in inflation. The move raised the target federal funds rate by three-quarters of a percentage point to a range of between 1.5% and 1.75%.

Also, BofA Global economists lowered their global growth projections, citing inflation, the war in Ukraine and COVID-related lockdowns in China.

They now expect global economic growth of 3.2%. They said they had forecast 4.3% global growth going into 2022.

They see further risks to 2022 growth if strict lockdowns continue in China, and to 2023 growth if the U.S. economy slips into recession.

The spike in energy prices amid the Russia-Ukraine war "has already sent inflation soaring across the world, which in turn has forced central banks into a more hawkish stance," the economists wrote.

On Monday, Bank of America Corp (NYSE:BAC)'s Chief Financial Officer Alastair Borthwick said that there is no sign of recession in the bank's loan portfolio, which remains on a healthy trajectory.

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01-05-2024 10:45:17 (UTC+7)

EUR/USD

1.0658

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EUR/USD

1.0658

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GBP/USD

1.2475

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157.91

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0.6469

-0.0003 (-0.05%)

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1.3780

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168.32

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 EUR/USD1.0658↑ Sell
 GBP/USD1.2475↑ Sell
 USD/JPY157.91↑ Buy
 AUD/USD0.6469Neutral
 USD/CAD1.3780↑ Buy
 EUR/JPY168.32↑ Buy
 EUR/CHF0.9808Neutral
 Gold2,295.80↑ Sell
 Silver26.677↑ Sell
 Copper4.5305↑ Buy
 Crude Oil WTI81.14↑ Sell
 Brent Oil85.62↑ Sell
 Natural Gas1.946↑ Sell
 US Coffee C213.73↑ Sell
 Euro Stoxx 504,920.55↑ Sell
 S&P 5005,035.69↑ Sell
 DAX17,921.95↑ Sell
 FTSE 1008,144.13Sell
 Hang Seng17,763.03↑ Sell
 Small Cap 20001,973.05↑ Sell
 IBEX 3510,854.40Neutral
 BASF49.155↑ Sell
 Bayer27.35↑ Sell
 Allianz266.60↑ Sell
 Adidas226.40↑ Sell
 Lufthansa6.714Neutral
 Siemens AG175.90↑ Sell
 Deutsche Bank AG15.010Neutral
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