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U.S. economy has 40% chance of being in recession next year -BofA

Saturday, June 18, 2022
U.S. economy has 40% chance of being in recession next year -BofA © Reuters. FILE PHOTO: Flags fly outside 85 Broad St., the Goldman Sachs headquarters in New York's financial district, January 20, 2010. REUTERS/Brendan McDermid

By Caroline Valetkevitch

NEW YORK (Reuters) - BofA Securities economists see roughly a 40% chance of a U.S. recession next year, with inflation remaining persistently high.

They expect U.S. Gross Domestic Product growth to slow to almost zero by the second half of next year "as the lagged impact of tighter financial conditions cools the economy," while they see just a "modest" rebound in growth in 2024, according to a research report Friday.

"Our worst fears around the Fed have been confirmed: they fell way behind the curve and are now playing a dangerous game of catch up," Ethan Harris, global economist at BofAS wrote, adding that the firm expects the Fed to hike interest rates to "above 4%."

They see the risk of a recession for this year as low.

The Fed on Wednesday approved its largest interest rate increase in more than a quarter of a century to stem a surge in inflation. The move raised the target federal funds rate by three-quarters of a percentage point to a range of between 1.5% and 1.75%.

Also, BofA Global economists lowered their global growth projections, citing inflation, the war in Ukraine and COVID-related lockdowns in China.

They now expect global economic growth of 3.2%. They said they had forecast 4.3% global growth going into 2022.

They see further risks to 2022 growth if strict lockdowns continue in China, and to 2023 growth if the U.S. economy slips into recession.

The spike in energy prices amid the Russia-Ukraine war "has already sent inflation soaring across the world, which in turn has forced central banks into a more hawkish stance," the economists wrote.

On Monday, Bank of America Corp (NYSE:BAC)'s Chief Financial Officer Alastair Borthwick said that there is no sign of recession in the bank's loan portfolio, which remains on a healthy trajectory.

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26-06-2022 18:22:17 (UTC+7)

EUR/USD

1.0554

+0.0031 (+0.29%)

Summary

Buy

Moving Avg:

Buy (11)

Sell (1)

Indicators:

Buy (5)

Sell (4)

EUR/USD

1.0554

+0.0031 (+0.29%)

Summary

Buy

Moving Avg:

Buy (11)

Sell (1)

Indicators:

Buy (5)

Sell (4)

GBP/USD

1.2272

+0.0012 (+0.10%)

Summary

↑ Sell

Moving Avg:

Buy (1)

Sell (11)

Indicators:

Buy (1)

Sell (6)

USD/JPY

135.23

+0.29 (+0.22%)

Summary

↑ Buy

Moving Avg:

Buy (11)

Sell (1)

Indicators:

Buy (7)

Sell (1)

AUD/USD

0.6944

+0.0055 (+0.80%)

Summary

↑ Sell

Moving Avg:

Buy (0)

Sell (12)

Indicators:

Buy (2)

Sell (6)

USD/CAD

1.2891

-0.0103 (-0.79%)

Summary

↑ Sell

Moving Avg:

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EUR/JPY

142.71

+0.71 (+0.50%)

Summary

↑ Buy

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EUR/CHF

1.0114

-0.0001 (-0.01%)

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Gold Futures

1,828.10

-1.70 (-0.09%)

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Silver Futures

21.130

+0.088 (+0.42%)

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Sell

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Copper Futures

3.7365

-0.0025 (-0.07%)

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Sell

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Crude Oil WTI Futures

107.06

+2.79 (+2.68%)

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Brent Oil Futures

113.19

+3.14 (+2.85%)

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6.173

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US Coffee C Futures

223.40

-5.60 (-2.45%)

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Euro Stoxx 50

3,533.17

+96.88 (+2.82%)

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Neutral

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S&P 500

3,911.74

+116.01 (+3.06%)

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DAX

13,118.13

+205.54 (+1.59%)

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FTSE 100

7,208.81

+188.36 (+2.68%)

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21,719.06

+445.19 (+2.09%)

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US Small Cap 2000

1,765.74

+54.06 (+3.16%)

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IBEX 35

8,244.10

+137.70 (+1.70%)

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Sell

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BASF SE NA O.N.

42.215

+0.785 (+1.89%)

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↑ Buy

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Bayer AG NA

57.79

-0.75 (-1.28%)

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Allianz SE VNA O.N.

181.20

+2.20 (+1.23%)

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↑ Sell

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Adidas AG

170.36

+3.30 (+1.98%)

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Deutsche Lufthansa AG

5.966

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102.62

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8.919

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 EUR/USD1.0554Buy
 GBP/USD1.2272↑ Sell
 USD/JPY135.23↑ Buy
 AUD/USD0.6944↑ Sell
 USD/CAD1.2891↑ Sell
 EUR/JPY142.71↑ Buy
 EUR/CHF1.0114↑ Sell
 Gold1,828.10↑ Buy
 Silver21.130Sell
 Copper3.7365Sell
 Crude Oil WTI107.06↑ Sell
 Brent Oil113.19↑ Sell
 Natural Gas6.173↑ Buy
 US Coffee C223.40↑ Buy
 Euro Stoxx 503,533.17Neutral
 S&P 5003,911.74↑ Buy
 DAX13,118.13↑ Sell
 FTSE 1007,208.81↑ Buy
 Hang Seng21,719.06↑ Buy
 Small Cap 20001,765.74↑ Buy
 IBEX 358,244.10Sell
 BASF42.215↑ Buy
 Bayer57.79↑ Sell
 Allianz181.20↑ Sell
 Adidas170.36↑ Sell
 Lufthansa5.966↑ Sell
 Siemens AG102.62↑ Buy
 Deutsche Bank AG8.919↑ Buy
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