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Ukraine war, higher rates to limit growth in developing Asia - ADB

Thursday, July 21, 2022
Ukraine war, higher rates to limit growth in developing Asia - ADB © Reuters. FILE PHOTO: A view shows cranes in front of the skyline of the Central Business District (CBD) in Beijing, China, October 18, 2021. REUTERS/Thomas Peter

By Karen Lema

MANILA (Reuters) - The Asian Development Bank (ADB) on Thursday slashed its growth forecasts for developing Asia for this year and next, reflecting the economic fallout from Russia's war in Ukraine and aggressive tightening by global central banks to tame inflation.

Also contributing to its weaker growth forecasts was a sharper-than-expected deceleration in China prompted by its lingering COVID-19 lockdowns, the ADB said in a supplement to its Asian Development Outlook report.

Downgrading its 2022 forecast for a third time, the ADB said it now expects the bloc's combined economy, which includes China and India, to expand 4.6%, slower than its 5.2% projection in April.

"Risks to developing Asia's economic outlook remain elevated and mainly associated with external factors," the ADB said, citing a substantial slowdown in global growth, the U.S. Federal Reserve's aggressive tightening, and surge in commodity prices.

For 2023, the region is forecast to grow 5.2%, down slightly from its earlier forecast of 5.3%, the ADB said.

"From within the region, downside risks could arise from the potentially lingering effects on supply chains from (China's) latest round of lockdowns and the country's growth slowdown, which could hinder developing Asia's growth momentum," the multilateral lending organisation said.

China's economy will likely expand 4.0% this year, the ADB said, a drop of 1 percentage point from its April forecast, but will recover lost ground in 2023 with growth seen at 4.8%.

The growth outlook for the sub-regions was mixed, with Southeast Asia, Central Asia and the Pacific expected to grow faster than initially projected, while South Asia was forecast to expand more slowly due to the economic crisis in Sri Lanka and high inflation in India.

The ADB chopped its growth forecast for South Asia to 6.5% from 7.0% this year and to 7.1% from 7.4% in 2023.

With soaring inflation gripping much of the world, the ADB upgraded its inflation forecasts for this year and next to 4.2% and 3.5 % from 3.7% and 3.1%, respectively.

"Inflation pressures in the region, are however, less than elsewhere in the world," the ADB said.

GDP GROWTH

2020 2021 2022 2022 2022 2022 2023 2023

SEPT DEC APR JULY APR JULY

Central Asia -2.0 5.6 4.2 4.4 3.6 3.8 4.0 4.1

East Asia 1.8 5.1 5.0 4.7 3.8 4.5 4.5

7.7

China 2.2 8.1 5.5 5.3 5.0 4.0 4.8 4.8

South Asia -5.2 7.0 7.0 7.0 6.5 7.4 7.1

8.1

India -6.6 7.5 7.5 7.5 7.2 8.0 7.8

8.7

SEast Asia -3.2 2.9 5.0 5.1 4.9 5.0 5.2 5.2

Indonesia -2.1 3.7 4.8 5.0 5.0 5.2 5.2 5.3

Malaysia -5.6 3.1 6.1 5.9 6.0 5.8 5.4 5.1

Myanmar 3.2 -18.4 n/a n/a -0.3 n/a 2.6 n/a

Philippines -9.6 5.5 6.0 6.0 6.5 6.3 6.3

5.7

Singapore -4.1 7.6 4.1 4.1 4.3 3.9 3.2 3.2

Thailand -6.2 3.9 4.0 3.0 2.9 4.5 4.2

1.5

Vietnam 2.9 2.6 6.5 6.5 6.5 6.5 6.7 6.7

The Pacific -6.0 -0.6 4.8 4.7 3.9 4.7 5.4 5.4

Developing -0.8 6.9 5.4 5.3 5.2 4.6 5.3 5.2

Asia

INFLATION

2020 2021 2022 2022 2022 2022 2023 2023

SEPT DEC APR JULY APR JULY

Central Asia 7.7 8.9 6.7 7.3 8.8 11.3 7.1 8.1

East Asia 2.2 1.1 2.2 2.0 2.4 2.3 2.0 2.1

China 2.5 0.9 2.3 2.1 2.3 2.1 2.0 2.0

South Asia 6.5 5.1 5.3 6.5 7.8 5.5 6.6

5.8

India 6.2 4.8 4.8 5.8 6.7 5.0 5.8

5.5

SEast Asia 1.5 2.0 2.4 2.5 3.7 4.7 3.1 3.4

Indonesia 2.0 1.6 2.7 2.7 3.6 4.0 3.0 3.3

Malaysia -1.1 2.5 2.3 2.3 3.0 2.7 2.5 2.5

Myanmar 5.7 3.6 n/a n/a 8.0 n/a 8.5 n/a

Philippines 2.4 3.9 3.5 3.7 4.2 4.9 3.5 4.3

Singapore -0.2 2.3 1.4 1.4 3.0 4.7 2.3 2.3

Thailand -0.8 1.2 1.0 1.4 3.3 6.3 2.2 2.7

Vietnam 3.2 1.8 3.5 3.8 3.8 3.8 4.0 4.0

The Pacific 2.9 3.1 4.1 4.1 5.9 5.9 4.7 4.7

Developing 3.2 2.5 2.7 2.7 3.7 4.2 3.1 3.5

Asia

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 GBP/USD1.2046↑ Buy
 USD/JPY134.35↑ Sell
 AUD/USD0.7009↑ Buy
 USD/CAD1.2883↑ Sell
 EUR/JPY136.25Neutral
 EUR/CHF0.9631↑ Buy
 Gold1,789.75Neutral
 Silver19.992Neutral
 Copper3.6190Sell
 Crude Oil WTI89.88↑ Sell
 Brent Oil95.30↑ Sell
 Natural Gas9.136↑ Buy
 US Coffee C223.58↑ Buy
 Euro Stoxx 503,797.45↑ Sell
 S&P 5004,297.14Neutral
 DAX13,868.46↑ Sell
 FTSE 1007,552.46↑ Sell
 Hang Seng19,830.52↑ Buy
 Small Cap 20002,020.40↑ Buy
 IBEX 358,497.03↑ Sell
 BASF44.398Neutral
 Bayer54.15↑ Sell
 Allianz179.82↑ Sell
 Adidas170.84↑ Sell
 Lufthansa6.737Sell
 Siemens AG111.25↑ Sell
 Deutsche Bank AG8.999↑ Sell
Mua/Bán 1 chỉ SJC
# So hôm qua # Chênh TG
SJC Eximbank6,580/ 6,680
(-10/ -10) # 1,639
SJC HCM6,600/ 6,700
(-10/ -10) # 1,659
SJC Hanoi6,600/ 6,702
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SJC Danang6,600/ 6,702
(-10/ -10) # 1,661
SJC Nhatrang6,600/ 6,702
(-10/ -10) # 1,661
SJC Cantho6,600/ 6,702
(-10/ -10) # 1,661
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