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Tesla Estimates, Price Target Cut at Morgan Stanley

By Sam Boughedda Tesla's (NASDAQ:TSLA) price target was cut to $1,200 per share from $1,300 by Morgan Stanley analyst and Tesla bull Adam Jonas on Wednesday. Jonas said the firm's...
Tesla Estimates, Price Target Cut at Morgan Stanley © Reuters Tesla (TSLA) Estimates, Price Target Cut at Morgan Stanley

By Sam Boughedda

Tesla's (NASDAQ:TSLA) price target was cut to $1,200 per share from $1,300 by Morgan Stanley analyst and Tesla bull Adam Jonas on Wednesday.

Jonas said the firm's second-quarter unit estimates have been cut to 270k units compared to the previous 316k units, taking their FY22 volume forecast to 1.390mm vs. 1.425mm previously.

"We mark to market our 2Q forecasts for lower volume (latest data, China) with most of the shortfall made up for in 2H volume and higher pricing. Target falls to $1,200 (vs. $1,300) almost entirely due to WACC increasing to 9% from 8.5% previously," said Jonas.

Jonas added that with their volume estimates, they have allowed for some "modicum of upside" given the "historic ability of Tesla to significantly increase production/sales in the latter weeks of a given quarter."

"According to data from EV-Volumes, since 2019 in the 3rd month of a given Q, TSLA's sales have ranged from 47%-69% of its quarterly sales. This continued in 1Q22 where March sales accounted for 58% of sales in the quarter. With TSLA 2Q sales estimated to be around 100k units through May (EV-Volumes), we believe TSLA will flex its manufacturing prowess, aided by accelerated ramp of Austin and Berlin, and deliver ~170-175k units in June, slightly below the estimated ~180k units delivered in March '22."

The analyst maintained an Overweight rating on the stock, adding that they would buy Tesla weakness on a potentially weak 2Q print.

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    EUR/USD 1.0658 ↑ Sell  
    GBP/USD 1.2475 ↑ Sell  
    USD/JPY 157.91 ↑ Buy  
    AUD/USD 0.6469 Neutral  
    USD/CAD 1.3780 ↑ Buy  
    EUR/JPY 168.32 ↑ Buy  
    EUR/CHF 0.9808 Neutral  
    Gold 2,295.80 ↑ Sell  
    Silver 26.677 ↑ Sell  
    Copper 4.5305 ↑ Buy  
    Crude Oil WTI 81.14 ↑ Sell  
    Brent Oil 85.62 ↑ Sell  
    Natural Gas 1.946 ↑ Sell  
    US Coffee C 213.73 ↑ Sell  
    Euro Stoxx 50 4,920.55 ↑ Sell  
    S&P 500 5,035.69 ↑ Sell  
    DAX 17,921.95 ↑ Sell  
    FTSE 100 8,144.13 Sell  
    Hang Seng 17,763.03 ↑ Sell  
    Small Cap 2000 1,973.05 ↑ Sell  
    IBEX 35 10,854.40 Neutral  
    BASF 49.155 ↑ Sell  
    Bayer 27.35 ↑ Sell  
    Allianz 266.60 ↑ Sell  
    Adidas 226.40 ↑ Sell  
    Lufthansa 6.714 Neutral  
    Siemens AG 175.90 ↑ Sell  
    Deutsche Bank AG 15.010 Neutral  
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