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Tesla among stocks to benefit from a soft landing as U.S. likely to avoid recession - GS

By Senad Karaahmetovic Goldman Sachs strategists urged the broker’s clients to hope for the best but plan for the worst, a lesson learned in 2022. While the consensus sees the U.S....
Tesla among stocks to benefit from a soft landing as U.S. likely to avoid recession - GS © Reuters. Tesla (TSLA) among stocks to benefit from a soft landing as US likely to avoid recession - GS
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By Senad Karaahmetovic

Goldman Sachs strategists urged the broker’s clients to hope for the best but plan for the worst, a lesson learned in 2022.

While the consensus sees the U.S. entering a recession in 2023, Goldman Sachs economists believe the U.S. will manage to avoid a recession. They assign only a ⅓ probability to this scenario and add that recent jobs and inflation reports are supportive of their view.

“Recent macro data point to a deceleration in wage gains and inflation. Our economists have a positive outlook for consumer spending but expect below-trend economic growth. Under a soft landing (no recession) scenario, we forecast S&P 500 EPS growth will be flat, as revenue growth is offset by a decline in margins. Consensus forecasts EPS growth of 3%,” the strategists wrote in a client note.

In case a soft landing is achieved, investors should own stocks like Tesla (NASDAQ:TSLA), Qualcomm (NASDAQ:QCOM), and Advanced Micro Devices (NASDAQ:AMD).

On a more negative note, the strategists note that the S&P 500 earnings revisions signal a hard landing for the U.S. economy.

“The current 3-month trend of S&P 500 forward EPS revision sentiment is the most negative reading outside of the 2008 and 2020 recessions. In a hard landing (recession) scenario, we forecast S&P 500 EPS will fall by 11% (vs. our baseline forecast of flat EPS and consensus of +3%),” they added.

In this case, Goldman advises its clients to own retailers like Home Depot (NYSE:HD), Lowe’s (NYSE:LOW), eBay (NASDAQ:EBAY), Costco (NASDAQ:COST), Kroger (NYSE:KR); tech names including Microsoft (NASDAQ:MSFT), Block (NYSE:SQ), Visa (NYSE:V) and Mastercard (NYSE:MA).

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04-10-2023 19:23:09 (UTC+7)

EUR/USD

1.0514

+0.0049 (+0.47%)

Summary

Buy

Moving Avg:

Buy (8)

Sell (4)

Indicators:

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Sell (1)

EUR/USD

1.0514

+0.0049 (+0.47%)

Summary

Buy

Moving Avg:

Buy (8)

Sell (4)

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Buy (5)

Sell (1)

GBP/USD

1.2154

+0.0078 (+0.65%)

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Moving Avg:

Buy (10)

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USD/JPY

148.88

-0.14 (-0.09%)

Summary

↑ Sell

Moving Avg:

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AUD/USD

0.6332

+0.0031 (+0.49%)

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Buy

Moving Avg:

Buy (8)

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Buy (5)

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USD/CAD

1.3711

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↑ Buy

Moving Avg:

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EUR/JPY

156.54

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0.9635

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9,155.99

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    EUR/USD 1.0514 Buy  
    GBP/USD 1.2154 ↑ Buy  
    USD/JPY 148.88 ↑ Sell  
    AUD/USD 0.6332 Buy  
    USD/CAD 1.3711 ↑ Buy  
    EUR/JPY 156.54 ↑ Buy  
    EUR/CHF 0.9635 Neutral  
    Gold 1,843.85 Buy  
    Silver 21.492 ↑ Buy  
    Copper 3.6105 ↑ Sell  
    Crude Oil WTI 87.25 ↑ Sell  
    Brent Oil 89.03 ↑ Sell  
    Natural Gas 2.992 Neutral  
    US Coffee C 148.03 ↑ Buy  
    Euro Stoxx 50 4,116.15 Neutral  
    S&P 500 4,229.45 ↑ Buy  
    DAX 15,141.85 Neutral  
    FTSE 100 7,456.86 ↑ Sell  
    Hang Seng 17,186.00 ↑ Buy  
    Small Cap 2000 1,724.80 Neutral  
    IBEX 35 9,155.99 ↑ Sell  
    BASF 42.135 ↑ Sell  
    Bayer 44.34 ↑ Buy  
    Allianz 220.85 ↑ Buy  
    Adidas 162.25 Sell  
    Lufthansa 7.135 ↑ Buy  
    Siemens AG 134.58 ↑ Buy  
    Deutsche Bank AG 9.950 Neutral  
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