net_left adver left

Take Five: Time to be forceful?

Friday, July 29, 2022
Take Five: Time to be forceful? © Reuters. FILE PHOTO: A boy refreshes himself in a fountain during hot weather as a heatwave hits Europe, in Brussels, Belgium July 19, 2022. REUTERS/Yves Herman

(Reuters) - Britain and Australia may opt for 50 basis-point rate hikes in coming days, given the high risk that markets will punish any central bank that hesitates to crack down on multi-decade high inflation.

But policymakers must also contend with cooling economies, with U.S. post-COVID job creation possibly topping out and a gas supply crunch potentially throwing Europe into recession.

Here is your week in markets from Dhara Ranasinghe, Karin Strohecker and Sujata Rao in London; Kevin Buckland in Ottawa and Lewis Krauskopf in New York.

1/ WINTER IS COMING

Even as Europe confronts record-high temperatures, gas shortages have got officials bracing for a cold, dark winter.

Russia's Gazprom (MCX:GAZP) has cut flows through the Nord Stream 1 pipeline to a fifth of capacity, and the EU is urging members to curb usage and store gas for winter.

European gas prices are up almost 200% so far this year and the longer this shock continues, the worse economies will fare.

With Germany's mighty industrial complex accounting for 36% of the country's gas demand, business activity is slowing there and consumer confidence has hit record lows. Eurozone recession may arrive by early-2023, JPMorgan (NYSE:JPM) warns.

European gas prices soar European gas prices soar: https://tmsnrt.rs/3vjIvjT

2/BOE-ING

The Bank of England started early, but has raised rates in smaller steps than its peers which are tightening policy in 50, 75 and even 100 basis-point increments. But a half-percentage point rise to 1.75% is possible on Aug. 4, which would be the biggest since 1995.

JPMorgan and HSBC are among those predicting a 50 bps move. While only three BoE policymakers favoured 50 bps at the last two meetings, data since then has shown inflation reaching 9.4%, a 40-year high. It could hit 12% by October - six times the BoE target.

Governor Andrew Bailey has pledged to act forcefully if needed. Yet, given the BoE sees barely any UK economic growth before 2025, a Reuters poll forecasts, by a slim margin, the BoE will stick with 25 bps.

The bank must then contend with the risk that a smaller hike triggers a sterling selloff, further fanning inflation.

Under pressure: https://tmsnrt.rs/3oBbVWN

3/ U.S. JOBS

A barrage of Federal Reserve rate hikes is slowing U.S. house price growth and forcing consumers to tighten their belts. Friday's non-farm payrolls data will show whether it is also impacting the red-hot employment market.

Given the Fed now favours a data-dependent approach over explicitly guiding markets on policy, the jobs figures and other numbers due over the next eight weeks until the next Fed meeting, carry added importance.

Employers are already becoming less enthusiastic on taking on staff, with corporations from Tesla (NASDAQ:TSLA) to Goldman Sachs (NYSE:GS) warning of slower hiring.

Analysts polled by Reuters estimate 255,000 jobs were added last month, following June's forecast-beating print of 372,000. A far smaller number may bolster the view that the Fed has reached "peak-hawkishness." [L1N2Z8227]

Job market recovery: https://tmsnrt.rs/3S5L3M1

4/HIGHER DOWN UNDER

Traders have eased off bets on a 75 bps Australian rate hike at Tuesday's Reserve Bank meeting. But with inflation at the hottest in 21 years, a half-point hike looks like a done deal.

Latest data showed consumer prices climbing at a 6.1% annual pace, more than double the 2-3% target, and double the pace of wage growth. And Treasurer Jim Chalmers warns it will get worse before it gets better.

RBA Governor Philip Lowe has indicated rates, currently at 1.35%, will rise toward a "neutral" level of at least 2.5%, though markets expect them to top out at 3.75%.

Initially wrong-footed by flaring inflation, Lowe has overseen three consecutive hikes since May - the most aggressive action in decades. That tardiness, and the way it communicated its intentions, have prompted a government probe into RBA policies and governance.

RBA looks for a path back to inflation target: https://tmsnrt.rs/3vlX46p

5/BRAZIL BREATHER

The four countries investors once grouped under the BRIC umbrella - Brazil, Russia, India and China - were always vastly different. That divergence shows up these days even in their relative monetary policy direction.

Uber-hiker Brazil, which jacked up rates by 1,125 basis points since March 2021, is expected to keep the benchmark at 13.35% when policymakers meet on Wednesday and leave it there for the remainder of 2022 before easing in 2023.

Meanwhile for India, a late entrant in the current round of global monetary policy tightening, the only way is up. The central bank intervened heavily in recent weeks to lift the rupee from a succession of record lows. A Reuters poll predicts Indian policymakers, who meet on Thursday, will lift rates from the current 4.90% by another three-quarters of a percentage points by end-year.

BRIC policy rates: https://tmsnrt.rs/3JcL8ti

Leave your comment
HOT AUTO TRADE BOT SOFTWARE adver right
APPROVED BROKERS
net_home_top HOT AUTO TRADE BOT SOFTWARE
17-08-2022 23:04:26 (UTC+7)

EUR/USD

1.0166

-0.0004 (-0.04%)

Summary

Neutral

Moving Avg:

Buy (4)

Sell (8)

Indicators:

Buy (3)

Sell (2)

EUR/USD

1.0166

-0.0004 (-0.04%)

Summary

Neutral

Moving Avg:

Buy (4)

Sell (8)

Indicators:

Buy (3)

Sell (2)

GBP/USD

1.2036

-0.0057 (-0.47%)

Summary

Sell

Moving Avg:

Buy (4)

Sell (8)

Indicators:

Buy (1)

Sell (5)

USD/JPY

135.41

+1.21 (+0.90%)

Summary

Buy

Moving Avg:

Buy (10)

Sell (2)

Indicators:

Buy (4)

Sell (2)

AUD/USD

0.6918

-0.0104 (-1.48%)

Summary

↑ Buy

Moving Avg:

Buy (8)

Sell (4)

Indicators:

Buy (6)

Sell (1)

USD/CAD

1.2926

+0.0083 (+0.64%)

Summary

↑ Sell

Moving Avg:

Buy (4)

Sell (8)

Indicators:

Buy (0)

Sell (8)

EUR/JPY

137.66

+1.17 (+0.86%)

Summary

Buy

Moving Avg:

Buy (9)

Sell (3)

Indicators:

Buy (4)

Sell (2)

EUR/CHF

0.9697

+0.0043 (+0.45%)

Summary

↑ Buy

Moving Avg:

Buy (12)

Sell (0)

Indicators:

Buy (8)

Sell (0)

Gold Futures

1,775.75

-13.95 (-0.78%)

Summary

↑ Sell

Moving Avg:

Buy (1)

Sell (11)

Indicators:

Buy (0)

Sell (10)

Silver Futures

19.657

-0.428 (-2.13%)

Summary

↑ Buy

Moving Avg:

Buy (7)

Sell (5)

Indicators:

Buy (6)

Sell (2)

Copper Futures

3.5833

-0.0412 (-1.14%)

Summary

↑ Buy

Moving Avg:

Buy (10)

Sell (2)

Indicators:

Buy (9)

Sell (0)

Crude Oil WTI Futures

86.84

+0.31 (+0.36%)

Summary

↑ Buy

Moving Avg:

Buy (8)

Sell (4)

Indicators:

Buy (6)

Sell (1)

Brent Oil Futures

92.56

+0.22 (+0.24%)

Summary

↑ Buy

Moving Avg:

Buy (8)

Sell (4)

Indicators:

Buy (8)

Sell (0)

Natural Gas Futures

9.216

-0.113 (-1.21%)

Summary

Neutral

Moving Avg:

Buy (6)

Sell (6)

Indicators:

Buy (2)

Sell (4)

US Coffee C Futures

218.33

-1.02 (-0.47%)

Summary

↑ Sell

Moving Avg:

Buy (0)

Sell (12)

Indicators:

Buy (0)

Sell (9)

Euro Stoxx 50

3,756.06

-49.16 (-1.29%)

Summary

Sell

Moving Avg:

Buy (5)

Sell (7)

Indicators:

Buy (1)

Sell (4)

S&P 500

4,259.80

-45.40 (-1.05%)

Summary

Buy

Moving Avg:

Buy (6)

Sell (6)

Indicators:

Buy (7)

Sell (1)

DAX

13,626.71

-283.41 (-2.04%)

Summary

Sell

Moving Avg:

Buy (2)

Sell (10)

Indicators:

Buy (2)

Sell (3)

FTSE 100

7,516.15

-19.91 (-0.26%)

Summary

Neutral

Moving Avg:

Buy (7)

Sell (5)

Indicators:

Buy (4)

Sell (4)

Hang Seng

19,922.45

+91.93 (+0.46%)

Summary

Neutral

Moving Avg:

Buy (6)

Sell (6)

Indicators:

Buy (0)

Sell (4)

US Small Cap 2000

1,977.40

-42.86 (-2.12%)

Summary

↑ Buy

Moving Avg:

Buy (8)

Sell (4)

Indicators:

Buy (7)

Sell (1)

IBEX 35

8,434.80

-77.10 (-0.91%)

Summary

Neutral

Moving Avg:

Buy (4)

Sell (8)

Indicators:

Buy (4)

Sell (1)

BASF SE NA O.N.

42.685

-2.065 (-4.61%)

Summary

Neutral

Moving Avg:

Buy (6)

Sell (6)

Indicators:

Buy (5)

Sell (2)

Bayer AG NA

53.37

-0.93 (-1.71%)

Summary

Neutral

Moving Avg:

Buy (5)

Sell (7)

Indicators:

Buy (4)

Sell (3)

Allianz SE VNA O.N.

177.54

-2.40 (-1.33%)

Summary

Buy

Moving Avg:

Buy (6)

Sell (6)

Indicators:

Buy (6)

Sell (1)

Adidas AG

169.10

-4.26 (-2.46%)

Summary

↑ Sell

Moving Avg:

Buy (2)

Sell (10)

Indicators:

Buy (2)

Sell (8)

Deutsche Lufthansa AG

6.467

-0.280 (-4.15%)

Summary

↑ Sell

Moving Avg:

Buy (0)

Sell (12)

Indicators:

Buy (0)

Sell (9)

Siemens AG Class N

108.64

-3.40 (-3.03%)

Summary

↑ Sell

Moving Avg:

Buy (0)

Sell (12)

Indicators:

Buy (0)

Sell (10)

Deutsche Bank AG

8.856

-0.108 (-1.20%)

Summary

Neutral

Moving Avg:

Buy (6)

Sell (6)

Indicators:

Buy (4)

Sell (3)

 EUR/USD1.0166Neutral
 GBP/USD1.2036Sell
 USD/JPY135.41Buy
 AUD/USD0.6918↑ Buy
 USD/CAD1.2926↑ Sell
 EUR/JPY137.66Buy
 EUR/CHF0.9697↑ Buy
 Gold1,775.75↑ Sell
 Silver19.657↑ Buy
 Copper3.5833↑ Buy
 Crude Oil WTI86.84↑ Buy
 Brent Oil92.56↑ Buy
 Natural Gas9.216Neutral
 US Coffee C218.33↑ Sell
 Euro Stoxx 503,756.06Sell
 S&P 5004,259.80Buy
 DAX13,626.71Sell
 FTSE 1007,516.15Neutral
 Hang Seng19,922.45Neutral
 Small Cap 20001,977.40↑ Buy
 IBEX 358,434.80Neutral
 BASF42.685Neutral
 Bayer53.37Neutral
 Allianz177.54Buy
 Adidas169.10↑ Sell
 Lufthansa6.467↑ Sell
 Siemens AG108.64↑ Sell
 Deutsche Bank AG8.856Neutral
Mua/Bán 1 chỉ SJC
# So hôm qua # Chênh TG
SJC Eximbank6,600/ 6,700
(20/ 20) # 1,674
SJC HCM6,620/ 6,720
(20/ 20) # 1,695
SJC Hanoi6,620/ 6,722
(20/ 20) # 1,697
SJC Danang6,620/ 6,722
(20/ 20) # 1,697
SJC Nhatrang6,620/ 6,722
(20/ 20) # 1,697
SJC Cantho6,620/ 6,722
(20/ 20) # 1,697
Cập nhật 17-08-2022 23:04:28
Xem lịch sử giá vàng SJC: nhấn đây!
ↀ Giá vàng thế giới
$1,762.16-13.52-0.76%
Live 24 hour Gold Chart
ʘ Giá bán lẻ xăng dầu
Sản phẩmVùng 1Vùng 2
RON 95-V25.34025.840
RON 95-III24.66025.150
E5 RON 92-II23.72024.190
DO 0.05S22.90023.350
DO 0,001S-V24.88025.370
Dầu hỏa 2-K23.32023.780
ↂ Giá dầu thô thế giới
WTI$86.08+0.530.62%
Brent$91.85+0.560.60%
$ Tỷ giá Vietcombank
Ngoại tệMua vàoBán ra
USD23.235,0023.545,00
EUR23.186,9924.485,46
GBP27.597,2628.774,17
JPY169,51179,46
KRW15,4518,83
Cập nhật lúc 18:50:59 17/08/2022
Xem bảng tỷ giá hối đoái
adver main right