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Stocks creep higher as inflation data offers hope ahead of Fed

05 Tháng Giêng 2023
Stocks creep higher as inflation data offers hope ahead of Fed © Reuters. FILE PHOTO: A man on a bicycle stands in front of an electronic board showing Shanghai stock index, Nikkei share price index and Dow Jones Industrial Average outside a brokerage in Tokyo, Japan September 22, 2022. REUTERS/Kim Kyung-Hoon
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By Ankur Banerjee and Lawrence White

SINGAPORE/LONDON (Reuters) - European and Asian shares rose on Wednesday thanks to positive news about inflation and China's strict anti-COVID measures, while the dollar backpedalled as investors await minutes from the Federal Reserve's most recent meeting.

The pan-European STOXX 600 was up 0.9% by 0835 GMT as a lower inflation reading from France boosted sentiment, adding to encouraging data from Germany earlier in the week.

MSCI's broadest index of Asia-Pacific shares outside Japan was 1.8% higher and set for a third straight day of gains for the year, having fallen 20% in 2022, its worst performance since 2008.

The gains in both regions showed some optimism about two of the factors that made 2022 such a hellish year for investors, namely spiralling inflation and the impact on economic growth of anti-COVID restrictions in major economies such as China.

But jitters in other assets showed the path ahead will be far from smooth as policymakers grapple with trying to increase rates to curb inflation without stifling the economic recovery.

Minutes from the Fed's December meeting, when it cautioned rates may need to stay higher for longer, are due to be released later on Wednesday. Investors will parse the minutes to figure out whether more policy tightening is likely.

"The market has made a pretty tentative start to the year ... (and) is still grappling with the notion of what we are going to see from the Fed this year," said Rob Carnell, head of ING's Asia-Pacific research.

"There are two camps out there and they are wrestling for dominance in terms of the view. Some days higher-for-longer wins, some days (the) higher-then-lower camp wins," Carnell said.

U.S. shares, which have started the year more tentatively amid big falls in key stocks such as Tesla (NASDAQ:TSLA), looked set to open with modest gains. E-mini futures for the S&P 500 rose 0.5%.

The U.S. central bank said last month when it raised interest rates by 50 basis points that the terminal rates may need to remain higher for longer to fight inflation.

Markets however are pricing in rate cuts for late 2023, with fed fund futures implying a range of 4.25% to 4.5% by December.

Investors will get a better picture of the U.S. labour market this week, with several pieces of data scheduled, culminating in the employment report on Friday.

A weakening jobs market is seen as one of the key pieces needed to convince the Fed to begin slowing its monetary tightening path.

"It is too early to start betting on a Fed pivot this year, and that should make this difficult environment for stocks," said Edward Moya, senior market analyst at Oanda in New York.

The dollar index, which measures the greenback against six other currencies, fell 0.74% after rising 1% overnight in a sign of investors' uncertainty about the path forward for rates.

The yield on 10-year Treasury notes fell to 3.6958%, and 2-year Treasury yields, which typically move in step with interest rate expectations, slipped 6 basis points.

Sterling was last trading at $1.2055, up 0.74%, while the euro rose 0.6% to $1.0610, coming off a three-week low of $1.0519 touched overnight.

The dollar's weakness lifted gold, with spot prices up 1%.

The Japanese yen strengthened 0.12% versus the greenback to 130.85 per dollar.

Chinese stocks climbed, while Hong Kong's Hang Seng Index jumped to its highest since July as equity investors remained optimistic about a recovery in the wake of China dismantling its stringent "zero-COVID" policy.

Oil prices slid further however as concerns about weak global demand and the possibility of further U.S. interest rate increases outweighed any optimism about the benefits of China's policy change.

"Fresh warnings about the effect of aggressive rate hikes on the U.S. economy are rattling traders again, with the oil price continuing its march downwards," said Susannah Streeter, senior investment and markets analyst at Hargreaves Lansdown.

U.S. crude fell 1.62% to $75.68 per barrel, while Brent was at $80.68, down 1.73% on the day.

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02-02-2023 17:34:27 (UTC+7)

EUR/USD

1.0984

-0.0005 (-0.05%)

Summary

↑ Sell

Moving Avg:

Buy (2)

Sell (10)

Indicators:

Buy (0)

Sell (8)

EUR/USD

1.0984

-0.0005 (-0.05%)

Summary

↑ Sell

Moving Avg:

Buy (2)

Sell (10)

Indicators:

Buy (0)

Sell (8)

GBP/USD

1.2323

-0.0053 (-0.42%)

Summary

↑ Sell

Moving Avg:

Buy (0)

Sell (12)

Indicators:

Buy (0)

Sell (7)

USD/JPY

128.93

-0.01 (-0.00%)

Summary

↑ Buy

Moving Avg:

Buy (11)

Sell (1)

Indicators:

Buy (7)

Sell (1)

AUD/USD

0.7125

-0.0010 (-0.14%)

Summary

↑ Sell

Moving Avg:

Buy (0)

Sell (12)

Indicators:

Buy (2)

Sell (9)

USD/CAD

1.3289

+0.0002 (+0.02%)

Summary

↑ Buy

Moving Avg:

Buy (10)

Sell (2)

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Buy (9)

Sell (0)

EUR/JPY

141.60

-0.07 (-0.05%)

Summary

↑ Sell

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Buy (3)

Sell (9)

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Buy (0)

Sell (7)

EUR/CHF

0.9992

+0.0013 (+0.13%)

Summary

Sell

Moving Avg:

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Sell (4)

Gold Futures

1,970.60

+27.80 (+1.43%)

Summary

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Silver Futures

24.383

+0.774 (+3.28%)

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Copper Futures

4.1570

+0.0460 (+1.12%)

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Crude Oil WTI Futures

76.81

+0.40 (+0.52%)

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83.12

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2.491

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US Coffee C Futures

178.28

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Euro Stoxx 50

4,219.35

+47.91 (+1.15%)

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S&P 500

4,119.21

+42.61 (+1.05%)

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Neutral

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DAX

15,416.05

+235.31 (+1.55%)

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FTSE 100

7,804.99

+43.88 (+0.57%)

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21,958.36

-113.82 (-0.52%)

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Sell (12)

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US Small Cap 2000

1,960.81

+28.87 (+1.49%)

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Neutral

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Sell (3)

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9,227.64

+129.54 (+1.42%)

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53.385

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56.88

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222.20

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154.23

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9.802

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144.20

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12.023

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    EUR/USD 1.0984 ↑ Sell  
    GBP/USD 1.2323 ↑ Sell  
    USD/JPY 128.93 ↑ Buy  
    AUD/USD 0.7125 ↑ Sell  
    USD/CAD 1.3289 ↑ Buy  
    EUR/JPY 141.60 ↑ Sell  
    EUR/CHF 0.9992 Sell  
    Gold 1,970.60 ↑ Sell  
    Silver 24.383 ↑ Buy  
    Copper 4.1570 ↑ Buy  
    Crude Oil WTI 76.81 ↑ Buy  
    Brent Oil 83.12 ↑ Buy  
    Natural Gas 2.491 Buy  
    US Coffee C 178.28 ↑ Sell  
    Euro Stoxx 50 4,219.35 ↑ Buy  
    S&P 500 4,119.21 Neutral  
    DAX 15,416.05 ↑ Buy  
    FTSE 100 7,804.99 ↑ Buy  
    Hang Seng 21,958.36 ↑ Sell  
    Small Cap 2000 1,960.81 Neutral  
    IBEX 35 9,227.64 ↑ Buy  
    BASF 53.385 ↑ Buy  
    Bayer 56.88 ↑ Buy  
    Allianz 222.20 Neutral  
    Adidas 154.23 ↑ Buy  
    Lufthansa 9.802 ↑ Buy  
    Siemens AG 144.20 ↑ Buy  
    Deutsche Bank AG 12.023 Neutral  
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SJC Eximbank6,710/ 6,770
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Cập nhật 02-02-2023 17:34:29
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$1,955.91 +3.24 0.17%
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RON 95-V24.00024.480
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JPY177,65188,07
KRW16,6420,27
Cập nhật lúc 17:29:07 02/02/2023
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