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Marketmind: Who wants to be a central banker?

13 Tháng Sáu 2022
Marketmind: Who wants to be a central banker? © Reuters. A shopping cart is seen in a supermarket as inflation affected consumer prices in Manhattan, New York City, U.S., June 10, 2022. REUTERS/Andrew Kelly

A look at the day ahead in markets from Sujata Rao.

A half-point U.S. Fed interest rate rise was always a done deal for Wednesday, but with annual inflation rising at the fastest since 1981, expectations are growing of a 75 basis-point move, either this month, or at one of the bank's upcoming meetings.

That's sent two-year Treasury yields to 15-year highs at almost 3.2%, having jumped 40 bps last week. The dollar has surged back to four-week peaks.

GRAPHIC: CPI and wage growth (https://graphics.reuters.com/USA-STOCKS/gkvlgznropb/cpiwages.png)

But the combo of inflation and central bank action is tightening the screws on the economy, sending U.S. consumer sentiment to a record low in early-June.

With the 2-year/10-year Treasury yield curve back on track for inversion, recession warnings are flashing.

The Fed is not the only game in town this week, with policy meetings scheduled in Britain, Japan and Switzerland. The Bank of England, particularly, has its work cut out, after Monday's data showed GDP shrank in April.

Near-10% inflation (exacerbated by sterling weakness) will force the Bank of England stick to plans for a 25 bps rate hike on Thursday, but navigating the inflation-growth dilemma may prove trickier than elsewhere.

Given inflation angst has transformed hitherto-dovish policymakers into hawks, more surprises may loom; the Swiss National Bank may decide on Thursday it's time for a hawkish pivot and Sweden may spring a half-point rate rise on Friday.

And Japan? The yen is at 24-year lows beyond 135.20 per dollar, despite last week's joint government-central bank statement that raised expectations of currency intervention.

What would really stem yen decline is a softer Bank of Japan line on yield curve control.

But there's no such pivot yet; the BOJ plans to buy 500 billion yen ($3.70 billion) of government bonds on Tuesday to keep 10-year yields within 0.25 percentage points around 0%.

Throw in Beijing's new "ferocious" COVID-19 outbreak and global recession increasingly seems like a done deal.

European and U.S. shares are looking at a dour session ahead and world stocks are at the lowest in three weeks.

GRAPHIC: Japan currency (https://fingfx.thomsonreuters.com/gfx/mkt/myvmnwzrlpr/G10%20FX%20performance%20YTD.JPG)

Key developments that should provide more direction to markets on Monday:

- Oil falls, spooked by Beijing COVID warning and inflation

-French President Emmanuel Macron has a razor-thin edge over the left, first parliament elections show

-ECB policymakers Robert Holzmann and Luis de Guindos speak

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BROKERS ĐƯỢC CẤP PHÉP
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30-06-2022 20:45:03 (UTC+7)

EUR/USD

1.0412

-0.0027 (-0.26%)

Summary

Sell

Moving Avg:

Buy (6)

Sell (6)

Indicators:

Buy (3)

Sell (6)

EUR/USD

1.0412

-0.0027 (-0.26%)

Summary

Sell

Moving Avg:

Buy (6)

Sell (6)

Indicators:

Buy (3)

Sell (6)

GBP/USD

1.2154

+0.0029 (+0.24%)

Summary

Neutral

Moving Avg:

Buy (9)

Sell (3)

Indicators:

Buy (3)

Sell (4)

USD/JPY

135.84

-0.74 (-0.55%)

Summary

↑ Sell

Moving Avg:

Buy (2)

Sell (10)

Indicators:

Buy (0)

Sell (7)

AUD/USD

0.6905

+0.0024 (+0.35%)

Summary

Neutral

Moving Avg:

Buy (7)

Sell (5)

Indicators:

Buy (0)

Sell (7)

USD/CAD

1.2899

+0.0008 (+0.06%)

Summary

↑ Buy

Moving Avg:

Buy (9)

Sell (3)

Indicators:

Buy (10)

Sell (1)

EUR/JPY

141.42

-1.16 (-0.81%)

Summary

↑ Sell

Moving Avg:

Buy (0)

Sell (12)

Indicators:

Buy (1)

Sell (10)

EUR/CHF

0.9951

-0.0020 (-0.20%)

Summary

↑ Sell

Moving Avg:

Buy (0)

Sell (12)

Indicators:

Buy (2)

Sell (8)

Gold Futures

1,818.15

+0.65 (+0.04%)

Summary

↑ Sell

Moving Avg:

Buy (5)

Sell (7)

Indicators:

Buy (0)

Sell (8)

Silver Futures

20.477

-0.261 (-1.26%)

Summary

↑ Sell

Moving Avg:

Buy (3)

Sell (9)

Indicators:

Buy (0)

Sell (8)

Copper Futures

3.7075

-0.0730 (-1.93%)

Summary

↑ Sell

Moving Avg:

Buy (2)

Sell (10)

Indicators:

Buy (1)

Sell (10)

Crude Oil WTI Futures

108.28

-1.50 (-1.37%)

Summary

Buy

Moving Avg:

Buy (6)

Sell (6)

Indicators:

Buy (7)

Sell (1)

Brent Oil Futures

111.09

-1.36 (-1.21%)

Summary

Buy

Moving Avg:

Buy (6)

Sell (6)

Indicators:

Buy (7)

Sell (1)

Natural Gas Futures

6.551

+0.053 (+0.82%)

Summary

↑ Buy

Moving Avg:

Buy (12)

Sell (0)

Indicators:

Buy (9)

Sell (1)

US Coffee C Futures

229.23

+0.98 (+0.43%)

Summary

↑ Sell

Moving Avg:

Buy (0)

Sell (12)

Indicators:

Buy (0)

Sell (9)

Euro Stoxx 50

3,424.35

-89.97 (-2.56%)

Summary

↑ Sell

Moving Avg:

Buy (0)

Sell (12)

Indicators:

Buy (0)

Sell (8)

S&P 500

3,754.80

-64.03 (-1.68%)

Summary

↑ Sell

Moving Avg:

Buy (0)

Sell (12)

Indicators:

Buy (0)

Sell (7)

DAX

12,650.81

-352.54 (-2.71%)

Summary

↑ Sell

Moving Avg:

Buy (0)

Sell (12)

Indicators:

Buy (0)

Sell (8)

FTSE 100

7,130.62

-181.70 (-2.48%)

Summary

↑ Sell

Moving Avg:

Buy (1)

Sell (11)

Indicators:

Buy (0)

Sell (10)

Hang Seng

21,859.79

-137.10 (-0.62%)

Summary

Sell

Moving Avg:

Buy (1)

Sell (11)

Indicators:

Buy (3)

Sell (3)

US Small Cap 2000

1,685.75

-27.57 (-1.61%)

Summary

↑ Sell

Moving Avg:

Buy (0)

Sell (12)

Indicators:

Buy (0)

Sell (6)

IBEX 35

8,003.84

-184.16 (-2.25%)

Summary

↑ Sell

Moving Avg:

Buy (0)

Sell (12)

Indicators:

Buy (0)

Sell (8)

BASF SE NA O.N.

39.875

-1.705 (-4.10%)

Summary

↑ Sell

Moving Avg:

Buy (0)

Sell (12)

Indicators:

Buy (0)

Sell (7)

Bayer AG NA

56.47

-1.15 (-2.00%)

Summary

↑ Sell

Moving Avg:

Buy (0)

Sell (12)

Indicators:

Buy (0)

Sell (10)

Allianz SE VNA O.N.

180.69

-3.03 (-1.65%)

Summary

↑ Sell

Moving Avg:

Buy (0)

Sell (12)

Indicators:

Buy (0)

Sell (8)

Adidas AG

167.21

-2.81 (-1.65%)

Summary

↑ Sell

Moving Avg:

Buy (2)

Sell (10)

Indicators:

Buy (0)

Sell (9)

Deutsche Lufthansa AG

5.340

-0.473 (-8.14%)

Summary

↑ Sell

Moving Avg:

Buy (0)

Sell (12)

Indicators:

Buy (0)

Sell (8)

Siemens AG Class N

96.86

-4.54 (-4.48%)

Summary

↑ Sell

Moving Avg:

Buy (1)

Sell (11)

Indicators:

Buy (0)

Sell (9)

Deutsche Bank AG

8.201

-0.370 (-4.32%)

Summary

↑ Sell

Moving Avg:

Buy (0)

Sell (12)

Indicators:

Buy (0)

Sell (10)

 EUR/USD1.0412Sell
 GBP/USD1.2154Neutral
 USD/JPY135.84↑ Sell
 AUD/USD0.6905Neutral
 USD/CAD1.2899↑ Buy
 EUR/JPY141.42↑ Sell
 EUR/CHF0.9951↑ Sell
 Gold1,818.15↑ Sell
 Silver20.477↑ Sell
 Copper3.7075↑ Sell
 Crude Oil WTI108.28Buy
 Brent Oil111.09Buy
 Natural Gas6.551↑ Buy
 US Coffee C229.23↑ Sell
 Euro Stoxx 503,424.35↑ Sell
 S&P 5003,754.80↑ Sell
 DAX12,650.81↑ Sell
 FTSE 1007,130.62↑ Sell
 Hang Seng21,859.79Sell
 Small Cap 20001,685.75↑ Sell
 IBEX 358,003.84↑ Sell
 BASF39.875↑ Sell
 Bayer56.47↑ Sell
 Allianz180.69↑ Sell
 Adidas167.21↑ Sell
 Lufthansa5.340↑ Sell
 Siemens AG96.86↑ Sell
 Deutsche Bank AG8.201↑ Sell
Mua/Bán 1 chỉ SJC
# So hôm qua # Chênh TG
SJC Eximbank6,810/ 6,870
(5/ 5) # 1,764
SJC HCM6,830/ 6,890
(10/ 0) # 1,783
SJC Hanoi6,830/ 6,892
(10/ 0) # 1,785
SJC Danang6,830/ 6,892
(10/ 0) # 1,785
SJC Nhatrang6,830/ 6,892
(10/ 0) # 1,785
SJC Cantho6,830/ 6,892
(10/ 0) # 1,785
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Cập nhật lúc 18:51:16 30/06/2022
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