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Marketmind: No rest for the weary

A look at the day ahead in European and global markets from Vidya Ranganathan With just hours to go before the Fed goes 75 basis points, or even 100, and the Bank of Japan...
Marketmind: No rest for the weary © Reuters. British Prime Minister Liz Truss (left) meets Ukrainian First Lady, Olena Zelenska at The Ukrainian Institute of America, where they viewed an exhibition illustrating the atrocities taking place in Ukraine, in New York City, New York, U.S., September 20,
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A look at the day ahead in European and global markets from Vidya Ranganathan

With just hours to go before the Fed goes 75 basis points, or even 100, and the Bank of Japan declares commitment to zero, one would have expected markets to be poised, sedate even. The decisions are widely priced in.

That's however not the nature of these things. Asia has woken up on Wednesday determined to test the BOJ's resolve, by pushing bond yields up and beyond policy bounds.

World stocks are sinking, benchmark two-year U.S. Treasuries are reaching for 4% and the dollar is unrelenting in its stride back towards 20-year highs.

That number -- four -- is in every conversation. Swaps markets are pricing Fed rates above 4 through 2023, but the Fed's own projection falls short.

Investors see at least four risks tomorrow. Will the Fed's Dot Plot be revised to show a peak rate of 4% in 2022, and unanimously? Will Powell clarify on his "higher for longer"? Will markets be forced to reverse their expectations and pricing for a Fed pivot, i.e. rate cuts in the second half of next year? Will the Fed revise economic projections, too, and admit prices will take longer to stabilise than they now expect?

Commodities markets and stocks are growing more weary of the prolonged debate on whether the Fed and other central banks are going too far.

Oil prices are on track for their worst quarterly drops since the beginning of the COVID-19 pandemic, and dire warnings have come from Ford and FedEx (NYSE:FDX), among others, on the threat of economic slowdown.

It hasn't helped that European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde, too, has joined the hawkish chorus on the need for restrictive policy.

Meanwhile, Liz Truss speaks to the United Nations later in the day as part of her first international trip as British prime minister and is expected to promise billions of pounds of more support for Ukraine next year.

Key developments that could influence markets on Wednesday:

WASHINGTON, D.C. – The U.S. Federal Reserve's Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) announces its decision on interest rates followed by statement – 1800 GMT.

FRANKFURT – The Governing Council of the ECB holds non-monetary policy meeting in Frankfurt.

BERLIN - German Finance Minister Christian Lindner speaks on energy crisis, inflation, recession fears – 0800 GMT.

TOKYO – The Bank of Japan holds Monetary Policy Meeting (To Sep 22)

BRAZIL central bank rate decision

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01-10-2023 16:19:47 (UTC+7)

EUR/USD

1.0572

+0.0013 (+0.12%)

Summary

↑ Sell

Moving Avg:

Buy (1)

Sell (11)

Indicators:

Buy (1)

Sell (7)

EUR/USD

1.0572

+0.0013 (+0.12%)

Summary

↑ Sell

Moving Avg:

Buy (1)

Sell (11)

Indicators:

Buy (1)

Sell (7)

GBP/USD

1.2201

+0.0004 (+0.03%)

Summary

↑ Sell

Moving Avg:

Buy (3)

Sell (9)

Indicators:

Buy (3)

Sell (6)

USD/JPY

149.38

+0.10 (+0.06%)

Summary

Neutral

Moving Avg:

Buy (6)

Sell (6)

Indicators:

Buy (2)

Sell (4)

AUD/USD

0.6438

+0.0015 (+0.23%)

Summary

↑ Buy

Moving Avg:

Buy (12)

Sell (0)

Indicators:

Buy (5)

Sell (2)

USD/CAD

1.3575

+0.0089 (+0.66%)

Summary

↑ Buy

Moving Avg:

Buy (7)

Sell (5)

Indicators:

Buy (7)

Sell (2)

EUR/JPY

157.92

+0.17 (+0.11%)

Summary

↑ Sell

Moving Avg:

Buy (0)

Sell (12)

Indicators:

Buy (0)

Sell (9)

EUR/CHF

0.9677

+0.0010 (+0.10%)

Summary

Neutral

Moving Avg:

Buy (8)

Sell (4)

Indicators:

Buy (1)

Sell (5)

Gold Futures

1,864.60

-14.00 (-0.75%)

Summary

↑ Sell

Moving Avg:

Buy (0)

Sell (12)

Indicators:

Buy (0)

Sell (8)

Silver Futures

22.390

-0.351 (-1.54%)

Summary

Neutral

Moving Avg:

Buy (7)

Sell (5)

Indicators:

Buy (1)

Sell (7)

Copper Futures

3.7340

+0.0260 (+0.70%)

Summary

↑ Buy

Moving Avg:

Buy (12)

Sell (0)

Indicators:

Buy (9)

Sell (0)

Crude Oil WTI Futures

90.77

-0.94 (-1.02%)

Summary

↑ Sell

Moving Avg:

Buy (0)

Sell (12)

Indicators:

Buy (0)

Sell (7)

Brent Oil Futures

92.09

-1.01 (-1.08%)

Summary

↑ Sell

Moving Avg:

Buy (0)

Sell (12)

Indicators:

Buy (0)

Sell (5)

Natural Gas Futures

2.930

-0.015 (-0.51%)

Summary

↑ Sell

Moving Avg:

Buy (0)

Sell (12)

Indicators:

Buy (0)

Sell (5)

US Coffee C Futures

145.23

-1.97 (-1.34%)

Summary

↑ Sell

Moving Avg:

Buy (0)

Sell (12)

Indicators:

Buy (0)

Sell (9)

Euro Stoxx 50

4,173.35

+11.79 (+0.28%)

Summary

↑ Sell

Moving Avg:

Buy (0)

Sell (12)

Indicators:

Buy (0)

Sell (9)

S&P 500

4,288.05

-11.65 (-0.27%)

Summary

↑ Sell

Moving Avg:

Buy (2)

Sell (10)

Indicators:

Buy (1)

Sell (7)

DAX

15,386.58

+63.08 (+0.41%)

Summary

↑ Sell

Moving Avg:

Buy (0)

Sell (12)

Indicators:

Buy (0)

Sell (8)

FTSE 100

7,608.08

+6.23 (+0.08%)

Summary

↑ Sell

Moving Avg:

Buy (0)

Sell (12)

Indicators:

Buy (0)

Sell (9)

Hang Seng

17,822.00

+471.00 (+2.71%)

Summary

Buy

Moving Avg:

Buy (8)

Sell (4)

Indicators:

Buy (3)

Sell (2)

US Small Cap 2000

1,785.10

-9.21 (-0.51%)

Summary

↑ Sell

Moving Avg:

Buy (1)

Sell (11)

Indicators:

Buy (2)

Sell (7)

IBEX 35

9,428.00

+1.20 (+0.01%)

Summary

↑ Sell

Moving Avg:

Buy (0)

Sell (12)

Indicators:

Buy (0)

Sell (10)

BASF SE NA O.N.

42.950

+0.305 (+0.72%)

Summary

↑ Sell

Moving Avg:

Buy (0)

Sell (12)

Indicators:

Buy (2)

Sell (7)

Bayer AG NA

45.45

+0.10 (+0.22%)

Summary

↑ Sell

Moving Avg:

Buy (0)

Sell (12)

Indicators:

Buy (2)

Sell (5)

Allianz SE VNA O.N.

225.70

-2.85 (-1.25%)

Summary

Sell

Moving Avg:

Buy (0)

Sell (12)

Indicators:

Buy (4)

Sell (4)

Adidas AG

166.62

+9.76 (+6.22%)

Summary

↑ Sell

Moving Avg:

Buy (0)

Sell (12)

Indicators:

Buy (0)

Sell (7)

Deutsche Lufthansa AG

7.506

-0.023 (-0.31%)

Summary

Neutral

Moving Avg:

Buy (1)

Sell (11)

Indicators:

Buy (5)

Sell (1)

Siemens AG Class N

135.66

+0.08 (+0.06%)

Summary

↑ Sell

Moving Avg:

Buy (0)

Sell (12)

Indicators:

Buy (2)

Sell (5)

Deutsche Bank AG

10.450

+0.068 (+0.65%)

Summary

↑ Sell

Moving Avg:

Buy (0)

Sell (12)

Indicators:

Buy (2)

Sell (6)

    EUR/USD 1.0572 ↑ Sell  
    GBP/USD 1.2201 ↑ Sell  
    USD/JPY 149.38 Neutral  
    AUD/USD 0.6438 ↑ Buy  
    USD/CAD 1.3575 ↑ Buy  
    EUR/JPY 157.92 ↑ Sell  
    EUR/CHF 0.9677 Neutral  
    Gold 1,864.60 ↑ Sell  
    Silver 22.390 Neutral  
    Copper 3.7340 ↑ Buy  
    Crude Oil WTI 90.77 ↑ Sell  
    Brent Oil 92.09 ↑ Sell  
    Natural Gas 2.930 ↑ Sell  
    US Coffee C 145.23 ↑ Sell  
    Euro Stoxx 50 4,173.35 ↑ Sell  
    S&P 500 4,288.05 ↑ Sell  
    DAX 15,386.58 ↑ Sell  
    FTSE 100 7,608.08 ↑ Sell  
    Hang Seng 17,822.00 Buy  
    Small Cap 2000 1,785.10 ↑ Sell  
    IBEX 35 9,428.00 ↑ Sell  
    BASF 42.950 ↑ Sell  
    Bayer 45.45 ↑ Sell  
    Allianz 225.70 Sell  
    Adidas 166.62 ↑ Sell  
    Lufthansa 7.506 Neutral  
    Siemens AG 135.66 ↑ Sell  
    Deutsche Bank AG 10.450 ↑ Sell  
Mua/Bán 1 chỉ SJC
# So hôm qua # Chênh TG
SJC Eximbank6,830/ 6,880
(6,830/ 6,880) # 1,361
SJC HCM6,825/ 6,895
(0/ 0) # 1,447
SJC Hanoi6,825/ 6,897
(0/ 0) # 1,449
SJC Danang6,825/ 6,897
(0/ 0) # 1,449
SJC Nhatrang6,825/ 6,897
(0/ 0) # 1,449
SJC Cantho6,825/ 6,897
(0/ 0) # 1,449
Cập nhật 01-10-2023 16:19:49
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$1,848.82 -17.92 -0.96%
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Sản phẩm Vùng 1 Vùng 2
RON 95-V26.27026.790
RON 95-III25.74026.250
E5 RON 92-II24.19024.670
DO 0.05S23.59024.060
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Dầu hỏa 2-K23.81024.280
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WTI $89.87 +7.86 0.10%
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$ Tỷ giá Vietcombank
Ngoại tệMua vàoBán ra
USD24.090,0024.460,00
EUR25.089,2726.466,85
GBP28.963,5430.196,84
JPY158,64167,93
KRW15,6319,04
Cập nhật lúc 16:10:14 01/10/2023
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