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Marketmind: Knocking on CPI's door

Tuesday, January 10, 2023
Marketmind: Knocking on CPI's door © Reuters. FILE PHOTO: A security guard stands at the Shanghai Stock Exchange building at the Pudong financial district in Shanghai, China, as the country is hit by an outbreak of a new coronavirus, February 3, 2020. REUTERS/Aly Song
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By Stephen Culp

(Reuters) - A look at the day ahead in Asian markets from Stephen Culp.

Asian markets could be in for a bumpy ride on Tuesday after a rocky U.S. session for stocks, as a lack of market moving catalysts and remarks from a Fed official helped take the air out of earlier gains.

Risk appetite has bounced between U.S. economic resiliency and signs of cooling inflation and fears that the central bank will keep restrictive policy rates in place for longer than many might have hoped, potentially tipping the world's largest economy into recession.

As for the world's second-largest economy, Beijing's reversal of its zero-COVID policy resulted in tourists flowing into mainland China for the first time in years, sparking optimism of demand recovery, which in turn gave a boost to crude prices, and sent benchmark U.S. Treasury yields lower.

While China's reopening has resulted in spiking COVID infections, recent talks with Pfizer (NYSE:PFE) over securing a license to produce a generic version of its COVID drug has eased fears of another shutdown. Economists at many big banks are revising up their GDP growth forecasts for the second half of this year.

China's yuan on Monday touched a near-five-month high against the greenback.

Consumer prices data coming from Japan on Tuesday and from the United States and China later in the week will offer further evidence regarding the extent to which global inflation has peaked - or not.

Further signs of cooling inflation could raise the possibility of a pause in monetary policy.

On Monday, Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic provided assurances that it will be "appropriate and important" for the Fed to exercise caution as it calibrates its war on inflation.

Here's a look at various U.S. inflation indicators, and how far most of them have to fall before approaching the Fed's average annual 2% interest target:

Data from the Federal Reserve on Monday showed outstanding consumer credit grew in November by more than analysts expected, underscoring the strength of the American consumer and adding to the possibility of the fabled "soft landing."

Some developments that could move markets on Tuesday are as follows:

- Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell is due to participate in a "Central Bank Independence" panel in Stockholm, Sweden, which will include a Q&A session

- Japan releases its CPI report for December, which is expected to show core annual inflation of 3.8%, hotter than the previous month's 3.6% reading

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27-02-2024 09:42:13 (UTC+7)

EUR/USD

1.0852

+0.0005 (+0.05%)

Summary

Neutral

Moving Avg:

Buy (10)

Sell (2)

Indicators:

Buy (3)

Sell (4)

EUR/USD

1.0852

+0.0005 (+0.05%)

Summary

Neutral

Moving Avg:

Buy (10)

Sell (2)

Indicators:

Buy (3)

Sell (4)

GBP/USD

1.2678

-0.0004 (-0.04%)

Summary

↑ Sell

Moving Avg:

Buy (0)

Sell (12)

Indicators:

Buy (2)

Sell (7)

USD/JPY

150.51

-0.18 (-0.12%)

Summary

Neutral

Moving Avg:

Buy (5)

Sell (7)

Indicators:

Buy (6)

Sell (1)

AUD/USD

0.6528

-0.0012 (-0.18%)

Summary

↑ Sell

Moving Avg:

Buy (0)

Sell (12)

Indicators:

Buy (2)

Sell (6)

USD/CAD

1.3511

+0.0003 (+0.03%)

Summary

Neutral

Moving Avg:

Buy (10)

Sell (2)

Indicators:

Buy (3)

Sell (3)

EUR/JPY

163.32

-0.21 (-0.13%)

Summary

Neutral

Moving Avg:

Buy (2)

Sell (10)

Indicators:

Buy (3)

Sell (1)

EUR/CHF

0.9550

+0.0001 (+0.01%)

Summary

↑ Sell

Moving Avg:

Buy (0)

Sell (12)

Indicators:

Buy (3)

Sell (4)

Gold Futures

2,043.05

+4.15 (+0.20%)

Summary

↑ Buy

Moving Avg:

Buy (8)

Sell (4)

Indicators:

Buy (9)

Sell (1)

Silver Futures

22.767

+0.032 (+0.14%)

Summary

↑ Buy

Moving Avg:

Buy (8)

Sell (4)

Indicators:

Buy (6)

Sell (1)

Copper Futures

3.8420

+0.0055 (+0.14%)

Summary

↑ Buy

Moving Avg:

Buy (8)

Sell (4)

Indicators:

Buy (6)

Sell (2)

Crude Oil WTI Futures

77.54

-0.04 (-0.05%)

Summary

Buy

Moving Avg:

Buy (6)

Sell (6)

Indicators:

Buy (7)

Sell (1)

Brent Oil Futures

81.62

-0.08 (-0.10%)

Summary

Neutral

Moving Avg:

Buy (5)

Sell (7)

Indicators:

Buy (8)

Sell (1)

Natural Gas Futures

1.736

-0.021 (-1.20%)

Summary

↑ Sell

Moving Avg:

Buy (0)

Sell (12)

Indicators:

Buy (0)

Sell (7)

US Coffee C Futures

180.10

-0.20 (-0.11%)

Summary

↑ Buy

Moving Avg:

Buy (10)

Sell (2)

Indicators:

Buy (9)

Sell (0)

Euro Stoxx 50

4,864.15

-8.42 (-0.17%)

Summary

Neutral

Moving Avg:

Buy (5)

Sell (7)

Indicators:

Buy (7)

Sell (1)

S&P 500

5,069.53

-19.27 (-0.38%)

Summary

↑ Sell

Moving Avg:

Buy (0)

Sell (12)

Indicators:

Buy (0)

Sell (9)

DAX

17,423.23

+3.90 (+0.02%)

Summary

↑ Sell

Moving Avg:

Buy (0)

Sell (12)

Indicators:

Buy (1)

Sell (6)

FTSE 100

7,684.30

-21.98 (-0.29%)

Summary

Neutral

Moving Avg:

Buy (1)

Sell (11)

Indicators:

Buy (3)

Sell (2)

Hang Seng

16,466.00

-168.74 (-1.01%)

Summary

↑ Sell

Moving Avg:

Buy (0)

Sell (12)

Indicators:

Buy (1)

Sell (6)

US Small Cap 2000

2,029.05

+12.36 (+0.61%)

Summary

↑ Sell

Moving Avg:

Buy (4)

Sell (8)

Indicators:

Buy (0)

Sell (9)

IBEX 35

10,138.40

+7.80 (+0.08%)

Summary

Sell

Moving Avg:

Buy (6)

Sell (6)

Indicators:

Buy (1)

Sell (6)

BASF SE NA O.N.

46.330

-0.270 (-0.58%)

Summary

↑ Buy

Moving Avg:

Buy (8)

Sell (4)

Indicators:

Buy (8)

Sell (0)

Bayer AG NA

28.59

-0.23 (-0.80%)

Summary

↑ Buy

Moving Avg:

Buy (11)

Sell (1)

Indicators:

Buy (8)

Sell (1)

Allianz SE VNA O.N.

245.65

-0.85 (-0.34%)

Summary

Neutral

Moving Avg:

Buy (6)

Sell (6)

Indicators:

Buy (5)

Sell (1)

Adidas AG

188.20

-0.58 (-0.31%)

Summary

Neutral

Moving Avg:

Buy (6)

Sell (6)

Indicators:

Buy (3)

Sell (3)

Deutsche Lufthansa AG

7.237

-0.144 (-1.95%)

Summary

↑ Buy

Moving Avg:

Buy (9)

Sell (3)

Indicators:

Buy (6)

Sell (0)

Siemens AG Class N

174.90

-0.40 (-0.23%)

Summary

↑ Buy

Moving Avg:

Buy (9)

Sell (3)

Indicators:

Buy (8)

Sell (1)

Deutsche Bank AG

12.302

-0.088 (-0.71%)

Summary

↑ Buy

Moving Avg:

Buy (10)

Sell (2)

Indicators:

Buy (8)

Sell (0)

    EUR/USD 1.0852 Neutral  
    GBP/USD 1.2678 ↑ Sell  
    USD/JPY 150.51 Neutral  
    AUD/USD 0.6528 ↑ Sell  
    USD/CAD 1.3511 Neutral  
    EUR/JPY 163.32 Neutral  
    EUR/CHF 0.9550 ↑ Sell  
    Gold 2,043.05 ↑ Buy  
    Silver 22.767 ↑ Buy  
    Copper 3.8420 ↑ Buy  
    Crude Oil WTI 77.54 Buy  
    Brent Oil 81.62 Neutral  
    Natural Gas 1.736 ↑ Sell  
    US Coffee C 180.10 ↑ Buy  
    Euro Stoxx 50 4,864.15 Neutral  
    S&P 500 5,069.53 ↑ Sell  
    DAX 17,423.23 ↑ Sell  
    FTSE 100 7,684.30 Neutral  
    Hang Seng 16,466.00 ↑ Sell  
    Small Cap 2000 2,029.05 ↑ Sell  
    IBEX 35 10,138.40 Sell  
    BASF 46.330 ↑ Buy  
    Bayer 28.59 ↑ Buy  
    Allianz 245.65 Neutral  
    Adidas 188.20 Neutral  
    Lufthansa 7.237 ↑ Buy  
    Siemens AG 174.90 ↑ Buy  
    Deutsche Bank AG 12.302 ↑ Buy  
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