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Marketmind: If the yield cap fits..

Monday, January 16, 2023
Marketmind: If the yield cap fits.. © Reuters. FILE PHOTO: A man walks past Bank of Japan's headquarters in Tokyo, Japan, June 17, 2022. REUTERS/Kim Kyung-Hoon/File Photo/File Photo
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By Jamie McGeever

(Reuters) - A look at the day ahead in Asian markets from Jamie McGeever.

Fourth-quarter GDP growth tops a list of key Chinese indicators, while interest rate decisions from Indonesia and Malaysia will be pored over by investors. But the biggest event this week will be the Bank of Japan's monetary policy decision on Wednesday.

Trading volume across the region may be lighter than usual on Monday because U.S. markets are closed for Martin Luther King Day. The real market action will come later in the week.

While the BOJ is expected to leave its central 'yield curve control' targets at -0.10% for short-term rates and 0% for the 10-year bond yield, all eyes will be on whether policymakers make further adjustments to yield-curve control (YCC) bands following December's surprise tweak.

Graphic: Japan 10-year yield https://fingfx.thomsonreuters.com/gfx/mkt/gdpzqwkykvw/Japan10y.jpg

The BOJ stunned markets last month by effectively raising the cap on the 10-year yield to 0.50% from 0.25% and investors have gunned for it since - it hit 0.55% last week, forcing the BOJ to ramp up its already massive quantities of bond purchases.

The BOJ may also raise its inflation forecasts on Wednesday, ahead of December inflation data on Friday.

The yen has been on a tear recently. The BOJ stunned markets again in October by intervening in FX market buying yen for the first time since 1998 - three bouts of intervention in total have helped push the yen to a seven-month high of 127.50 per dollar, a far cry from October's low of 151.00.

China's yuan also has been surging against the beleaguered dollar on soaring optimism surrounding the country's reopening now that Beijing has ditched its zero-COVID policy. The yuan hit 6.70 per dollar on Friday, its strongest since early July.

Chinese house price data will be released on Monday, before a barrage of releases the following day - Q4 GDP, and December retail sales, industrial production and fixed investment. All are expected to be weaker than the previous prints but investors are hoping this marks the economic nadir.

Later in the week, Bank Indonesia is expected to raise interest rates by another 25 basis points to 5.75%. Economists at Goldman Sachs (NYSE:GS) reckon inflation probably peaked in September but remains too high for policymakers' liking, so they will hike twice more for a terminal rate of 6.25% by March.

Bank Negara Malaysia is expected to raise rates by a quarter point on Thursday, to 3.00%. Goldman predicts another two 25 bps increases for a peak rate of 3.50% by May, while Morgan Stanley (NYSE:MS)'s team reckons this will be the last hike of the cycle.

Elsewhere, there are no fewer than 11 speeches from Fed officials lined up this week, and a record number of world leaders, policy makers and top corporate chiefs will attend the World Economic Forum in Davos.

Three key developments that could provide more direction to markets on Monday:

- China house prices (December)

- Indonesia trade (December)

- India wholesale price inflation (December)

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04-03-2024 14:18:37 (UTC+7)

EUR/USD

1.0848

+0.0011 (+0.10%)

Summary

Sell

Moving Avg:

Buy (6)

Sell (6)

Indicators:

Buy (0)

Sell (7)

EUR/USD

1.0848

+0.0011 (+0.10%)

Summary

Sell

Moving Avg:

Buy (6)

Sell (6)

Indicators:

Buy (0)

Sell (7)

GBP/USD

1.2666

+0.0016 (+0.13%)

Summary

↑ Sell

Moving Avg:

Buy (5)

Sell (7)

Indicators:

Buy (0)

Sell (7)

USD/JPY

150.40

+0.28 (+0.19%)

Summary

↑ Buy

Moving Avg:

Buy (12)

Sell (0)

Indicators:

Buy (8)

Sell (0)

AUD/USD

0.6520

-0.0003 (-0.05%)

Summary

↑ Sell

Moving Avg:

Buy (2)

Sell (10)

Indicators:

Buy (1)

Sell (8)

USD/CAD

1.3565

+0.0008 (+0.06%)

Summary

↑ Buy

Moving Avg:

Buy (12)

Sell (0)

Indicators:

Buy (7)

Sell (0)

EUR/JPY

163.15

+0.54 (+0.33%)

Summary

↑ Buy

Moving Avg:

Buy (12)

Sell (0)

Indicators:

Buy (9)

Sell (0)

EUR/CHF

0.9582

0.0000 (0.00%)

Summary

↑ Buy

Moving Avg:

Buy (12)

Sell (0)

Indicators:

Buy (8)

Sell (0)

Gold Futures

2,093.40

-2.30 (-0.11%)

Summary

↑ Buy

Moving Avg:

Buy (12)

Sell (0)

Indicators:

Buy (8)

Sell (1)

Silver Futures

23.273

-0.091 (-0.39%)

Summary

↑ Sell

Moving Avg:

Buy (0)

Sell (12)

Indicators:

Buy (0)

Sell (8)

Copper Futures

3.8558

-0.0027 (-0.07%)

Summary

Sell

Moving Avg:

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Sell (7)

Indicators:

Buy (1)

Sell (5)

Crude Oil WTI Futures

79.83

-0.14 (-0.18%)

Summary

Buy

Moving Avg:

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Indicators:

Buy (8)

Sell (1)

Brent Oil Futures

83.52

-0.03 (-0.04%)

Summary

Buy

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Natural Gas Futures

1.891

+0.055 (+3.00%)

Summary

↑ Buy

Moving Avg:

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Sell (0)

Indicators:

Buy (9)

Sell (0)

US Coffee C Futures

184.13

-0.22 (-0.12%)

Summary

Neutral

Moving Avg:

Buy (7)

Sell (5)

Indicators:

Buy (3)

Sell (4)

Euro Stoxx 50

4,894.05

+16.28 (+0.33%)

Summary

Buy

Moving Avg:

Buy (8)

Sell (4)

Indicators:

Buy (5)

Sell (2)

S&P 500

5,137.08

+40.81 (+0.80%)

Summary

↑ Buy

Moving Avg:

Buy (9)

Sell (3)

Indicators:

Buy (6)

Sell (1)

DAX

17,735.00

-0.07 (0.00%)

Summary

↑ Sell

Moving Avg:

Buy (0)

Sell (12)

Indicators:

Buy (0)

Sell (6)

FTSE 100

7,682.50

+52.48 (+0.69%)

Summary

↑ Sell

Moving Avg:

Buy (4)

Sell (8)

Indicators:

Buy (0)

Sell (7)

Hang Seng

16,535.50

-53.94 (-0.33%)

Summary

Neutral

Moving Avg:

Buy (6)

Sell (6)

Indicators:

Buy (3)

Sell (3)

US Small Cap 2000

2,076.39

+21.55 (+1.05%)

Summary

↑ Buy

Moving Avg:

Buy (12)

Sell (0)

Indicators:

Buy (9)

Sell (0)

IBEX 35

10,064.70

+63.40 (+0.63%)

Summary

↑ Buy

Moving Avg:

Buy (11)

Sell (1)

Indicators:

Buy (7)

Sell (1)

BASF SE NA O.N.

47.985

+0.910 (+1.93%)

Summary

↑ Sell

Moving Avg:

Buy (5)

Sell (7)

Indicators:

Buy (0)

Sell (8)

Bayer AG NA

28.33

+0.24 (+0.85%)

Summary

↑ Sell

Moving Avg:

Buy (3)

Sell (9)

Indicators:

Buy (1)

Sell (8)

Allianz SE VNA O.N.

251.80

-2.05 (-0.81%)

Summary

Buy

Moving Avg:

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Sell (6)

Indicators:

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Sell (2)

Adidas AG

187.00

-0.12 (-0.06%)

Summary

↑ Buy

Moving Avg:

Buy (10)

Sell (2)

Indicators:

Buy (8)

Sell (0)

Deutsche Lufthansa AG

7.191

+0.003 (+0.04%)

Summary

Sell

Moving Avg:

Buy (5)

Sell (7)

Indicators:

Buy (2)

Sell (5)

Siemens AG Class N

181.28

-1.66 (-0.91%)

Summary

Sell

Moving Avg:

Buy (3)

Sell (9)

Indicators:

Buy (3)

Sell (4)

Deutsche Bank AG

12.566

+0.204 (+1.65%)

Summary

Neutral

Moving Avg:

Buy (10)

Sell (2)

Indicators:

Buy (0)

Sell (6)

    EUR/USD 1.0848 Sell  
    GBP/USD 1.2666 ↑ Sell  
    USD/JPY 150.40 ↑ Buy  
    AUD/USD 0.6520 ↑ Sell  
    USD/CAD 1.3565 ↑ Buy  
    EUR/JPY 163.15 ↑ Buy  
    EUR/CHF 0.9582 ↑ Buy  
    Gold 2,093.40 ↑ Buy  
    Silver 23.273 ↑ Sell  
    Copper 3.8558 Sell  
    Crude Oil WTI 79.83 Buy  
    Brent Oil 83.52 Buy  
    Natural Gas 1.891 ↑ Buy  
    US Coffee C 184.13 Neutral  
    Euro Stoxx 50 4,894.05 Buy  
    S&P 500 5,137.08 ↑ Buy  
    DAX 17,735.00 ↑ Sell  
    FTSE 100 7,682.50 ↑ Sell  
    Hang Seng 16,535.50 Neutral  
    Small Cap 2000 2,076.39 ↑ Buy  
    IBEX 35 10,064.70 ↑ Buy  
    BASF 47.985 ↑ Sell  
    Bayer 28.33 ↑ Sell  
    Allianz 251.80 Buy  
    Adidas 187.00 ↑ Buy  
    Lufthansa 7.191 Sell  
    Siemens AG 181.28 Sell  
    Deutsche Bank AG 12.566 Neutral  
Mua/Bán 1 chỉ SJC
# So hôm qua # Chênh TG
SJC Eximbank7,850/ 8,000
(50/ 50) # 1,761
SJC HCM7,870/ 8,070
(90/ 40) # 1,832
SJC Hanoi7,870/ 8,072
(90/ 40) # 1,834
SJC Danang7,870/ 8,072
(90/ 40) # 1,834
SJC Nhatrang7,870/ 8,072
(90/ 40) # 1,834
SJC Cantho7,870/ 8,072
(90/ 40) # 1,834
Cập nhật 04-03-2024 14:18:39
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$ Tỷ giá Vietcombank
Ngoại tệMua vàoBán ra
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GBP30.431,4131.726,40
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