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Marketmind: If the yield cap fits..

16 Tháng Giêng 2023
Marketmind: If the yield cap fits.. © Reuters. FILE PHOTO: A man walks past Bank of Japan's headquarters in Tokyo, Japan, June 17, 2022. REUTERS/Kim Kyung-Hoon/File Photo/File Photo
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By Jamie McGeever

(Reuters) - A look at the day ahead in Asian markets from Jamie McGeever.

Fourth-quarter GDP growth tops a list of key Chinese indicators, while interest rate decisions from Indonesia and Malaysia will be pored over by investors. But the biggest event this week will be the Bank of Japan's monetary policy decision on Wednesday.

Trading volume across the region may be lighter than usual on Monday because U.S. markets are closed for Martin Luther King Day. The real market action will come later in the week.

While the BOJ is expected to leave its central 'yield curve control' targets at -0.10% for short-term rates and 0% for the 10-year bond yield, all eyes will be on whether policymakers make further adjustments to yield-curve control (YCC) bands following December's surprise tweak.

Graphic: Japan 10-year yield https://fingfx.thomsonreuters.com/gfx/mkt/gdpzqwkykvw/Japan10y.jpg

The BOJ stunned markets last month by effectively raising the cap on the 10-year yield to 0.50% from 0.25% and investors have gunned for it since - it hit 0.55% last week, forcing the BOJ to ramp up its already massive quantities of bond purchases.

The BOJ may also raise its inflation forecasts on Wednesday, ahead of December inflation data on Friday.

The yen has been on a tear recently. The BOJ stunned markets again in October by intervening in FX market buying yen for the first time since 1998 - three bouts of intervention in total have helped push the yen to a seven-month high of 127.50 per dollar, a far cry from October's low of 151.00.

China's yuan also has been surging against the beleaguered dollar on soaring optimism surrounding the country's reopening now that Beijing has ditched its zero-COVID policy. The yuan hit 6.70 per dollar on Friday, its strongest since early July.

Chinese house price data will be released on Monday, before a barrage of releases the following day - Q4 GDP, and December retail sales, industrial production and fixed investment. All are expected to be weaker than the previous prints but investors are hoping this marks the economic nadir.

Later in the week, Bank Indonesia is expected to raise interest rates by another 25 basis points to 5.75%. Economists at Goldman Sachs (NYSE:GS) reckon inflation probably peaked in September but remains too high for policymakers' liking, so they will hike twice more for a terminal rate of 6.25% by March.

Bank Negara Malaysia is expected to raise rates by a quarter point on Thursday, to 3.00%. Goldman predicts another two 25 bps increases for a peak rate of 3.50% by May, while Morgan Stanley (NYSE:MS)'s team reckons this will be the last hike of the cycle.

Elsewhere, there are no fewer than 11 speeches from Fed officials lined up this week, and a record number of world leaders, policy makers and top corporate chiefs will attend the World Economic Forum in Davos.

Three key developments that could provide more direction to markets on Monday:

- China house prices (December)

- Indonesia trade (December)

- India wholesale price inflation (December)

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07-02-2023 07:57:42 (UTC+7)

EUR/USD

1.0735

+0.0005 (+0.05%)

Summary

↑ Buy

Moving Avg:

Buy (12)

Sell (0)

Indicators:

Buy (9)

Sell (0)

EUR/USD

1.0735

+0.0005 (+0.05%)

Summary

↑ Buy

Moving Avg:

Buy (12)

Sell (0)

Indicators:

Buy (9)

Sell (0)

GBP/USD

1.2037

+0.0021 (+0.17%)

Summary

↑ Buy

Moving Avg:

Buy (12)

Sell (0)

Indicators:

Buy (7)

Sell (1)

USD/JPY

132.51

-0.14 (-0.10%)

Summary

↑ Buy

Moving Avg:

Buy (9)

Sell (3)

Indicators:

Buy (8)

Sell (0)

AUD/USD

0.6895

+0.0014 (+0.21%)

Summary

↑ Buy

Moving Avg:

Buy (12)

Sell (0)

Indicators:

Buy (8)

Sell (0)

USD/CAD

1.3434

-0.0011 (-0.09%)

Summary

Sell

Moving Avg:

Buy (2)

Sell (10)

Indicators:

Buy (2)

Sell (3)

EUR/JPY

142.26

-0.07 (-0.05%)

Summary

↑ Buy

Moving Avg:

Buy (11)

Sell (1)

Indicators:

Buy (8)

Sell (1)

EUR/CHF

0.9957

-0.0003 (-0.03%)

Summary

↑ Buy

Moving Avg:

Buy (12)

Sell (0)

Indicators:

Buy (9)

Sell (2)

Gold Futures

1,882.10

+2.60 (+0.14%)

Summary

↑ Sell

Moving Avg:

Buy (5)

Sell (7)

Indicators:

Buy (1)

Sell (8)

Silver Futures

22.297

+0.060 (+0.27%)

Summary

↑ Sell

Moving Avg:

Buy (2)

Sell (10)

Indicators:

Buy (1)

Sell (7)

Copper Futures

4.0408

+0.0038 (+0.09%)

Summary

↑ Sell

Moving Avg:

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Sell (8)

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Crude Oil WTI Futures

74.46

+0.35 (+0.47%)

Summary

↑ Buy

Moving Avg:

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Sell (2)

Indicators:

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Brent Oil Futures

81.40

+1.46 (+1.83%)

Summary

↑ Buy

Moving Avg:

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Buy (7)

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Natural Gas Futures

2.495

+0.038 (+1.55%)

Summary

↑ Sell

Moving Avg:

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Sell (10)

Indicators:

Buy (0)

Sell (8)

US Coffee C Futures

176.35

+3.55 (+2.05%)

Summary

Neutral

Moving Avg:

Buy (8)

Sell (4)

Indicators:

Buy (3)

Sell (3)

Euro Stoxx 50

4,205.45

-52.53 (-1.23%)

Summary

Neutral

Moving Avg:

Buy (8)

Sell (4)

Indicators:

Buy (3)

Sell (5)

S&P 500

4,111.08

-25.40 (-0.61%)

Summary

↑ Buy

Moving Avg:

Buy (11)

Sell (1)

Indicators:

Buy (8)

Sell (1)

DAX

15,345.91

-130.52 (-0.84%)

Summary

Neutral

Moving Avg:

Buy (6)

Sell (6)

Indicators:

Buy (1)

Sell (5)

FTSE 100

7,836.71

-65.09 (-0.82%)

Summary

Neutral

Moving Avg:

Buy (10)

Sell (2)

Indicators:

Buy (4)

Sell (4)

Hang Seng

21,222.16

-438.31 (-2.02%)

Summary

↑ Buy

Moving Avg:

Buy (12)

Sell (0)

Indicators:

Buy (6)

Sell (0)

US Small Cap 2000

1,954.80

-30.73 (-1.55%)

Summary

↑ Sell

Moving Avg:

Buy (1)

Sell (11)

Indicators:

Buy (2)

Sell (5)

IBEX 35

9,159.20

-66.40 (-0.72%)

Summary

↑ Sell

Moving Avg:

Buy (2)

Sell (10)

Indicators:

Buy (1)

Sell (6)

BASF SE NA O.N.

52.950

-1.090 (-2.02%)

Summary

↑ Sell

Moving Avg:

Buy (0)

Sell (12)

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Buy (0)

Sell (9)

Bayer AG NA

58.19

+1.51 (+2.66%)

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↑ Sell

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Allianz SE VNA O.N.

219.30

-1.45 (-0.66%)

Summary

Neutral

Moving Avg:

Buy (6)

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Indicators:

Buy (3)

Sell (2)

Adidas AG

155.36

-5.70 (-3.54%)

Summary

↑ Sell

Moving Avg:

Buy (5)

Sell (7)

Indicators:

Buy (2)

Sell (7)

Deutsche Lufthansa AG

9.803

-0.099 (-1.00%)

Summary

↑ Buy

Moving Avg:

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Sell (0)

Indicators:

Buy (5)

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Siemens AG Class N

142.96

-2.06 (-1.42%)

Summary

Sell

Moving Avg:

Buy (6)

Sell (6)

Indicators:

Buy (3)

Sell (6)

Deutsche Bank AG

11.356

-0.174 (-1.51%)

Summary

↑ Buy

Moving Avg:

Buy (12)

Sell (0)

Indicators:

Buy (8)

Sell (0)

    EUR/USD 1.0735 ↑ Buy  
    GBP/USD 1.2037 ↑ Buy  
    USD/JPY 132.51 ↑ Buy  
    AUD/USD 0.6895 ↑ Buy  
    USD/CAD 1.3434 Sell  
    EUR/JPY 142.26 ↑ Buy  
    EUR/CHF 0.9957 ↑ Buy  
    Gold 1,882.10 ↑ Sell  
    Silver 22.297 ↑ Sell  
    Copper 4.0408 ↑ Sell  
    Crude Oil WTI 74.46 ↑ Buy  
    Brent Oil 81.40 ↑ Buy  
    Natural Gas 2.495 ↑ Sell  
    US Coffee C 176.35 Neutral  
    Euro Stoxx 50 4,205.45 Neutral  
    S&P 500 4,111.08 ↑ Buy  
    DAX 15,345.91 Neutral  
    FTSE 100 7,836.71 Neutral  
    Hang Seng 21,222.16 ↑ Buy  
    Small Cap 2000 1,954.80 ↑ Sell  
    IBEX 35 9,159.20 ↑ Sell  
    BASF 52.950 ↑ Sell  
    Bayer 58.19 ↑ Sell  
    Allianz 219.30 Neutral  
    Adidas 155.36 ↑ Sell  
    Lufthansa 9.803 ↑ Buy  
    Siemens AG 142.96 Sell  
    Deutsche Bank AG 11.356 ↑ Buy  
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# So hôm qua # Chênh TG
SJC Eximbank6,640/ 6,700
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Cập nhật 07-02-2023 07:57:44
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RON 95-V24.00024.480
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Brent $81.21 0 0%
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Ngoại tệMua vàoBán ra
USD23.270,0023.640,00
EUR24.669,2126.050,56
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JPY172,56182,68
KRW16,3019,86
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