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Marketmind: Gloomy enough?

Thứ Bảy, 26 tháng 11, 2022
Marketmind: Gloomy enough? © Reuters. FILE PHOTO: Traders work on the floor of the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE) in New York City, U.S., November 22, 2022. REUTERS/Brendan McDermid/File Photo
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A look at the day ahead in U.S. and global markets from Mike Dolan.

As Americans digest turkey feasts and head to the shops, they may also give thanks that the economy looks better than feared - with questionable implications for investors seeking interest rate relief.

Recession across the developed world in 2023 appears to be consensus thinking among economists parsing the year ahead - and with it, they assume, disinflation and peak interest rates. Asset managers tout a return to beaten-down bonds as a result - even if there's far less enthusiasm for equity in that environment.

And 10-year Treasury yields fell briefly to their lowest in over a month on Friday.

But the view hinges on economies slowing to a point that drags inflation back down toward 2% targets. So far at least, most incoming economic numbers are less gloomy than forecast.

Judging by Citi's economic surprise indices, aggregate U.S. surprises remain positive and have been since September. Likewise equivalents for the euro zone, China and the world at large - with UK surprises the most positive since April.

That doesn't mean economies aren't slowing or even in recession - just that the data to date means market forecasting, and perhaps pricing, has been too negative on balance.

Of course, that's all in the rear view mirror. More forward-looking signals from markets are relentlessly dark - with the 2-10 year yield curve inversion in the United States at its most negative in 22 years and Germany's curve on Friday reaching its most inverted in 30 years.

As Thanksgiving typically sounds the starting bell for the following year's investment decisions as well as the holiday sales season, retail readouts and related discounting will be crucial for central banks deciding when they can take their feet off the brakes next year.

The backdrop for retailers wasn't great.

Workers at Amazon (NASDAQ:AMZN) sites across the globe, including in the United States, Germany and France, were expected to go on strike on Black Friday. Production of Apple (NASDAQ:AAPL) iPhones, meantime, could slump by at least 30% at Foxconn's factory in Zhengzhou after worker unrest related to COVID curbs disrupted operations.

Far from tightening policy, the economic disruption in China from COVID lockdowns and a property sector bust forced its central bank on Friday to cut the amount of cash that banks must hold as reserves for the second time this year, releasing about 500 billion yuan ($69.8 billion) in long-term liquidity.

The People's Bank of China said it would cut the reserve requirement ratio for banks by 25 basis points. Earlier it said it would offer cheap loans to financial firms for buying the beaten down bonds of property developers.

Shanghai shares bucked an otherwise downbeat session for Asia bourses on Friday, with the yuan slightly weaker against a broadly stable dollar. European stocks and Wall Street futures were mostly flat. Oil prices were a touch higher.

Key developments that may provide direction to U.S. markets later on Friday:

* Black Friday retail readout

GRAPHIC: Gloom overdone? - https://fingfx.thomsonreuters.com/gfx/mkt/akveqzxwmvr/One.PNG

GRAPHIC: Black Friday forecasts - https://graphics.reuters.com/GLOBAL-MARKET/THEMES/gkplwgxkavb/chart.png

GRAPHIC: Global bond fund flows in the week ended Nov 23 - https://fingfx.thomsonreuters.com/gfx/mkt/dwpkdrlmyvm/Global%20bond%20fund%20flows%20in%20the%20week%20ended%20Nov%2023.jpg

GRAPHIC: Unrest at Foxconn's Zhengzhou plant in China - https://graphics.reuters.com/FOXCONN-CHINA/dwvkdrlnypm/graphic.jpg

(By Mike Dolan, editing by Emelia Sithole-Matarise mike.dolan@thomsonreuters.com. Twitter: @reutersMikeD)

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01-05-2024 10:45:17 (UTC+7)

EUR/USD

1.0658

-0.0008 (-0.07%)

Summary

↑ Sell

Moving Avg:

Buy (0)

Sell (12)

Indicators:

Buy (2)

Sell (3)

EUR/USD

1.0658

-0.0008 (-0.07%)

Summary

↑ Sell

Moving Avg:

Buy (0)

Sell (12)

Indicators:

Buy (2)

Sell (3)

GBP/USD

1.2475

-0.0015 (-0.12%)

Summary

↑ Sell

Moving Avg:

Buy (0)

Sell (12)

Indicators:

Buy (0)

Sell (10)

USD/JPY

157.91

+0.12 (+0.07%)

Summary

↑ Buy

Moving Avg:

Buy (12)

Sell (0)

Indicators:

Buy (9)

Sell (0)

AUD/USD

0.6469

-0.0003 (-0.05%)

Summary

Neutral

Moving Avg:

Buy (10)

Sell (2)

Indicators:

Buy (2)

Sell (3)

USD/CAD

1.3780

+0.0003 (+0.03%)

Summary

↑ Buy

Moving Avg:

Buy (12)

Sell (0)

Indicators:

Buy (7)

Sell (0)

EUR/JPY

168.32

+0.10 (+0.06%)

Summary

↑ Buy

Moving Avg:

Buy (12)

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Indicators:

Buy (9)

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EUR/CHF

0.9808

+0.0001 (+0.01%)

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Neutral

Moving Avg:

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Buy (3)

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Gold Futures

2,295.80

-7.10 (-0.31%)

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Moving Avg:

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Silver Futures

26.677

+0.023 (+0.09%)

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Moving Avg:

Buy (2)

Sell (10)

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4.5305

-0.0105 (-0.23%)

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Moving Avg:

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Crude Oil WTI Futures

81.14

-0.79 (-0.96%)

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Brent Oil Futures

85.62

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1.946

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Sell (5)

US Coffee C Futures

213.73

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Moving Avg:

Buy (3)

Sell (9)

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Buy (0)

Sell (10)

Euro Stoxx 50

4,920.55

-60.54 (-1.22%)

Summary

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Moving Avg:

Buy (4)

Sell (8)

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Buy (1)

Sell (7)

S&P 500

5,035.69

-80.48 (-1.57%)

Summary

↑ Sell

Moving Avg:

Buy (0)

Sell (12)

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Sell (7)

DAX

17,921.95

-196.37 (-1.08%)

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↑ Sell

Moving Avg:

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Sell (12)

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Buy (1)

Sell (6)

FTSE 100

8,144.13

-2.90 (-0.04%)

Summary

Sell

Moving Avg:

Buy (5)

Sell (7)

Indicators:

Buy (2)

Sell (4)

Hang Seng

17,763.03

+16.12 (+0.09%)

Summary

↑ Sell

Moving Avg:

Buy (0)

Sell (12)

Indicators:

Buy (1)

Sell (6)

US Small Cap 2000

1,973.05

-42.98 (-2.13%)

Summary

↑ Sell

Moving Avg:

Buy (0)

Sell (12)

Indicators:

Buy (0)

Sell (7)

IBEX 35

10,854.40

-246.40 (-2.22%)

Summary

Neutral

Moving Avg:

Buy (6)

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Buy (3)

Sell (3)

BASF SE NA O.N.

49.155

+0.100 (+0.20%)

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Sell (7)

Bayer AG NA

27.35

-0.24 (-0.87%)

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Allianz SE VNA O.N.

266.60

+0.30 (+0.11%)

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Sell (5)

Adidas AG

226.40

-5.90 (-2.54%)

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↑ Sell

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Deutsche Lufthansa AG

6.714

-0.028 (-0.42%)

Summary

Neutral

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Siemens AG Class N

175.90

-1.74 (-0.98%)

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Deutsche Bank AG

15.010

-0.094 (-0.62%)

Summary

Neutral

Moving Avg:

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    EUR/USD 1.0658 ↑ Sell  
    GBP/USD 1.2475 ↑ Sell  
    USD/JPY 157.91 ↑ Buy  
    AUD/USD 0.6469 Neutral  
    USD/CAD 1.3780 ↑ Buy  
    EUR/JPY 168.32 ↑ Buy  
    EUR/CHF 0.9808 Neutral  
    Gold 2,295.80 ↑ Sell  
    Silver 26.677 ↑ Sell  
    Copper 4.5305 ↑ Buy  
    Crude Oil WTI 81.14 ↑ Sell  
    Brent Oil 85.62 ↑ Sell  
    Natural Gas 1.946 ↑ Sell  
    US Coffee C 213.73 ↑ Sell  
    Euro Stoxx 50 4,920.55 ↑ Sell  
    S&P 500 5,035.69 ↑ Sell  
    DAX 17,921.95 ↑ Sell  
    FTSE 100 8,144.13 Sell  
    Hang Seng 17,763.03 ↑ Sell  
    Small Cap 2000 1,973.05 ↑ Sell  
    IBEX 35 10,854.40 Neutral  
    BASF 49.155 ↑ Sell  
    Bayer 27.35 ↑ Sell  
    Allianz 266.60 ↑ Sell  
    Adidas 226.40 ↑ Sell  
    Lufthansa 6.714 Neutral  
    Siemens AG 175.90 ↑ Sell  
    Deutsche Bank AG 15.010 Neutral  
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