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Marketmind: Fed meets as dogs of war growl

(Reuters) - A look at the day ahead in markets from Alun John. Investors were finally starting to turn all their attention to Wednesday's interest rate announcement from the...
Marketmind: Fed meets as dogs of war growl © Reuters. FILE PHOTO: The U.S. Federal Reserve building is pictured in Washington, March 18, 2008. REUTERS/Jason Reed/File Photo
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(Reuters) - A look at the day ahead in markets from Alun John.

Investors were finally starting to turn all their attention to Wednesday's interest rate announcement from the Federal Reserve, when geopolitics popped up once again.

President Vladimir Putin on Wednesday ordered Russia's first mobilisation since World War Two, warning the West that if it continued what he called its "nuclear blackmail", Moscow would respond with the might of all its vast arsenal.

The news sent investors rushing to safe havens. The dollar index hit a new 20-year top, rising against the euro and pound, while European stocks fell to a fresh 11-week low at the open.

Defence stocks rose, rarely the cheeriest sign from a human perspective.

Today's Fed meeting is nevertheless the main focus for markets around the world.

Markets are pricing in around an 85% chance of a 75-basis-point increase in U.S. interest rates, according to CME's Fedwatch tool, but haven't given up on the Fed "going Swedish" and surprising with a full percentage point hike.

Sweden's central bank raised rates by a bigger-than-expected 100 basis points on Tuesday.

As well as the rate change, investors will also be examining the Fed's "Dot Plot" to see where policymakers expect rates to peak.

The Swiss National Bank and the Bank of England - holding a meeting postponed from last week due the death of Queen Elizabeth - are also expected to deliver hefty interest rate hikes this week.

Some investors are starting to worry about the collective impact of global central banks tightening in unison - barring the Bank of Japan, which meets on Thursday but with no change to its ultra-loose policy expected.

Key developments that should provide more direction to markets on Wednesday:

US Aug existing home sales

Federal Reserve rate decision and news conference

Brazil central bank rate decision (Graphic: Central banks ramp up fight against inflation, https://graphics.reuters.com/GLOBAL-CENTRALBANKS/gkplgnylkvb/chart.png)

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29-09-2022 06:11:00 (UTC+7)

EUR/USD

0.9722

-0.0011 (-0.12%)

Summary

Neutral

Moving Avg:

Buy (3)

Sell (9)

Indicators:

Buy (6)

Sell (0)

EUR/USD

0.9722

-0.0011 (-0.12%)

Summary

Neutral

Moving Avg:

Buy (3)

Sell (9)

Indicators:

Buy (6)

Sell (0)

GBP/USD

1.0858

-0.0030 (-0.28%)

Summary

↑ Sell

Moving Avg:

Buy (0)

Sell (12)

Indicators:

Buy (0)

Sell (9)

USD/JPY

144.27

+0.12 (+0.08%)

Summary

↑ Buy

Moving Avg:

Buy (12)

Sell (0)

Indicators:

Buy (9)

Sell (0)

AUD/USD

0.6513

-0.0009 (-0.14%)

Summary

↑ Buy

Moving Avg:

Buy (8)

Sell (4)

Indicators:

Buy (6)

Sell (0)

USD/CAD

1.3618

+0.0013 (+0.09%)

Summary

Neutral

Moving Avg:

Buy (7)

Sell (5)

Indicators:

Buy (0)

Sell (10)

EUR/JPY

140.28

-0.05 (-0.04%)

Summary

↑ Buy

Moving Avg:

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Sell (0)

Indicators:

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Sell (0)

EUR/CHF

0.9498

-0.0003 (-0.04%)

Summary

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Gold Futures

1,666.30

-3.70 (-0.22%)

Summary

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Silver Futures

18.863

-0.017 (-0.09%)

Summary

Buy

Moving Avg:

Buy (6)

Sell (6)

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Sell (3)

Copper Futures

3.3785

-0.0030 (-0.09%)

Summary

Buy

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Crude Oil WTI Futures

81.75

-0.40 (-0.49%)

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Brent Oil Futures

87.98

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6.995

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US Coffee C Futures

227.80

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Euro Stoxx 50

3,335.30

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Neutral

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S&P 500

3,719.04

+71.75 (+1.97%)

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DAX

12,183.28

+43.60 (+0.36%)

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FTSE 100

7,005.39

+20.80 (+0.30%)

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Neutral

Moving Avg:

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Indicators:

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Sell (6)

Hang Seng

17,250.88

-609.43 (-3.41%)

Summary

Buy

Moving Avg:

Buy (8)

Sell (4)

Indicators:

Buy (5)

Sell (2)

US Small Cap 2000

1,725.13

+62.62 (+3.77%)

Summary

↑ Buy

Moving Avg:

Buy (12)

Sell (0)

Indicators:

Buy (4)

Sell (3)

IBEX 35

7,442.20

-3.50 (-0.05%)

Summary

Neutral

Moving Avg:

Buy (12)

Sell (0)

Indicators:

Buy (4)

Sell (5)

BASF SE NA O.N.

39.415

-0.080 (-0.20%)

Summary

↑ Buy

Moving Avg:

Buy (12)

Sell (0)

Indicators:

Buy (10)

Sell (0)

Bayer AG NA

48.19

-0.07 (-0.13%)

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Neutral

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Allianz SE VNA O.N.

160.72

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Adidas AG

130.24

+2.94 (+2.31%)

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↑ Buy

Moving Avg:

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Sell (1)

Deutsche Lufthansa AG

5.772

-0.024 (-0.41%)

Summary

↑ Buy

Moving Avg:

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Siemens AG Class N

99.46

+1.54 (+1.57%)

Summary

↑ Buy

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Deutsche Bank AG

7.854

-0.274 (-3.37%)

Summary

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Moving Avg:

Buy (3)

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Indicators:

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Sell (7)

    EUR/USD 0.9722 Neutral  
    GBP/USD 1.0858 ↑ Sell  
    USD/JPY 144.27 ↑ Buy  
    AUD/USD 0.6513 ↑ Buy  
    USD/CAD 1.3618 Neutral  
    EUR/JPY 140.28 ↑ Buy  
    EUR/CHF 0.9498 ↑ Sell  
    Gold 1,666.30 Buy  
    Silver 18.863 Buy  
    Copper 3.3785 Buy  
    Crude Oil WTI 81.75 ↑ Sell  
    Brent Oil 87.98 ↑ Buy  
    Natural Gas 6.995 ↑ Sell  
    US Coffee C 227.80 ↑ Sell  
    Euro Stoxx 50 3,335.30 Neutral  
    S&P 500 3,719.04 ↑ Sell  
    DAX 12,183.28 Neutral  
    FTSE 100 7,005.39 Neutral  
    Hang Seng 17,250.88 Buy  
    Small Cap 2000 1,725.13 ↑ Buy  
    IBEX 35 7,442.20 Neutral  
    BASF 39.415 ↑ Buy  
    Bayer 48.19 Neutral  
    Allianz 160.72 ↑ Buy  
    Adidas 130.24 ↑ Buy  
    Lufthansa 5.772 ↑ Buy  
    Siemens AG 99.46 ↑ Buy  
    Deutsche Bank AG 7.854 ↑ Sell  
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