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Marketmind: Don't doubt the dollar

21 Tháng Mười Một 2022
Marketmind: Don't doubt the dollar © Reuters. A screen displays blank prices on a stock quotation board outside a brokerage in Tokyo, Japan October 1, 2020. Picture taken with a slow shutter speed. REUTERS/Issei Kato/File Photo
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By Jamie McGeever

(Reuters) - A look at the day ahead in Asian markets from Jamie McGeever.

Reports of the dollar's decline may have been greatly exaggerated, and if that turns out to be the case, it's bad news for Asia.

World stocks have rebounded strongly, bond yields and the dollar have fallen, and financial conditions eased significantly over the last month as investors bet that the Fed is preparing the ground for the much-vaunted 'pivot'.

The MSCI World Index is up 15% from its Oct. 13 low, while the MSCI Asia ex-Japan index is up 15% in the last four weeks and on course for its best month since May, 2009.

The big banks are starting to publish their 2023 outlooks, and FX analysts at HSBC and Morgan Stanley (NYSE:MS) are among those who reckon that the dollar is peaking and will weaken next year.

But recent rhetoric from Fed officials has been flat out hawkish - even from former 'doves' like San Francisco Fed President Mary Daly - and it would not be a surprise if the dollar were to resume its 2022 rally into the year end.

This deepens the problems that Asian markets and policymakers have been facing all year - historically low exchange rates, FX market intervention, rising inflationary pressures, and raising domestic interest rates into weak growth.

If the Fed is not as close to ending its hiking cycle as previously thought, most Asian central banks won't be either. Asia's powerhouses Japan and China are loosening policy, of course, and their currencies and FX reserves are taking a hit.

This is the broad context in which the Bank of Korea meets later this week. All but one of the 25 forecasts in a Reuters poll is for a 25 basis points hike to 3.25%.

BOK policymakers and others in the region will take comfort from the fall in global oil and commodities prices. But if Fed hawks and dollar bulls set the market tone, they may have to tighten more than they had envisaged.

Emerging market FX rates https://fingfx.thomsonreuters.com/gfx/mkt/gkvlwgdrwpb/EMFX.jpg

Three key developments that could provide more direction to markets on Monday:

- Fed's Daly speaks

- U.S. Treasury auctions 2-year, 5-year notes

- Germany PPI inflation (October)

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EUR/USD

1.0495

-0.0010 (-0.10%)

Summary

↑ Sell

Moving Avg:

Buy (0)

Sell (12)

Indicators:

Buy (2)

Sell (7)

EUR/USD

1.0495

-0.0010 (-0.10%)

Summary

↑ Sell

Moving Avg:

Buy (0)

Sell (12)

Indicators:

Buy (2)

Sell (7)

GBP/USD

1.2168

-0.0031 (-0.25%)

Summary

↑ Sell

Moving Avg:

Buy (2)

Sell (10)

Indicators:

Buy (2)

Sell (8)

USD/JPY

136.85

+0.24 (+0.18%)

Summary

↑ Sell

Moving Avg:

Buy (1)

Sell (11)

Indicators:

Buy (0)

Sell (6)

AUD/USD

0.6725

+0.0004 (+0.06%)

Summary

↑ Buy

Moving Avg:

Buy (12)

Sell (0)

Indicators:

Buy (7)

Sell (0)

USD/CAD

1.3657

+0.0006 (+0.04%)

Summary

↑ Sell

Moving Avg:

Buy (2)

Sell (10)

Indicators:

Buy (2)

Sell (7)

EUR/JPY

143.62

+0.12 (+0.08%)

Summary

↑ Sell

Moving Avg:

Buy (0)

Sell (12)

Indicators:

Buy (0)

Sell (8)

EUR/CHF

0.9884

+0.0003 (+0.03%)

Summary

↑ Sell

Moving Avg:

Buy (0)

Sell (12)

Indicators:

Buy (0)

Sell (8)

Gold Futures

1,795.95

-2.05 (-0.11%)

Summary

↑ Buy

Moving Avg:

Buy (12)

Sell (0)

Indicators:

Buy (9)

Sell (0)

Silver Futures

22.907

-0.015 (-0.07%)

Summary

↑ Buy

Moving Avg:

Buy (10)

Sell (2)

Indicators:

Buy (8)

Sell (0)

Copper Futures

3.8693

+0.0088 (+0.23%)

Summary

↑ Buy

Moving Avg:

Buy (12)

Sell (0)

Indicators:

Buy (8)

Sell (0)

Crude Oil WTI Futures

72.69

+0.68 (+0.94%)

Summary

↑ Sell

Moving Avg:

Buy (0)

Sell (12)

Indicators:

Buy (1)

Sell (9)

Brent Oil Futures

77.75

+0.58 (+0.75%)

Summary

↑ Sell

Moving Avg:

Buy (0)

Sell (12)

Indicators:

Buy (0)

Sell (8)

Natural Gas Futures

5.825

+0.102 (+1.78%)

Summary

↑ Buy

Moving Avg:

Buy (10)

Sell (2)

Indicators:

Buy (9)

Sell (1)

US Coffee C Futures

161.35

+1.35 (+0.84%)

Summary

Sell

Moving Avg:

Buy (6)

Sell (6)

Indicators:

Buy (0)

Sell (6)

Euro Stoxx 50

3,921.25

+0.35 (+0.01%)

Summary

↑ Sell

Moving Avg:

Buy (0)

Sell (12)

Indicators:

Buy (0)

Sell (8)

S&P 500

3,933.92

-7.34 (-0.19%)

Summary

↑ Buy

Moving Avg:

Buy (9)

Sell (3)

Indicators:

Buy (9)

Sell (1)

DAX

14,252.55

-8.64 (-0.06%)

Summary

↑ Sell

Moving Avg:

Buy (0)

Sell (12)

Indicators:

Buy (0)

Sell (7)

FTSE 100

7,486.10

-3.09 (-0.04%)

Summary

↑ Sell

Moving Avg:

Buy (1)

Sell (11)

Indicators:

Buy (0)

Sell (7)

Hang Seng

19,450.23

+635.41 (+3.38%)

Summary

Neutral

Moving Avg:

Buy (9)

Sell (3)

Indicators:

Buy (1)

Sell (5)

US Small Cap 2000

1,806.90

-5.67 (-0.31%)

Summary

↑ Buy

Moving Avg:

Buy (12)

Sell (0)

Indicators:

Buy (5)

Sell (1)

IBEX 35

8,250.58

-39.92 (-0.48%)

Summary

↑ Sell

Moving Avg:

Buy (0)

Sell (12)

Indicators:

Buy (0)

Sell (7)

BASF SE NA O.N.

47.28

-0.145 (-0.31%)

Summary

↑ Sell

Moving Avg:

Buy (1)

Sell (11)

Indicators:

Buy (0)

Sell (11)

Bayer AG NA

52.58

-0.22 (-0.42%)

Summary

↑ Buy

Moving Avg:

Buy (7)

Sell (5)

Indicators:

Buy (6)

Sell (1)

Allianz SE VNA O.N.

203.98

+0.33 (+0.16%)

Summary

↑ Sell

Moving Avg:

Buy (0)

Sell (12)

Indicators:

Buy (0)

Sell (7)

Adidas AG

115.88

-1.68 (-1.43%)

Summary

↑ Sell

Moving Avg:

Buy (2)

Sell (10)

Indicators:

Buy (0)

Sell (10)

Deutsche Lufthansa AG

7.688

+0.049 (+0.64%)

Summary

↑ Buy

Moving Avg:

Buy (7)

Sell (5)

Indicators:

Buy (7)

Sell (1)

Siemens AG Class N

133.15

+0.25 (+0.19%)

Summary

↑ Buy

Moving Avg:

Buy (7)

Sell (5)

Indicators:

Buy (6)

Sell (3)

Deutsche Bank AG

10.005

+0.039 (+0.39%)

Summary

↑ Buy

Moving Avg:

Buy (12)

Sell (0)

Indicators:

Buy (8)

Sell (0)

    EUR/USD 1.0495 ↑ Sell  
    GBP/USD 1.2168 ↑ Sell  
    USD/JPY 136.85 ↑ Sell  
    AUD/USD 0.6725 ↑ Buy  
    USD/CAD 1.3657 ↑ Sell  
    EUR/JPY 143.62 ↑ Sell  
    EUR/CHF 0.9884 ↑ Sell  
    Gold 1,795.95 ↑ Buy  
    Silver 22.907 ↑ Buy  
    Copper 3.8693 ↑ Buy  
    Crude Oil WTI 72.69 ↑ Sell  
    Brent Oil 77.75 ↑ Sell  
    Natural Gas 5.825 ↑ Buy  
    US Coffee C 161.35 Sell  
    Euro Stoxx 50 3,921.25 ↑ Sell  
    S&P 500 3,933.92 ↑ Buy  
    DAX 14,252.55 ↑ Sell  
    FTSE 100 7,486.10 ↑ Sell  
    Hang Seng 19,450.23 Neutral  
    Small Cap 2000 1,806.90 ↑ Buy  
    IBEX 35 8,250.58 ↑ Sell  
    BASF 47.28 ↑ Sell  
    Bayer 52.58 ↑ Buy  
    Allianz 203.98 ↑ Sell  
    Adidas 115.88 ↑ Sell  
    Lufthansa 7.688 ↑ Buy  
    Siemens AG 133.15 ↑ Buy  
    Deutsche Bank AG 10.005 ↑ Buy  
Mua/Bán 1 chỉ SJC
# So hôm qua # Chênh TG
SJC Eximbank6,650/ 6,720
(60/ 60) # 1,589
SJC HCM6,635/ 6,715
(25/ 25) # 1,584
SJC Hanoi6,635/ 6,717
(25/ 25) # 1,586
SJC Danang6,635/ 6,717
(25/ 25) # 1,586
SJC Nhatrang6,635/ 6,717
(25/ 25) # 1,586
SJC Cantho6,635/ 6,717
(25/ 25) # 1,586
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Ngoại tệMua vàoBán ra
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