net_left Kdata Phương Thức Thanh Toán

Market volatility, balance sheet surprises raise risk of bumpy Fed pivot

Thứ Bảy, 30 tháng 4, 2022

By Howard Schneider

(Reuters) - The Federal Reserve is expected to approve plans next week to reduce a nearly $9 trillion balance sheet that ballooned as part of its efforts to fight the pandemic recession, in a process U.S. central bank officials expect to run without a hitch.

The past week may point to a bumpier ride ahead, with analysts noting an unexpected, nearly $500 billion shift in the Fed's balance sheet driven by factors beyond its control and volatility in stock and bond markets as signs the central bank's pivot to tighter monetary policy may not run so smoothly.

Yields on the government bonds most sensitive to expectations for how the Fed may cull its balance sheet have swung wildly in the past week, and measures of fixed-income market volatility are near their highest since the onset two years ago of the coronavirus pandemic, which set the central bank on its bond-buying spree in the first place.

In particular, a nearly 9% drop in the S&P 500 index over the past month may show a coming hit to household wealth that quickly translates into lower consumer spending, said Steven Blitz, chief U.S. economist at TS Lombard. He noted that changes in asset prices are a key and perhaps increasingly important way monetary policy can influence economic activity and inflation.

"The tie between consumer spending and equity market performance has grown tighter over the years," Blitz said, as more households invest and holdings increase among the age groups most likely to buy higher-priced durable goods.

If markets continue to weaken, consumers will "sharply contract spending by the end of this year, possibly sooner," he said. "This economy needs a 'buyers strike' to flip into recession, and weak enough equities could stress household balance sheets enough to set one off."

Graphic: Unemployed to job openings - https://graphics.reuters.com/USA-FED/JOBS/egvbkmeoepq/chart.png

The Fed wants demand to weaken, but in a measured way that is enough to cool inflation - currently at more than 6% using the central bank's preferred measure and more than 8% based on the widely cited consumer price index - while leaving a strong job market largely intact.

Through asset values and other channels - rising mortgage interest rates may already be cooling housing prices, for example - the Fed hopes inflation can be brought down to the central bank's 2% target.

TWO-FISTED TIGHTENING

The challenge is clamping down on the economy without breaking it.

U.S. gross domestic product fell 1.4% over the first three months of the year, the Commerce Department reported on Thursday, but the decline was driven by a drop in government spending on pandemic programs, falling inventories, and a spike in coronavirus cases that has since eased. Personal spending remained strong and imports grew.

New inflation-related data to be released on Friday for March is expected to show little relief from the trends that have pushed the Fed from nursing the economy through the pandemic to taming the excesses of its reopening.

Graphic: The COVID inflation surge - https://graphics.reuters.com/USA-FED/INFLATION/akvezawxopr/chart.png

The Fed is about to tighten monetary policy in a two-fisted way that has never been attempted with such intensity - raising interest rates in larger, half-percentage-point increments for the first time in 22 years, shifting in what may be record time from interest rates meant to boost the economy to a "neutral" stance, and allowing its balance sheet to shrink by as much as $95 billion per month likely beginning in June.

The central bank's policy committee will meet on Tuesday and Wednesday and is expected to approve both a half-percentage-point rate hike and the upcoming balance sheet reductions. The Fed raised its policy rate by a quarter of a percentage point at its last meeting in March.

Plans to trim $60 billion per month from the Fed's holdings of U.S. Treasury bonds and up to $35 billion per month from its holdings of mortgage-backed securities were outlined in the minutes from the Fed's March meeting, and the announcement of formal approval and a start date is not likely on its own to have much impact.

But there is still the potential for stress in an economy that may be facing more of it than expected between the war in Ukraine, new coronavirus lockdowns in China that could slow improvements in the global flow of goods, and a fast-moving Fed.

Graphic: A fast trip to neutral - https://graphics.reuters.com/USA-ECONOMY/POWELL/zdvxogolapx/chart.png

TREASURY WILDCARD

The impact of the changes to the Fed's balance sheet will to some degree depend on decisions outside its control, including how commercial banks and large money market funds manage their own businesses, and how the U.S. Treasury finances government deficits.

As the Fed becomes a smaller player in the government bond market, Treasury's decisions to sell more long-term or short-term securities could influence interest rates and the economy in different ways.

"The key input is how the Treasury Department alters its financing strategy in response to the Fed stepping back," said Ed Al-Hussainy, rates strategist with Columbia Threadneedle.

Next week will bring developments of consequence on both fronts: The Fed will roll out its balance sheet playbook and the Treasury will unveil its debt supply plans for the next three months. How well the two mesh is an open question.

As Al-Hussainy noted: "The Fed accounts for less than 20% of Treasury demand while the Treasury Department accounts for 100% of supply."

Citi economist Matt King noted the potential for surprises. While it was deep in the weeds of the Fed's operations, an apparent rush of tax payments to the Treasury Department's account at the central bank last week, coupled with banks' use of a technical Fed program, in effect pulled $460 billion out of the financial system and, King said, possibly caused some of last week's stock market volatility.

Some of that may reverse, he said, but "the trajectory remains clear," he wrote. Central banks globally are pulling back, and the impact is "not fully priced in to risk assets."

Để lại bình luận
Hot Auto Trade Bot Phương Thức Thanh Toán
BROKERS ĐƯỢC CẤP PHÉP
net_home_top Ai VIF
01-05-2024 10:45:17 (UTC+7)

EUR/USD

1.0658

-0.0008 (-0.07%)

Summary

↑ Sell

Moving Avg:

Buy (0)

Sell (12)

Indicators:

Buy (2)

Sell (3)

EUR/USD

1.0658

-0.0008 (-0.07%)

Summary

↑ Sell

Moving Avg:

Buy (0)

Sell (12)

Indicators:

Buy (2)

Sell (3)

GBP/USD

1.2475

-0.0015 (-0.12%)

Summary

↑ Sell

Moving Avg:

Buy (0)

Sell (12)

Indicators:

Buy (0)

Sell (10)

USD/JPY

157.91

+0.12 (+0.07%)

Summary

↑ Buy

Moving Avg:

Buy (12)

Sell (0)

Indicators:

Buy (9)

Sell (0)

AUD/USD

0.6469

-0.0003 (-0.05%)

Summary

Neutral

Moving Avg:

Buy (10)

Sell (2)

Indicators:

Buy (2)

Sell (3)

USD/CAD

1.3780

+0.0003 (+0.03%)

Summary

↑ Buy

Moving Avg:

Buy (12)

Sell (0)

Indicators:

Buy (7)

Sell (0)

EUR/JPY

168.32

+0.10 (+0.06%)

Summary

↑ Buy

Moving Avg:

Buy (12)

Sell (0)

Indicators:

Buy (9)

Sell (0)

EUR/CHF

0.9808

+0.0001 (+0.01%)

Summary

Neutral

Moving Avg:

Buy (0)

Sell (12)

Indicators:

Buy (3)

Sell (2)

Gold Futures

2,295.80

-7.10 (-0.31%)

Summary

↑ Sell

Moving Avg:

Buy (0)

Sell (12)

Indicators:

Buy (0)

Sell (9)

Silver Futures

26.677

+0.023 (+0.09%)

Summary

↑ Sell

Moving Avg:

Buy (2)

Sell (10)

Indicators:

Buy (0)

Sell (9)

Copper Futures

4.5305

-0.0105 (-0.23%)

Summary

↑ Buy

Moving Avg:

Buy (10)

Sell (2)

Indicators:

Buy (8)

Sell (1)

Crude Oil WTI Futures

81.14

-0.79 (-0.96%)

Summary

↑ Sell

Moving Avg:

Buy (0)

Sell (12)

Indicators:

Buy (1)

Sell (7)

Brent Oil Futures

85.62

-0.71 (-0.82%)

Summary

↑ Sell

Moving Avg:

Buy (1)

Sell (11)

Indicators:

Buy (1)

Sell (7)

Natural Gas Futures

1.946

-0.009 (-0.46%)

Summary

↑ Sell

Moving Avg:

Buy (0)

Sell (12)

Indicators:

Buy (0)

Sell (5)

US Coffee C Futures

213.73

-13.77 (-6.05%)

Summary

↑ Sell

Moving Avg:

Buy (3)

Sell (9)

Indicators:

Buy (0)

Sell (10)

Euro Stoxx 50

4,920.55

-60.54 (-1.22%)

Summary

↑ Sell

Moving Avg:

Buy (4)

Sell (8)

Indicators:

Buy (1)

Sell (7)

S&P 500

5,035.69

-80.48 (-1.57%)

Summary

↑ Sell

Moving Avg:

Buy (0)

Sell (12)

Indicators:

Buy (0)

Sell (7)

DAX

17,921.95

-196.37 (-1.08%)

Summary

↑ Sell

Moving Avg:

Buy (0)

Sell (12)

Indicators:

Buy (1)

Sell (6)

FTSE 100

8,144.13

-2.90 (-0.04%)

Summary

Sell

Moving Avg:

Buy (5)

Sell (7)

Indicators:

Buy (2)

Sell (4)

Hang Seng

17,763.03

+16.12 (+0.09%)

Summary

↑ Sell

Moving Avg:

Buy (0)

Sell (12)

Indicators:

Buy (1)

Sell (6)

US Small Cap 2000

1,973.05

-42.98 (-2.13%)

Summary

↑ Sell

Moving Avg:

Buy (0)

Sell (12)

Indicators:

Buy (0)

Sell (7)

IBEX 35

10,854.40

-246.40 (-2.22%)

Summary

Neutral

Moving Avg:

Buy (6)

Sell (6)

Indicators:

Buy (3)

Sell (3)

BASF SE NA O.N.

49.155

+0.100 (+0.20%)

Summary

↑ Sell

Moving Avg:

Buy (0)

Sell (12)

Indicators:

Buy (1)

Sell (7)

Bayer AG NA

27.35

-0.24 (-0.87%)

Summary

↑ Sell

Moving Avg:

Buy (0)

Sell (12)

Indicators:

Buy (0)

Sell (8)

Allianz SE VNA O.N.

266.60

+0.30 (+0.11%)

Summary

↑ Sell

Moving Avg:

Buy (0)

Sell (12)

Indicators:

Buy (3)

Sell (5)

Adidas AG

226.40

-5.90 (-2.54%)

Summary

↑ Sell

Moving Avg:

Buy (0)

Sell (12)

Indicators:

Buy (2)

Sell (7)

Deutsche Lufthansa AG

6.714

-0.028 (-0.42%)

Summary

Neutral

Moving Avg:

Buy (3)

Sell (9)

Indicators:

Buy (9)

Sell (1)

Siemens AG Class N

175.90

-1.74 (-0.98%)

Summary

↑ Sell

Moving Avg:

Buy (0)

Sell (12)

Indicators:

Buy (0)

Sell (9)

Deutsche Bank AG

15.010

-0.094 (-0.62%)

Summary

Neutral

Moving Avg:

Buy (4)

Sell (8)

Indicators:

Buy (6)

Sell (2)

 EUR/USD1.0658↑ Sell
 GBP/USD1.2475↑ Sell
 USD/JPY157.91↑ Buy
 AUD/USD0.6469Neutral
 USD/CAD1.3780↑ Buy
 EUR/JPY168.32↑ Buy
 EUR/CHF0.9808Neutral
 Gold2,295.80↑ Sell
 Silver26.677↑ Sell
 Copper4.5305↑ Buy
 Crude Oil WTI81.14↑ Sell
 Brent Oil85.62↑ Sell
 Natural Gas1.946↑ Sell
 US Coffee C213.73↑ Sell
 Euro Stoxx 504,920.55↑ Sell
 S&P 5005,035.69↑ Sell
 DAX17,921.95↑ Sell
 FTSE 1008,144.13Sell
 Hang Seng17,763.03↑ Sell
 Small Cap 20001,973.05↑ Sell
 IBEX 3510,854.40Neutral
 BASF49.155↑ Sell
 Bayer27.35↑ Sell
 Allianz266.60↑ Sell
 Adidas226.40↑ Sell
 Lufthansa6.714Neutral
 Siemens AG175.90↑ Sell
 Deutsche Bank AG15.010Neutral
Mua/Bán 1 chỉ SJC
# So hôm qua # Chênh TG
SJC Eximbank8,300/ 8,500
(8,300/ 8,500) # 1,298
SJC 1L, 10L, 1KG8,300/ 8,520
(0/ 0) # 1,510
SJC 1c, 2c, 5c7,380/ 7,550
(0/ 0) # 540
SJC 0,5c7,380/ 7,560
(0/ 0) # 550
SJC 99,99%7,370/ 7,470
(0/ 0) # 460
SJC 99%7,196/ 7,396
(0/ 0) # 386
Cập nhật 01-05-2024 10:45:19
Xem lịch sử giá vàng SJC: nhấn đây!
ↀ Giá vàng thế giới
$2,285.72-47.5-2.04%
ʘ Giá bán lẻ xăng dầu
Sản phẩmVùng 1Vùng 2
RON 95-V25.44025.940
RON 95-III24.91025.400
E5 RON 92-II23.91024.380
DO 0.05S20.71021.120
DO 0,001S-V21.32021.740
Dầu hỏa 2-K20.68021.090
ↂ Giá dầu thô thế giới
WTI$80.83+3.390.04%
Brent$85.50+3.860.05%
$ Tỷ giá Vietcombank
Ngoại tệMua vàoBán ra
USD25.088,0025.458,00
EUR26.475,3627.949,19
GBP30.873,5232.211,36
JPY156,74166,02
KRW15,9219,31
Cập nhật lúc 10:45:15 01/05/2024
Xem bảng tỷ giá hối đoái
Phương Thức Thanh Toán