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Japan Dec core CPI tipped at 41-year-high 4.0%, twice BOJ's 2% target - Reuters poll

Friday, January 13, 2023
Japan Dec core CPI tipped at 41-year-high 4.0%, twice BOJ's 2% target - Reuters poll © Reuters. People make their way at Ameyoko shopping district in Tokyo, Japan, May 20, 2022. REUTERS/Kim Kyung-Hoon

By Kantaro Komiya

TOKYO (Reuters) - Japan's core consumer prices likely rose 4.0% in December, double the Bank of Japan (BOJ)'s 2% target, hitting a fresh 41-year-high, a Reuters poll of economists showed on Friday, testing the central bank's sustained easy-money policy.

At its first 2023 rate review next week, the BOJ is expected to debate whether further steps are needed to address market distortions after a surprise tweak last month to its policy, which sets some overnight rates below zero and targets the 10-year government bond yield around zero.

Investors tested that policy on Friday, pushing the 10-year yield above the newly set 0.5% top of the BOJ's target band before a wave of emergency bond buying by the central bank reined it back in.

December's nationwide core consumer price index (CPI), which excludes volatile fresh food items but includes energy, likely rose 4.0% from a year earlier, according to the median estimate of 18 economists.

Core CPI rose 3.7% in November, the highest since the 4.0% recorded in December 1981.

"Energy inflation should have accelerated, led by gas bills," with food prices rising on higher costs of ingredients such as meat, SMBC Nikko Securities analysts said in a note.

Tokyo's core CPI, a leading indicator of nationwide inflation, rose a faster-than-expected 4.0% in December on widening retail price increases, data showed on Tuesday.

The government will release the December nationwide CPI data at 8:30 a.m. on Friday (2330 GMT on Thursday), after the BOJ ends its policy meeting on Wednesday.

Economists in the Reuters poll forecast wholesale inflation accelerating to 9.5% on year in December. Core machinery orders, a leading indicator of business spending, were tipped to fall 0.9% on month in November, the first decrease since September.

A forecast 22.4% on-year rise in imports, outpacing a 10.1% gain in exports, would mean a December trade deficit of 1.6528 trillion yen ($12.84 billion), the 17th month of shortfall.

The wholesale inflation data is due at 8:50 a.m. on Monday (2350 GMT on Sunday), machinery orders at 8:50 a.m. on Wednesday (2350 GMT on Tuesday) and trade at 8:50 a.m. on Thursday (2350 GMT on Wednesday).

($1 = 128.6900 yen)

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01-05-2024 10:45:17 (UTC+7)

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 EUR/USD1.0658↑ Sell
 GBP/USD1.2475↑ Sell
 USD/JPY157.91↑ Buy
 AUD/USD0.6469Neutral
 USD/CAD1.3780↑ Buy
 EUR/JPY168.32↑ Buy
 EUR/CHF0.9808Neutral
 Gold2,295.80↑ Sell
 Silver26.677↑ Sell
 Copper4.5305↑ Buy
 Crude Oil WTI81.14↑ Sell
 Brent Oil85.62↑ Sell
 Natural Gas1.946↑ Sell
 US Coffee C213.73↑ Sell
 Euro Stoxx 504,920.55↑ Sell
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 DAX17,921.95↑ Sell
 FTSE 1008,144.13Sell
 Hang Seng17,763.03↑ Sell
 Small Cap 20001,973.05↑ Sell
 IBEX 3510,854.40Neutral
 BASF49.155↑ Sell
 Bayer27.35↑ Sell
 Allianz266.60↑ Sell
 Adidas226.40↑ Sell
 Lufthansa6.714Neutral
 Siemens AG175.90↑ Sell
 Deutsche Bank AG15.010Neutral
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