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Goldman Sachs' investment team bullish on equities -report

By Carolina Mandl NEW YORK (Reuters) - Goldman Sachs (NYSE:GS) Investment Strategy Group expects U.S. equities to generate positive returns for investors in 2023 even if the...
Goldman Sachs' investment team bullish on equities -report © Reuters. A view of the Goldman Sachs global headquarters in Manhattan, New York, U.S., November 15, 2021. REUTERS/Andrew Kelly
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By Carolina Mandl

NEW YORK (Reuters) - Goldman Sachs (NYSE:GS) Investment Strategy Group expects U.S. equities to generate positive returns for investors in 2023 even if the economy enters a recession, according to its outlook report released on Friday.

The bank's wealth management team expect the benchmark S&P 500 to end 2023 at between 4,200 and 4,300 points, up to 12% higher than its 2022 year-end level. Last year, the S&P fell 19.4% in its worst year since 2008, reflecting higher interest rates and recession fears.

The team estimates a 45% to 55% chance that the U.S. economy will enter a recession, but believes any such downturn would likely be mild. Stock prices could initially fall in 2023 but recover before year-end, the bank's analysts said, adding that equities historically have tended to bottom three months before the end of recessions.

"Because not all paths in a recession lead to stock market losses at the end of 2023, we believe the odds of positive U.S. equity returns exceed those of a recession this year," Chief Investment Officer Sharmin Mossavar-Rahmani and her team said in the report, adding investors are better off staying the course and even considering increasing their exposure to stocks if they weaken further.

The S&P 500 is up 3.8% year-to-date.

Goldman Sachs's team also considers indexes in Europe, Japan, Britain and emerging markets will deliver gains to investors this year.

They said there is a "fog of uncertainty still facing investors", but overall the outlook seems more positive for both equities and bonds. "After hitting an icy patch last year, we see financial markets regaining traction in 2023," it said.

A diversified portfolio of stocks and bonds is likely to generate a 9% return this year if a recession is avoided, Goldman said. If it occurs but recedes soon, investors may still have high single-digit returns. But if it lasts longer, the portfolio would cause low to mid single-digit losses, they said.

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04-10-2023 21:15:01 (UTC+7)

EUR/USD

1.0497

+0.0032 (+0.31%)

Summary

↑ Sell

Moving Avg:

Buy (4)

Sell (8)

Indicators:

Buy (0)

Sell (8)

EUR/USD

1.0497

+0.0032 (+0.31%)

Summary

↑ Sell

Moving Avg:

Buy (4)

Sell (8)

Indicators:

Buy (0)

Sell (8)

GBP/USD

1.2131

+0.0056 (+0.46%)

Summary

↑ Sell

Moving Avg:

Buy (3)

Sell (9)

Indicators:

Buy (0)

Sell (6)

USD/JPY

148.99

-0.03 (-0.02%)

Summary

Neutral

Moving Avg:

Buy (6)

Sell (6)

Indicators:

Buy (2)

Sell (5)

AUD/USD

0.6327

+0.0026 (+0.41%)

Summary

Neutral

Moving Avg:

Buy (6)

Sell (6)

Indicators:

Buy (3)

Sell (3)

USD/CAD

1.3760

+0.0052 (+0.38%)

Summary

↑ Buy

Moving Avg:

Buy (8)

Sell (4)

Indicators:

Buy (7)

Sell (1)

EUR/JPY

156.38

+0.41 (+0.26%)

Summary

↑ Sell

Moving Avg:

Buy (0)

Sell (12)

Indicators:

Buy (0)

Sell (10)

EUR/CHF

0.9628

-0.0012 (-0.12%)

Summary

↑ Sell

Moving Avg:

Buy (1)

Sell (11)

Indicators:

Buy (1)

Sell (6)

Gold Futures

1,835.85

-5.65 (-0.31%)

Summary

Buy

Moving Avg:

Buy (6)

Sell (6)

Indicators:

Buy (8)

Sell (1)

Silver Futures

21.135

-0.242 (-1.13%)

Summary

Buy

Moving Avg:

Buy (6)

Sell (6)

Indicators:

Buy (7)

Sell (1)

Copper Futures

3.5650

-0.0560 (-1.55%)

Summary

Neutral

Moving Avg:

Buy (4)

Sell (8)

Indicators:

Buy (4)

Sell (3)

Crude Oil WTI Futures

86.71

-2.52 (-2.82%)

Summary

Neutral

Moving Avg:

Buy (4)

Sell (8)

Indicators:

Buy (3)

Sell (3)

Brent Oil Futures

88.39

-2.53 (-2.78%)

Summary

↑ Sell

Moving Avg:

Buy (0)

Sell (12)

Indicators:

Buy (1)

Sell (7)

Natural Gas Futures

3.034

+0.085 (+2.88%)

Summary

Neutral

Moving Avg:

Buy (8)

Sell (4)

Indicators:

Buy (1)

Sell (4)

US Coffee C Futures

148.10

-0.65 (-0.44%)

Summary

↑ Sell

Moving Avg:

Buy (1)

Sell (11)

Indicators:

Buy (0)

Sell (9)

Euro Stoxx 50

4,097.45

+1.86 (+0.05%)

Summary

↑ Sell

Moving Avg:

Buy (4)

Sell (8)

Indicators:

Buy (0)

Sell (8)

S&P 500

4,232.42

+2.97 (+0.07%)

Summary

Sell

Moving Avg:

Buy (6)

Sell (6)

Indicators:

Buy (0)

Sell (7)

DAX

15,084.65

-0.56 (0.00%)

Summary

Sell

Moving Avg:

Buy (4)

Sell (8)

Indicators:

Buy (0)

Sell (5)

FTSE 100

7,412.73

-57.43 (-0.77%)

Summary

↑ Sell

Moving Avg:

Buy (1)

Sell (11)

Indicators:

Buy (1)

Sell (10)

Hang Seng

17,186.00

-90.00 (-0.52%)

Summary

↑ Buy

Moving Avg:

Buy (12)

Sell (0)

Indicators:

Buy (6)

Sell (1)

US Small Cap 2000

1,710.65

-16.50 (-0.96%)

Summary

↑ Sell

Moving Avg:

Buy (1)

Sell (11)

Indicators:

Buy (0)

Sell (8)

IBEX 35

9,098.86

-66.64 (-0.73%)

Summary

↑ Sell

Moving Avg:

Buy (3)

Sell (9)

Indicators:

Buy (0)

Sell (8)

BASF SE NA O.N.

41.595

-0.165 (-0.40%)

Summary

↑ Sell

Moving Avg:

Buy (0)

Sell (12)

Indicators:

Buy (1)

Sell (9)

Bayer AG NA

44.27

+0.39 (+0.89%)

Summary

↑ Sell

Moving Avg:

Buy (3)

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219.65

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Moving Avg:

Buy (0)

Sell (12)

Indicators:

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Sell (9)

Adidas AG

161.35

+0.63 (+0.39%)

Summary

Sell

Moving Avg:

Buy (4)

Sell (8)

Indicators:

Buy (0)

Sell (5)

Deutsche Lufthansa AG

7.155

-0.092 (-1.27%)

Summary

↑ Sell

Moving Avg:

Buy (2)

Sell (10)

Indicators:

Buy (0)

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Siemens AG Class N

133.49

+0.39 (+0.29%)

Summary

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Buy (0)

Sell (12)

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Deutsche Bank AG

9.880

-0.051 (-0.51%)

Summary

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Moving Avg:

Buy (0)

Sell (12)

Indicators:

Buy (2)

Sell (7)

    EUR/USD 1.0497 ↑ Sell  
    GBP/USD 1.2131 ↑ Sell  
    USD/JPY 148.99 Neutral  
    AUD/USD 0.6327 Neutral  
    USD/CAD 1.3760 ↑ Buy  
    EUR/JPY 156.38 ↑ Sell  
    EUR/CHF 0.9628 ↑ Sell  
    Gold 1,835.85 Buy  
    Silver 21.135 Buy  
    Copper 3.5650 Neutral  
    Crude Oil WTI 86.71 Neutral  
    Brent Oil 88.39 ↑ Sell  
    Natural Gas 3.034 Neutral  
    US Coffee C 148.10 ↑ Sell  
    Euro Stoxx 50 4,097.45 ↑ Sell  
    S&P 500 4,232.42 Sell  
    DAX 15,084.65 Sell  
    FTSE 100 7,412.73 ↑ Sell  
    Hang Seng 17,186.00 ↑ Buy  
    Small Cap 2000 1,710.65 ↑ Sell  
    IBEX 35 9,098.86 ↑ Sell  
    BASF 41.595 ↑ Sell  
    Bayer 44.27 ↑ Sell  
    Allianz 219.65 ↑ Sell  
    Adidas 161.35 Sell  
    Lufthansa 7.155 ↑ Sell  
    Siemens AG 133.49 ↑ Sell  
    Deutsche Bank AG 9.880 ↑ Sell  
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# So hôm qua # Chênh TG
SJC Eximbank6,820/ 6,870
(-20/ -20) # 1,473
SJC HCM6,815/ 6,885
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Ngoại tệMua vàoBán ra
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JPY158,99168,29
KRW15,4918,87
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