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Goldman Sachs' investment team bullish on equities -report

By Carolina Mandl NEW YORK (Reuters) - Goldman Sachs (NYSE:GS) Investment Strategy Group expects U.S. equities to generate positive returns for investors in 2023 even if the...
Goldman Sachs' investment team bullish on equities -report © Reuters. A view of the Goldman Sachs global headquarters in Manhattan, New York, U.S., November 15, 2021. REUTERS/Andrew Kelly
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By Carolina Mandl

NEW YORK (Reuters) - Goldman Sachs (NYSE:GS) Investment Strategy Group expects U.S. equities to generate positive returns for investors in 2023 even if the economy enters a recession, according to its outlook report released on Friday.

The bank's wealth management team expect the benchmark S&P 500 to end 2023 at between 4,200 and 4,300 points, up to 12% higher than its 2022 year-end level. Last year, the S&P fell 19.4% in its worst year since 2008, reflecting higher interest rates and recession fears.

The team estimates a 45% to 55% chance that the U.S. economy will enter a recession, but believes any such downturn would likely be mild. Stock prices could initially fall in 2023 but recover before year-end, the bank's analysts said, adding that equities historically have tended to bottom three months before the end of recessions.

"Because not all paths in a recession lead to stock market losses at the end of 2023, we believe the odds of positive U.S. equity returns exceed those of a recession this year," Chief Investment Officer Sharmin Mossavar-Rahmani and her team said in the report, adding investors are better off staying the course and even considering increasing their exposure to stocks if they weaken further.

The S&P 500 is up 3.8% year-to-date.

Goldman Sachs's team also considers indexes in Europe, Japan, Britain and emerging markets will deliver gains to investors this year.

They said there is a "fog of uncertainty still facing investors", but overall the outlook seems more positive for both equities and bonds. "After hitting an icy patch last year, we see financial markets regaining traction in 2023," it said.

A diversified portfolio of stocks and bonds is likely to generate a 9% return this year if a recession is avoided, Goldman said. If it occurs but recedes soon, investors may still have high single-digit returns. But if it lasts longer, the portfolio would cause low to mid single-digit losses, they said.

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03-02-2023 14:45:59 (UTC+7)

EUR/USD

1.0894

-0.0016 (-0.15%)

Summary

↑ Buy

Moving Avg:

Buy (7)

Sell (5)

Indicators:

Buy (6)

Sell (0)

EUR/USD

1.0894

-0.0016 (-0.15%)

Summary

↑ Buy

Moving Avg:

Buy (7)

Sell (5)

Indicators:

Buy (6)

Sell (0)

GBP/USD

1.2198

-0.0026 (-0.21%)

Summary

Neutral

Moving Avg:

Buy (5)

Sell (7)

Indicators:

Buy (7)

Sell (2)

USD/JPY

128.68

+0.03 (+0.02%)

Summary

↑ Buy

Moving Avg:

Buy (12)

Sell (0)

Indicators:

Buy (9)

Sell (1)

AUD/USD

0.7062

-0.0014 (-0.20%)

Summary

Neutral

Moving Avg:

Buy (1)

Sell (11)

Indicators:

Buy (4)

Sell (2)

USD/CAD

1.3339

+0.0024 (+0.18%)

Summary

Neutral

Moving Avg:

Buy (9)

Sell (3)

Indicators:

Buy (1)

Sell (8)

EUR/JPY

140.18

-0.18 (-0.13%)

Summary

↑ Buy

Moving Avg:

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Buy (9)

Sell (0)

EUR/CHF

0.9969

+0.0009 (+0.10%)

Summary

Neutral

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Gold Futures

1,926.05

-4.75 (-0.25%)

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Sell (10)

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Silver Futures

23.517

-0.098 (-0.41%)

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Buy

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Copper Futures

4.1145

+0.0235 (+0.57%)

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Buy

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Crude Oil WTI Futures

75.59

-0.29 (-0.38%)

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Neutral

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Brent Oil Futures

81.92

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Neutral

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Natural Gas Futures

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US Coffee C Futures

178.38

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Euro Stoxx 50

4,241.12

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Neutral

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Buy (3)

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S&P 500

4,179.76

+60.55 (+1.47%)

Summary

↑ Buy

Moving Avg:

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DAX

15,509.19

+328.45 (+2.16%)

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Buy

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FTSE 100

7,820.16

+59.05 (+0.76%)

Summary

↑ Buy

Moving Avg:

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Indicators:

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Hang Seng

21,624.50

-333.86 (-1.52%)

Summary

↑ Sell

Moving Avg:

Buy (1)

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Indicators:

Buy (1)

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US Small Cap 2000

2,001.22

+40.41 (+2.06%)

Summary

↑ Buy

Moving Avg:

Buy (10)

Sell (2)

Indicators:

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IBEX 35

9,229.70

+131.60 (+1.45%)

Summary

↑ Sell

Moving Avg:

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BASF SE NA O.N.

53.840

+1.100 (+2.09%)

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↑ Buy

Moving Avg:

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56.80

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221.70

+0.70 (+0.32%)

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Adidas AG

157.92

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Deutsche Lufthansa AG

9.893

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Summary

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Siemens AG Class N

143.72

+0.72 (+0.50%)

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Deutsche Bank AG

11.456

-0.794 (-6.48%)

Summary

Neutral

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    EUR/USD 1.0894 ↑ Buy  
    GBP/USD 1.2198 Neutral  
    USD/JPY 128.68 ↑ Buy  
    AUD/USD 0.7062 Neutral  
    USD/CAD 1.3339 Neutral  
    EUR/JPY 140.18 ↑ Buy  
    EUR/CHF 0.9969 Neutral  
    Gold 1,926.05 Neutral  
    Silver 23.517 Buy  
    Copper 4.1145 Buy  
    Crude Oil WTI 75.59 Neutral  
    Brent Oil 81.92 Neutral  
    Natural Gas 2.410 Neutral  
    US Coffee C 178.38 ↑ Buy  
    Euro Stoxx 50 4,241.12 Neutral  
    S&P 500 4,179.76 ↑ Buy  
    DAX 15,509.19 Buy  
    FTSE 100 7,820.16 ↑ Buy  
    Hang Seng 21,624.50 ↑ Sell  
    Small Cap 2000 2,001.22 ↑ Buy  
    IBEX 35 9,229.70 ↑ Sell  
    BASF 53.840 ↑ Buy  
    Bayer 56.80 ↑ Buy  
    Allianz 221.70 ↑ Buy  
    Adidas 157.92 ↑ Buy  
    Lufthansa 9.893 ↑ Sell  
    Siemens AG 143.72 ↑ Buy  
    Deutsche Bank AG 11.456 Neutral  
Mua/Bán 1 chỉ SJC
# So hôm qua # Chênh TG
SJC Eximbank6,670/ 6,730
(-40/ -40) # 1,287
SJC HCM6,680/ 6,760
(-20/ -20) # 1,318
SJC Hanoi6,680/ 6,762
(-20/ -20) # 1,320
SJC Danang6,680/ 6,762
(-20/ -20) # 1,320
SJC Nhatrang6,680/ 6,762
(-20/ -20) # 1,320
SJC Cantho6,680/ 6,762
(-20/ -20) # 1,320
Cập nhật 03-02-2023 14:46:01
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ↀ Giá vàng thế giới
$1,912.70 -2.42 -0.13%
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ʘ Giá bán lẻ xăng dầu
Sản phẩm Vùng 1 Vùng 2
RON 95-V24.00024.480
RON 95-III23.14023.600
E5 RON 92-II22.32022.760
DO 0.05S22.52022.970
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Dầu hỏa 2-K22.57023.020
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WTI $75.82 +0.36 0.48%
Brent $81.92 +0.28 0.34%
$ Tỷ giá Vietcombank
Ngoại tệMua vàoBán ra
USD23.250,0023.620,00
EUR24.892,6426.286,54
GBP27.897,1229.086,72
JPY177,36187,76
KRW16,5420,16
Cập nhật lúc 14:40:58 03/02/2023
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