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Global economy may avoid recession as inflation risks ease - J.P. Morgan

14 Tháng Chín 2022
Global economy may avoid recession as inflation risks ease - J.P. Morgan © Reuters. FILE PHOTO: A view of the exterior of the JP Morgan Chase & Co. corporate headquarters in New York City May 20, 2015. REUTERS/Mike Segar
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(Reuters) - The global economy could avert a recession as data points to a potential soft landing, J.P. Morgan analysts said, while adding that the Federal Reserve might have "over-reacted" with the 75 basis point rate hike in July.

A clutch of recent data from major economies is suggesting moderating inflation and wage pressures as well as stabilizing consumer confidence, the brokerage said in a note dated Monday.

"The probability for soft landing has ticked up with moderating inflation and jobs prints, while at the same time, positioning remains at extreme lows," the brokerage added.

Among stocks, the energy sector is trading at a heavy discount and offers a favorable investment opportunity, the analysts said.

The brokerage is also bullish on China as COVID-19 restrictions in the country ease and fiscal stimulus expands, boosting bets on risk assets.

Surveys from last week showed Europe is almost certainly entering a recession, with inflation running at more than four times the European Central Bank's 2% target. Deepening cost of living crisis and a gloomy outlook is also keeping consumers wary of spending.

But J.P. Morgan said it was expecting European governments to act to shield consumers from biting energy inflation, as natural gas prices skyrocket after sanctions-hit Russia disrupted supply.

Corporate earnings in Europe are also "defying economic momentum", J.P. Morgan said.

The U.S. Labor Department's data last month showed consumer prices did not rise in July due to a sharp drop in the cost of gasoline, delivering a sign of relief for Americans who have watched inflation reach levels not seen in four decades.

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27-09-2022 15:09:01 (UTC+7)

EUR/USD

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EUR/USD

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    EUR/USD 0.9627 ↑ Sell  
    GBP/USD 1.0788 ↑ Sell  
    USD/JPY 144.34 ↑ Buy  
    AUD/USD 0.6482 ↑ Sell  
    USD/CAD 1.3680 ↑ Buy  
    EUR/JPY 138.95 ↑ Sell  
    EUR/CHF 0.9531 ↑ Sell  
    Gold 1,642.55 ↑ Sell  
    Silver 18.617 ↑ Sell  
    Copper 3.3400 ↑ Sell  
    Crude Oil WTI 77.77 ↑ Sell  
    Brent Oil 83.94 Neutral  
    Natural Gas 7.174 ↑ Sell  
    US Coffee C 222.48 ↑ Sell  
    Euro Stoxx 50 3,385.25 Neutral  
    S&P 500 3,655.04 ↑ Sell  
    DAX 12,381.55 ↑ Buy  
    FTSE 100 7,053.00 Sell  
    Hang Seng 17,845.50 Sell  
    Small Cap 2000 1,664.34 ↑ Buy  
    IBEX 35 7,547.59 ↑ Sell  
    BASF 40.385 ↑ Buy  
    Bayer 49.17 ↑ Sell  
    Allianz 166.82 ↑ Sell  
    Adidas 130.75 ↑ Sell  
    Lufthansa 5.811 ↑ Sell  
    Siemens AG 100.32 ↑ Sell  
    Deutsche Bank AG 8.500 ↑ Sell  
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