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Fitch affirms Mexico at 'BBB-', notes "prudent" policies alongside muted growth

Saturday, November 19, 2022
Fitch affirms Mexico at 'BBB-', notes © Reuters. FILE PHOTO: A man sells corn grains at a public market in Ozumba de Alzate, State of Mexico, Mexico, May 24, 2022. REUTERS/Edgard Garrido/File Photo
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By Anthony Esposito

MEXICO CITY (Reuters) - Fitch Ratings on Friday affirmed Mexico's long-term local-currency and foreign-currency issuer default rating (IDR) at 'BBB-', with a stable rating outlook.

"Mexico's rating is supported by a prudent macroeconomic policy framework, stable and robust external finances, and government debt/GDP projected to remain stable at levels below the 'BBB' median," the ratings agency said in a statement.

Fitch added Mexico's rating is constrained by weak governance indicators, muted long-term growth, potential micro policy intervention affecting investment prospects, and the possible contingent liabilities from state oil firm Petroleos Mexicanos (Pemex).

It also said it expects President Andres Manuel Lopez Obrador's government will remain committed to financially supporting Pemex, as part of its priority to strengthen the role of state-owned companies in the energy sector.

There has been seemingly little consistency in how ratings agencies have graded Mexico under the tutelage of Lopez Obrador, a leftist populist who prides himself on being a fiscal conservative.

S&P Global (NYSE:SPGI) Ratings upped Mexico's long-term outlook to stable from negative in July and affirmed its BBB long-term foreign currency rating and BBB-plus long-term local currency rating. The same month, Moody's (NYSE:MCO) Investors Service cut Mexico's credit rating by a notch to "Baa2", forecasting weak investment.

In Friday's statement, Fitch forecast Latin America's second largest economy will grow in real GDP terms by 2.5% in 2022 and 1.4% in 2023.

Fitch also said it expected the Bank of Mexico to continue hiking its key interest rate, projecting it will reach 10.75% by end-2022.

In response to the rating, Mexico's finance ministry said in a statement it "confirm(ed)" Mexico's commitment "to the good management of public finances, allowing the continuation of favorable access to international and national markets."

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    USD/JPY 138.65 ↑ Buy  
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    USD/CAD 1.3446 Buy  
    EUR/JPY 143.60 ↑ Buy  
    EUR/CHF 0.9808 ↑ Buy  
    Gold 1,750.60 Neutral  
    Silver 21.262 Sell  
    Copper 3.5657 ↑ Sell  
    Crude Oil WTI 74.11 ↑ Sell  
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    US Coffee C 164.40 ↑ Sell  
    Euro Stoxx 50 3,962.41 ↑ Buy  
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    DAX 14,541.38 ↑ Buy  
    FTSE 100 7,486.67 ↑ Buy  
    Hang Seng 17,241.00 Neutral  
    Small Cap 2000 1,869.19 ↑ Buy  
    IBEX 35 8,416.60 Sell  
    BASF 49.605 Neutral  
    Bayer 55.45 Sell  
    Allianz 205.35 ↑ Buy  
    Adidas 123.98 Neutral  
    Lufthansa 7.567 ↑ Sell  
    Siemens AG 132.06 ↑ Buy  
    Deutsche Bank AG 10.390 ↑ Buy  
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