net_left Phương Thức Thanh Toán

Fed minutes may point to rate-hike endgame, new debate phase

05 Tháng Giêng 2023

By Howard Schneider

WASHINGTON (Reuters) -The Federal Reserve ended 2022 with a firm promise at its December policy meeting that interest rates would continue rising this year, but at a slower pace and perhaps only by another three-quarters of a percentage point.

That session's readout, due to be released at 2 p.m. EST (1900 GMT) on Wednesday, may provide further insight into just how the endgame of the current tightening cycle will play out, and how deeply U.S. central bank officials are beginning to weigh risks to economic growth against their top-of-mind concern about inflation.

New data released on Wednesday gave little sense that the U.S. job market is beginning to slow in the manner Fed officials hope will allow inflation to ease without a major loss of employment. The number of job openings changed little in November, and remained high in relation to the number of jobseekers - a data point Fed Chair Jerome Powell has emphasized as a signal of continued rapid wage increases that could fuel future inflation.

The Labor Department's employment report for December is due to be released on Friday, with the latest consumer inflation data coming next week, both important benchmarks as the Fed plots its next policy move.

The overall tone of the upcoming minutes is likely to show inflation continued to have top billing among policymakers at their Dec. 13-14 meeting. The pace of price increases has been slowing for several months, but as of November the Fed's preferred inflation gauge - the personal consumption expenditures price index - was still rising at a 5.5% annual rate, more than twice the Fed's 2% target.

In an essay published on Wednesday, Minneapolis Fed President Neel Kashkari said he felt interest rates would need to rise slightly higher than the bulk of his colleagues anticipate, and move up even more if inflation does not slow as expected.

"It will be appropriate to continue to raise rates at least at the next few meetings until we are confident inflation has peaked," wrote Kashkari, who said he sees a potential stopping point for the federal funds rate at around 5.4% this year, versus the 5.1% median projected for 2023 by all 19 Fed officials. "Any sign of slow progress that keeps inflation elevated for longer will warrant, in my view, taking the policy rate potentially much higher."

At the December meeting the Fed raised the target federal funds rate by half a percentage point to a range between 4.25% and 4.50%.

COGNIZANT OF RISKS

If there was a rough unanimity about the coming year, the projections for 2024 diverge dramatically, with one Fed official seeing the policy rate continuing at 5.625%, one seeing it slashed to 3.125%, and no more than seven officials in agreement on any particular rate in an economy that still may be flirting with or muddling through a recession.

With its descriptions of different points of view and the rough sizes of groups of policymakers offering them, the minutes could show the Fed's internal deliberations entering a new phase where risks to economic growth and employment are given more standing, and a broader range of opinions expressed about the tradeoffs needed to continue lowering inflation.

The Fed "seems united on getting policy above 5% but is quite split on exit strategy; how long to hold and how deeply and rapidly to ease on the other side," Derek Tang, economist at LH Meyer, wrote on Tuesday.

The minutes could also help pin down how much sentiment there is to ease the pace of upcoming rate increases to a quarter of a percentage point as of the Jan. 31-Feb. 1 meeting, a way to balance the competing risks the Fed may face this year if inflation continues easing and the economy continues to slow.

The Fed used three-quarters-of-a-percentage-point hikes for much of 2022, but trimmed that to a half-percentage-point increase in December and indicated it may slow the pace even further.

Though Fed Chair Jerome Powell in December remained adamant the central bank will do what it takes to control inflation, he also said officials are cognizant of the risks of overdoing it - something Fed staff also have begun to emphasize.

In the minutes for the Nov. 1-2 meeting, Fed staff put roughly even odds on a recession in 2023, and new research late last month warned that with the world's major central banks raising rates simultaneously the combined impact may be greater than anticipated as policy in one country influences bond yields, currency values and trade patterns in another.

"It is especially challenging to estimate spillovers, and there are concerns that policymakers may underestimate them. In such a case, there is a risk of overtightening that central banks need to be, and we believe are, cognizant of," Fed economists Dario Caldara, Francesco Ferrante, and Albert Queralto wrote.

Để lại bình luận
Hot Auto Trade Bot Phương Thức Thanh Toán
BROKERS ĐƯỢC CẤP PHÉP
net_home_top Ai VIF
30-01-2023 15:02:16 (UTC+7)

EUR/USD

1.0871

+0.0004 (+0.04%)

Summary

↑ Buy

Moving Avg:

Buy (12)

Sell (0)

Indicators:

Buy (5)

Sell (1)

EUR/USD

1.0871

+0.0004 (+0.04%)

Summary

↑ Buy

Moving Avg:

Buy (12)

Sell (0)

Indicators:

Buy (5)

Sell (1)

GBP/USD

1.2378

-0.0019 (-0.15%)

Summary

↑ Sell

Moving Avg:

Buy (0)

Sell (12)

Indicators:

Buy (1)

Sell (8)

USD/JPY

129.74

-0.10 (-0.08%)

Summary

↑ Buy

Moving Avg:

Buy (12)

Sell (0)

Indicators:

Buy (7)

Sell (1)

AUD/USD

0.7083

-0.0020 (-0.28%)

Summary

Neutral

Moving Avg:

Buy (5)

Sell (7)

Indicators:

Buy (7)

Sell (0)

USD/CAD

1.3339

+0.0030 (+0.23%)

Summary

↑ Sell

Moving Avg:

Buy (4)

Sell (8)

Indicators:

Buy (1)

Sell (7)

EUR/JPY

141.04

-0.07 (-0.05%)

Summary

↑ Buy

Moving Avg:

Buy (12)

Sell (0)

Indicators:

Buy (6)

Sell (1)

EUR/CHF

1.0031

+0.0027 (+0.27%)

Summary

↑ Buy

Moving Avg:

Buy (12)

Sell (0)

Indicators:

Buy (7)

Sell (0)

Gold Futures

1,923.20

-6.20 (-0.32%)

Summary

↑ Sell

Moving Avg:

Buy (0)

Sell (12)

Indicators:

Buy (0)

Sell (8)

Silver Futures

23.718

+0.096 (+0.41%)

Summary

Buy

Moving Avg:

Buy (6)

Sell (6)

Indicators:

Buy (8)

Sell (1)

Copper Futures

4.1917

-0.0308 (-0.73%)

Summary

Buy

Moving Avg:

Buy (6)

Sell (6)

Indicators:

Buy (6)

Sell (2)

Crude Oil WTI Futures

79.14

-0.54 (-0.68%)

Summary

Buy

Moving Avg:

Buy (8)

Sell (4)

Indicators:

Buy (5)

Sell (3)

Brent Oil Futures

85.94

-0.46 (-0.53%)

Summary

↑ Buy

Moving Avg:

Buy (10)

Sell (2)

Indicators:

Buy (8)

Sell (1)

Natural Gas Futures

2.656

-0.193 (-6.77%)

Summary

↑ Sell

Moving Avg:

Buy (0)

Sell (12)

Indicators:

Buy (0)

Sell (9)

US Coffee C Futures

169.25

+2.10 (+1.26%)

Summary

Sell

Moving Avg:

Buy (6)

Sell (6)

Indicators:

Buy (2)

Sell (7)

Euro Stoxx 50

4,148.05

-29.96 (-0.72%)

Summary

↑ Buy

Moving Avg:

Buy (12)

Sell (0)

Indicators:

Buy (8)

Sell (0)

S&P 500

4,070.56

+10.13 (+0.25%)

Summary

↑ Sell

Moving Avg:

Buy (0)

Sell (12)

Indicators:

Buy (0)

Sell (7)

DAX

15,077.85

-72.18 (-0.48%)

Summary

↑ Buy

Moving Avg:

Buy (12)

Sell (0)

Indicators:

Buy (8)

Sell (1)

FTSE 100

7,725.20

-39.95 (-0.51%)

Summary

↑ Buy

Moving Avg:

Buy (12)

Sell (0)

Indicators:

Buy (7)

Sell (1)

Hang Seng

22,053.00

-635.90 (-2.80%)

Summary

↑ Sell

Moving Avg:

Buy (0)

Sell (12)

Indicators:

Buy (1)

Sell (4)

US Small Cap 2000

1,911.46

+8.39 (+0.44%)

Summary

↑ Sell

Moving Avg:

Buy (5)

Sell (7)

Indicators:

Buy (0)

Sell (6)

IBEX 35

9,031.23

-28.97 (-0.32%)

Summary

↑ Buy

Moving Avg:

Buy (10)

Sell (2)

Indicators:

Buy (9)

Sell (0)

BASF SE NA O.N.

52.790

+0.000 (+0.00%)

Summary

↑ Buy

Moving Avg:

Buy (12)

Sell (0)

Indicators:

Buy (8)

Sell (0)

Bayer AG NA

56.28

+0.00 (+0.00%)

Summary

↑ Buy

Moving Avg:

Buy (12)

Sell (0)

Indicators:

Buy (5)

Sell (3)

Allianz SE VNA O.N.

221.65

+0.00 (+0.00%)

Summary

↑ Buy

Moving Avg:

Buy (12)

Sell (0)

Indicators:

Buy (8)

Sell (0)

Adidas AG

146.93

-1.37 (-0.92%)

Summary

Sell

Moving Avg:

Buy (6)

Sell (6)

Indicators:

Buy (1)

Sell (7)

Deutsche Lufthansa AG

9.710

-0.045 (-0.46%)

Summary

↑ Buy

Moving Avg:

Buy (9)

Sell (3)

Indicators:

Buy (10)

Sell (0)

Siemens AG Class N

144.50

+0.00 (+0.00%)

Summary

↑ Buy

Moving Avg:

Buy (10)

Sell (2)

Indicators:

Buy (10)

Sell (1)

Deutsche Bank AG

12.315

-0.025 (-0.20%)

Summary

↑ Buy

Moving Avg:

Buy (12)

Sell (0)

Indicators:

Buy (7)

Sell (0)

 EUR/USD1.0871↑ Buy
 GBP/USD1.2378↑ Sell
 USD/JPY129.74↑ Buy
 AUD/USD0.7083Neutral
 USD/CAD1.3339↑ Sell
 EUR/JPY141.04↑ Buy
 EUR/CHF1.0031↑ Buy
 Gold1,923.20↑ Sell
 Silver23.718Buy
 Copper4.1917Buy
 Crude Oil WTI79.14Buy
 Brent Oil85.94↑ Buy
 Natural Gas2.656↑ Sell
 US Coffee C169.25Sell
 Euro Stoxx 504,148.05↑ Buy
 S&P 5004,070.56↑ Sell
 DAX15,077.85↑ Buy
 FTSE 1007,725.20↑ Buy
 Hang Seng22,053.00↑ Sell
 Small Cap 20001,911.46↑ Sell
 IBEX 359,031.23↑ Buy
 BASF52.790↑ Buy
 Bayer56.28↑ Buy
 Allianz221.65↑ Buy
 Adidas146.93Sell
 Lufthansa9.710↑ Buy
 Siemens AG144.50↑ Buy
 Deutsche Bank AG12.315↑ Buy
Mua/Bán 1 chỉ SJC
# So hôm qua # Chênh TG
SJC Eximbank6,620/ 6,700
(-100/ -120) # 1,224
SJC HCM6,650/ 6,750
(-70/ -70) # 1,277
SJC Hanoi6,650/ 6,752
(-70/ -70) # 1,279
SJC Danang6,650/ 6,752
(-70/ -70) # 1,279
SJC Nhatrang6,650/ 6,752
(-70/ -70) # 1,279
SJC Cantho6,650/ 6,752
(-70/ -70) # 1,279
Cập nhật 30-01-2023 15:02:18
Xem lịch sử giá vàng SJC: nhấn đây!
ↀ Giá vàng thế giới
$1,924.35-4.31-0.22%
Live 24 hour Gold Chart
ʘ Giá bán lẻ xăng dầu
Sản phẩmVùng 1Vùng 2
RON 95-V23.01023.470
RON 95-III22.15022.590
E5 RON 92-II21.35021.770
DO 0.05S21.63022.060
DO 0,001S-V23.39023.850
Dầu hỏa 2-K21.80022.230
ↂ Giá dầu thô thế giới
WTI$79.21+1.241.55%
Brent$85.69+1.41.61%
$ Tỷ giá Vietcombank
Ngoại tệMua vàoBán ra
USD23.250,0023.620,00
EUR24.814,9626.204,51
GBP28.296,9629.503,61
JPY176,00186,33
KRW16,5220,13
Cập nhật lúc 14:57:40 30/01/2023
Xem bảng tỷ giá hối đoái
Phương Thức Thanh Toán