net_left Phương Thức Thanh Toán

Explainer-How does Japan's yield curve control work?

16 Tháng Giêng 2023
Explainer-How does Japan's yield curve control work? © Reuters. FILE PHOTO: A man wearing a protective mask walks past the headquarters of Bank of Japan in Tokyo, Japan, May 22, 2020. REUTERS/Kim Kyung-Hoon/File Photo

By Leika Kihara

TOKYO (Reuters) - The Bank of Japan's yield curve control (YCC) is under fierce market attack, as investors test the bank's commitment to capping bond yields with inflation above the BOJ's target.

The BOJ's ultra-easy policy targets some short-term interest rates at -0.1% and the 10-year government bond yield at 0.5% above or below zero, in an effort to sustainably achieve 2% inflation.

Here is how Japan's YCC works and its potential pitfalls.

WHY YCC?

Although the market is testing the upside of the BOJ's bond yield target now, when the bank adopted YCC in 2016, it was trying to stop interest rates from falling too low.

After years of huge bond buying failed to fire up inflation, the BOJ cut short-term rates below zero in January 2016 to fend off an unwelcome yen rise. The move crushed yields across the curve, outraging financial institutions that saw returns on investment evaporate.

To pull long-term rates back up, the BOJ adopted YCC eight months later by adding a 0% target for 10-year bond yields to its -0.1% short-term rate target.

The idea was to control the shape of the yield curve to suppress short- to medium-term rates - which affect corporate borrowers - without depressing super-long yields too much and reducing returns for pension funds and life insurers.

HOW DOES IT WORK?

The BOJ chose a rate regime because it was reaching the limit of quantitative easing, where it bought targeted amounts of bonds to push down yields, hoping to stoke inflation and economic activity.

When the central bank had gobbled up half the bond market, it was hard to commit to buying at a set pace. YCC allowed the BOJ to buy only as much as needed to achieve its 0% yield target.

The bank has tapered bond buying in times of market calm to lay the groundwork for an eventual end to ultra-easy policy.

WHY THE TARGET BAND?

As stubbornly low inflation forced the BOJ to maintain YCC longer than expected, bond yields began to hug a tight range and trading volume dwindled.

To address such side-effects, the BOJ said in July 2018 the 10-year yield could move 0.1% above or below zero. In March 2021, the bank widened the band to 0.25% either direction to breathe life back into a market its buying had paralysed.

Under attack from investors betting on a rate hike, the BOJ doubled the band in December to 0.5% above or below zero and ramped up bond buying to defend the ceiling.

Investors broke the 0.5% cap on Friday, spurring expectations the BOJ would have to take more drastic steps.

PITFALLS?

YCC worked well when inflation was low and prospects for hitting the BOJ's price target were slim, as investors could sit on a pile of government debt that ensured safe returns.

But with inflation eroding those gains, investors have sold bonds, pricing in the chance of a near-term rate hike.

The BOJ has ramped up buying, including through offers to buy unlimited amounts of bonds, to defend its yield cap. That has been criticised by analysts as distorting market pricing and fuelling an unwelcome yen plunge that inflated the cost of raw material imports.

TIPPING POINT?

Haunted by a history of political heat for dialling back stimulus prematurely, the BOJ wants to avoid raising rates until it is clear inflation will sustainably hit the bank's 2% target, backed by higher wage growth.

But markets may force the BOJ to relent, breaching the 10-year yield cap on Friday - before massive BOJ bond buying brought the rate back down. Investors may continue shorting Japanese government bonds this week in anticipation of a near-term rate hike.

If the market attack continues, the BOJ may further widen the band around its yield target or take bolder steps such as raising or abandoning the long-term rate target altogether, some analysts say.

Để lại bình luận
Hot Auto Trade Bot Phương Thức Thanh Toán
BROKERS ĐƯỢC CẤP PHÉP
net_home_top Ai VIF
07-02-2023 08:32:52 (UTC+7)

EUR/USD

1.0740

+0.0010 (+0.09%)

Summary

↑ Buy

Moving Avg:

Buy (12)

Sell (0)

Indicators:

Buy (4)

Sell (3)

EUR/USD

1.0740

+0.0010 (+0.09%)

Summary

↑ Buy

Moving Avg:

Buy (12)

Sell (0)

Indicators:

Buy (4)

Sell (3)

GBP/USD

1.2047

+0.0031 (+0.25%)

Summary

↑ Buy

Moving Avg:

Buy (12)

Sell (0)

Indicators:

Buy (9)

Sell (1)

USD/JPY

132.34

-0.32 (-0.24%)

Summary

↑ Sell

Moving Avg:

Buy (0)

Sell (12)

Indicators:

Buy (0)

Sell (9)

AUD/USD

0.6899

+0.0019 (+0.27%)

Summary

↑ Buy

Moving Avg:

Buy (12)

Sell (0)

Indicators:

Buy (9)

Sell (0)

USD/CAD

1.3428

-0.0018 (-0.13%)

Summary

↑ Sell

Moving Avg:

Buy (0)

Sell (12)

Indicators:

Buy (0)

Sell (7)

EUR/JPY

142.11

-0.22 (-0.15%)

Summary

Neutral

Moving Avg:

Buy (0)

Sell (12)

Indicators:

Buy (5)

Sell (4)

EUR/CHF

0.9954

-0.0006 (-0.06%)

Summary

↑ Sell

Moving Avg:

Buy (0)

Sell (12)

Indicators:

Buy (2)

Sell (6)

Gold Futures

1,884.80

+5.30 (+0.28%)

Summary

↑ Buy

Moving Avg:

Buy (12)

Sell (0)

Indicators:

Buy (9)

Sell (0)

Silver Futures

22.332

+0.095 (+0.43%)

Summary

↑ Buy

Moving Avg:

Buy (12)

Sell (0)

Indicators:

Buy (9)

Sell (0)

Copper Futures

4.0440

+0.0070 (+0.17%)

Summary

↑ Buy

Moving Avg:

Buy (12)

Sell (0)

Indicators:

Buy (9)

Sell (0)

Crude Oil WTI Futures

74.77

+0.66 (+0.89%)

Summary

↑ Buy

Moving Avg:

Buy (12)

Sell (0)

Indicators:

Buy (8)

Sell (0)

Brent Oil Futures

81.66

+0.28 (+0.34%)

Summary

↑ Buy

Moving Avg:

Buy (11)

Sell (1)

Indicators:

Buy (7)

Sell (0)

Natural Gas Futures

2.493

-0.001 (-0.04%)

Summary

↑ Sell

Moving Avg:

Buy (2)

Sell (10)

Indicators:

Buy (0)

Sell (9)

US Coffee C Futures

176.35

+3.55 (+2.05%)

Summary

Neutral

Moving Avg:

Buy (8)

Sell (4)

Indicators:

Buy (3)

Sell (3)

Euro Stoxx 50

4,205.45

-52.53 (-1.23%)

Summary

Neutral

Moving Avg:

Buy (8)

Sell (4)

Indicators:

Buy (3)

Sell (5)

S&P 500

4,111.08

-25.40 (-0.61%)

Summary

↑ Buy

Moving Avg:

Buy (11)

Sell (1)

Indicators:

Buy (8)

Sell (1)

DAX

15,345.91

-130.52 (-0.84%)

Summary

Neutral

Moving Avg:

Buy (6)

Sell (6)

Indicators:

Buy (1)

Sell (5)

FTSE 100

7,836.71

-65.09 (-0.82%)

Summary

Neutral

Moving Avg:

Buy (10)

Sell (2)

Indicators:

Buy (4)

Sell (4)

Hang Seng

21,369.00

+146.84 (+0.69%)

Summary

↑ Buy

Moving Avg:

Buy (12)

Sell (0)

Indicators:

Buy (6)

Sell (0)

US Small Cap 2000

1,954.80

-30.73 (-1.55%)

Summary

↑ Sell

Moving Avg:

Buy (1)

Sell (11)

Indicators:

Buy (2)

Sell (5)

IBEX 35

9,159.20

-66.40 (-0.72%)

Summary

↑ Sell

Moving Avg:

Buy (2)

Sell (10)

Indicators:

Buy (1)

Sell (6)

BASF SE NA O.N.

52.950

-1.090 (-2.02%)

Summary

↑ Sell

Moving Avg:

Buy (0)

Sell (12)

Indicators:

Buy (0)

Sell (9)

Bayer AG NA

58.19

+1.51 (+2.66%)

Summary

↑ Sell

Moving Avg:

Buy (0)

Sell (12)

Indicators:

Buy (0)

Sell (9)

Allianz SE VNA O.N.

219.30

-1.45 (-0.66%)

Summary

Neutral

Moving Avg:

Buy (6)

Sell (6)

Indicators:

Buy (3)

Sell (2)

Adidas AG

155.36

-5.70 (-3.54%)

Summary

↑ Sell

Moving Avg:

Buy (5)

Sell (7)

Indicators:

Buy (2)

Sell (7)

Deutsche Lufthansa AG

9.803

-0.099 (-1.00%)

Summary

↑ Buy

Moving Avg:

Buy (12)

Sell (0)

Indicators:

Buy (5)

Sell (2)

Siemens AG Class N

142.96

-2.06 (-1.42%)

Summary

Sell

Moving Avg:

Buy (6)

Sell (6)

Indicators:

Buy (3)

Sell (6)

Deutsche Bank AG

11.356

-0.174 (-1.51%)

Summary

↑ Buy

Moving Avg:

Buy (12)

Sell (0)

Indicators:

Buy (8)

Sell (0)

 EUR/USD1.0740↑ Buy
 GBP/USD1.2047↑ Buy
 USD/JPY132.34↑ Sell
 AUD/USD0.6899↑ Buy
 USD/CAD1.3428↑ Sell
 EUR/JPY142.11Neutral
 EUR/CHF0.9954↑ Sell
 Gold1,884.80↑ Buy
 Silver22.332↑ Buy
 Copper4.0440↑ Buy
 Crude Oil WTI74.77↑ Buy
 Brent Oil81.66↑ Buy
 Natural Gas2.493↑ Sell
 US Coffee C176.35Neutral
 Euro Stoxx 504,205.45Neutral
 S&P 5004,111.08↑ Buy
 DAX15,345.91Neutral
 FTSE 1007,836.71Neutral
 Hang Seng21,369.00↑ Buy
 Small Cap 20001,954.80↑ Sell
 IBEX 359,159.20↑ Sell
 BASF52.950↑ Sell
 Bayer58.19↑ Sell
 Allianz219.30Neutral
 Adidas155.36↑ Sell
 Lufthansa9.803↑ Buy
 Siemens AG142.96Sell
 Deutsche Bank AG11.356↑ Buy
Mua/Bán 1 chỉ SJC
# So hôm qua # Chênh TG
SJC Eximbank6,640/ 6,700
(0/ 0) # 1,370
SJC HCM6,640/ 6,720
(0/ 0) # 1,389
SJC Hanoi6,640/ 6,722
(0/ 0) # 1,391
SJC Danang6,640/ 6,722
(0/ 0) # 1,391
SJC Nhatrang6,640/ 6,722
(0/ 0) # 1,391
SJC Cantho6,640/ 6,722
(0/ 0) # 1,391
Cập nhật 07-02-2023 08:32:55
Xem lịch sử giá vàng SJC: nhấn đây!
ↀ Giá vàng thế giới
$1,871.24+5.870.31%
Live 24 hour Gold Chart
ʘ Giá bán lẻ xăng dầu
Sản phẩmVùng 1Vùng 2
RON 95-V24.00024.480
RON 95-III23.14023.600
E5 RON 92-II22.32022.760
DO 0.05S22.52022.970
DO 0,001S-V24.28024.760
Dầu hỏa 2-K22.57023.020
ↂ Giá dầu thô thế giới
WTI$74.97-0.21-0.28%
Brent$81.49-0.29-0.35%
$ Tỷ giá Vietcombank
Ngoại tệMua vàoBán ra
USD23.270,0023.640,00
EUR24.549,3325.923,95
GBP27.521,0528.694,56
JPY172,49182,61
KRW16,1519,68
Cập nhật lúc 08:27:02 07/02/2023
Xem bảng tỷ giá hối đoái
Phương Thức Thanh Toán