ECB pledges low rates for longer as virus casts shadow over growth

23 Tháng Bảy 2021
ECB pledges low rates for longer as virus casts shadow over growth © Reuters. FILE PHOTO: The European Central Bank (ECB) logo in Frankfurt, Germany, January 23, 2020. REUTERS/Ralph Orlowski

By Balazs Koranyi and Francesco Canepa

FRANKFURT (Reuters) -The European Central Bank pledged on Thursday to keep interest rates at record lows for even longer to boost sluggish inflation and warned that the rapidly spreading Delta variant of the coronavirus poses a risk to the euro zone's recovery.

The central bank of the 19 countries that share the euro said it would not hike borrowing costs until it sees inflation reach its 2% target "well ahead of the end of its projection horizon and durably".

"We did so to underline our commitment to maintain a persistently accommodative monetary policy stance to meet our inflation target," ECB President Christine Lagarde told a news conference.

She said the ECB wants to see inflation head to 2% by the mid-point of its forecast horizon, which currently stretches to 2023 and is extended by one year every December, and that any deviation above the target should be incidental.

The ECB's previous guidance said it would keep interest rates at current levels until it was happy that inflation expectations were converging to its target, and stop buying bonds for its quantitative easing programme shortly before that.

The shift in language was prompted by the ECB's new strategy, unveiled earlier this month, under which inflation may be allowed temporarily to exceed its target when "especially forceful or persistent" monetary support is needed.

Inflation has undershot the target for most of the last decade, even with rates slashed to record lows and stimulus pumped in.

"The new forward guidance is consistent with the ECB hiking rates even later than under the previous framework (but) it does not fundamentally change the criteria that will trigger policy normalisation," said Frederik Ducrozet, a strategist at Pictet..

Yet others felt the ECB was not going far enough.

"Unsurprisingly the ECB's grand new mandate interpretation looks worryingly like the old one with a pretty bow on it," said James Athey, investment director at Aberdeen Standard Investments.

The euro strengthened against the dollar after Lagarde's news conference while yields on euro zone government bonds fell.

William De Vijlder, chief economist at BNP-Paribas, said the currency's move showed the ECB is now perceived to be less accommodative than the U.S. Federal Reserve, which is targeting average realised inflation rather than focusing on expectations.

COMPROMISE

The change in language was not backed by all ECB policymakers.

"We did not have unanimity but we had an overwhelming majority (for) the calibration of the forward guidance on ECB interest rates," Lagarde said, adding that she had anticipated opposition.

Governors from more indebted countries such as Portugal and Italy had come out in force before the meeting to argue that the new strategy means the ECB should keep the money taps wide open for even longer.

But inflation hawks, who favour tighter policy and tend to come from less indebted countries like Germany, have been more cautious as they expect price pressures to return sooner.

The ECB expects inflation in the euro zone as a whole to hit 1.9% this year before falling back to 1.5% in 2022 and 1.4% the year after.

Financial markets are not pricing in an interest rate hike for at least three years. The ECB last raised rates in July 2011.

COVID AND INFLATION

The ECB's inflation goal has slipped further from its grasp since the onset of the coronavirus pandemic, which Lagarde said remains a threat.

"The recovery in the euro area economy is on track," she said. "But the pandemic continues to cast a shadow, especially as the Delta variant constitutes a growing source of uncertainty."

The ECB has pledged to continue its 1.85 trillion euro ($2.18 trillion) Pandemic Emergency Purchase Programme (PEPP) until the "crisis phase" of the pandemic is over and at least until March 2022.

It will soon need to decide when to stop it and whether to replace it, at least in part, with other schemes.

Conservative policymakers argue that the COVID-19 emergency is fading so the ECB needs to give up its extraordinary powers and revert to more traditional measures, bound by stricter rules and with a narrower focus on getting inflation back to target.

But doves who back an easier policy stance have warned about the risk posed by the Delta variant, which has already caused containment measures to be partially reinstated in some euro zone countries.

($1 = 0.8481 euros)

Để lại bình luận
24-07-2021 18:43:06 (UTC+7)

EUR/USD

1.1773

+0.0003 (+0.03%)

Summary

Neutral

Moving Avg:

Buy (4)

Sell (8)

Indicators:

Buy (8)

Sell (1)

EUR/USD

1.1773

+0.0003 (+0.03%)

Summary

Neutral

Moving Avg:

Buy (4)

Sell (8)

Indicators:

Buy (8)

Sell (1)

GBP/USD

1.3747

-0.0016 (-0.12%)

Summary

↑ Sell

Moving Avg:

Buy (0)

Sell (12)

Indicators:

Buy (1)

Sell (8)

USD/JPY

110.56

+0.41 (+0.38%)

Summary

↑ Buy

Moving Avg:

Buy (12)

Sell (0)

Indicators:

Buy (5)

Sell (2)

AUD/USD

0.7365

-0.0013 (-0.18%)

Summary

Buy

Moving Avg:

Buy (6)

Sell (6)

Indicators:

Buy (6)

Sell (2)

USD/CAD

1.2560

-0.0004 (-0.03%)

Summary

Neutral

Moving Avg:

Buy (1)

Sell (11)

Indicators:

Buy (4)

Sell (1)

EUR/JPY

130.16

+0.53 (+0.41%)

Summary

↑ Buy

Moving Avg:

Buy (12)

Sell (0)

Indicators:

Buy (7)

Sell (0)

EUR/CHF

1.0827

+0.0013 (+0.12%)

Summary

↑ Buy

Moving Avg:

Buy (12)

Sell (0)

Indicators:

Buy (5)

Sell (3)

Gold Futures

1,801.90

-3.50 (-0.19%)

Summary

↑ Sell

Moving Avg:

Buy (0)

Sell (12)

Indicators:

Buy (1)

Sell (7)

Silver Futures

25.235

-0.146 (-0.58%)

Summary

↑ Sell

Moving Avg:

Buy (0)

Sell (12)

Indicators:

Buy (2)

Sell (8)

Copper Futures

4.4553

+0.1178 (+2.72%)

Summary

Neutral

Moving Avg:

Buy (6)

Sell (6)

Indicators:

Buy (3)

Sell (5)

Crude Oil WTI Futures

72.17

+0.26 (+0.36%)

Summary

↑ Buy

Moving Avg:

Buy (10)

Sell (2)

Indicators:

Buy (8)

Sell (0)

Brent Oil Futures

74.20

+0.41 (+0.56%)

Summary

↑ Buy

Moving Avg:

Buy (10)

Sell (2)

Indicators:

Buy (8)

Sell (1)

Natural Gas Futures

4.046

+0.043 (+1.07%)

Summary

Neutral

Moving Avg:

Buy (6)

Sell (6)

Indicators:

Buy (0)

Sell (5)

US Coffee C Futures

191.88

-1.77 (-0.91%)

Summary

↑ Buy

Moving Avg:

Buy (12)

Sell (0)

Indicators:

Buy (9)

Sell (0)

Euro Stoxx 50

4,109.10

+50.05 (+1.23%)

Summary

↑ Buy

Moving Avg:

Buy (9)

Sell (3)

Indicators:

Buy (6)

Sell (1)

S&P 500

4,411.80

+44.32 (+1.01%)

Summary

↑ Sell

Moving Avg:

Buy (5)

Sell (7)

Indicators:

Buy (1)

Sell (8)

DAX

15,669.29

+154.75 (+1.00%)

Summary

↑ Buy

Moving Avg:

Buy (10)

Sell (2)

Indicators:

Buy (8)

Sell (1)

FTSE 100

7,027.58

+59.28 (+0.85%)

Summary

Neutral

Moving Avg:

Buy (7)

Sell (5)

Indicators:

Buy (3)

Sell (4)

Hang Seng

27,284.87

-415.75 (-1.50%)

Summary

Neutral

Moving Avg:

Buy (4)

Sell (8)

Indicators:

Buy (5)

Sell (1)

US Small Cap 2000

2,209.41

+9.94 (+0.45%)

Summary

↑ Buy

Moving Avg:

Buy (12)

Sell (0)

Indicators:

Buy (6)

Sell (2)

IBEX 35

8,717.20

+95.40 (+1.11%)

Summary

↑ Sell

Moving Avg:

Buy (0)

Sell (12)

Indicators:

Buy (2)

Sell (8)

BASF SE NA O.N.

67.030

+0.470 (+0.71%)

Summary

Neutral

Moving Avg:

Buy (6)

Sell (6)

Indicators:

Buy (5)

Sell (3)

Bayer AG NA

51.20

+0.06 (+0.12%)

Summary

↑ Buy

Moving Avg:

Buy (12)

Sell (0)

Indicators:

Buy (9)

Sell (1)

Allianz SE VNA O.N.

210.50

+1.78 (+0.85%)

Summary

↑ Buy

Moving Avg:

Buy (12)

Sell (0)

Indicators:

Buy (8)

Sell (1)

Adidas AG

317.70

+5.38 (+1.72%)

Summary

↑ Buy

Moving Avg:

Buy (12)

Sell (0)

Indicators:

Buy (8)

Sell (0)

Deutsche Lufthansa AG

9.849

+0.105 (+1.08%)

Summary

↑ Sell

Moving Avg:

Buy (0)

Sell (12)

Indicators:

Buy (2)

Sell (5)

Siemens AG Class N

134.65

+0.49 (+0.37%)

Summary

↑ Buy

Moving Avg:

Buy (12)

Sell (0)

Indicators:

Buy (9)

Sell (0)

Deutsche Bank AG

10.590

+0.175 (+1.68%)

Summary

↑ Buy

Moving Avg:

Buy (10)

Sell (2)

Indicators:

Buy (6)

Sell (2)

 EUR/USD1.1773Neutral
 GBP/USD1.3747↑ Sell
 USD/JPY110.56↑ Buy
 AUD/USD0.7365Buy
 USD/CAD1.2560Neutral
 EUR/JPY130.16↑ Buy
 EUR/CHF1.0827↑ Buy
 Gold1,801.90↑ Sell
 Silver25.235↑ Sell
 Copper4.4553Neutral
 Crude Oil WTI72.17↑ Buy
 Brent Oil74.20↑ Buy
 Natural Gas4.046Neutral
 US Coffee C191.88↑ Buy
 Euro Stoxx 504,109.10↑ Buy
 S&P 5004,411.80↑ Sell
 DAX15,669.29↑ Buy
 FTSE 1007,027.58Neutral
 Hang Seng27,284.87Neutral
 Small Cap 20002,209.41↑ Buy
 IBEX 358,717.20↑ Sell
 BASF67.030Neutral
 Bayer51.20↑ Buy
 Allianz210.50↑ Buy
 Adidas317.70↑ Buy
 Lufthansa9.849↑ Sell
 Siemens AG134.65↑ Buy
 Deutsche Bank AG10.590↑ Buy
Mua/Bán 1 chỉ SJC
# So hôm qua # Chênh TG
SJC Eximbank5,695/ 5,750
(0/ 0) # 744
SJC HCM5,680/ 5,745
(-5/ -5) # 728
SJC Hanoi5,680/ 5,747
(-5/ -5) # 730
SJC Danang5,680/ 5,747
(-5/ -5) # 730
SJC Nhatrang5,680/ 5,747
(-5/ -5) # 730
SJC Cantho5,680/ 5,747
(-5/ -5) # 730
Cập nhật 24-07-2021 18:43:08
Xem lịch sử giá vàng SJC: nhấn đây!
ↀ Giá vàng thế giới
$1,802.30-5.19-0.29%
Live 24 hour Gold Chart
ʘ Giá bán lẻ xăng dầu
Sản phẩmVùng 1Vùng 2
RON 95-IV2188022310
RON 95-II,III2178022210
E5 RON 92-II2061021020
DO 0.05S1653016860
DO 0,001S-V1688017210
Dầu hỏa1550015810
$ Tỷ giá Vietcombank
Ngoại tệMua vàoBán ra
USD22.880,0023.110,00
EUR26.402,7727.776,62
GBP30.868,2832.157,66
JPY203,50214,17
KRW17,3221,09
Cập nhật lúc 18:39:36 24/07/2021
Xem bảng tỷ giá hối đoái