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Dollar's vice grip on FX markets to loosen this year - analysts

Friday, January 6, 2023
Dollar's vice grip on FX markets to loosen this year - analysts © Reuters. FILE PHOTO: A U.S. dollar banknote is seen in this illustration taken July 17, 2022. REUTERS/Dado Ruvic/Illustration/File Photo
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By Hari Kishan

BENGALURU (Reuters) - The dollar's vice grip on FX markets will loosen a bit this year, according to analysts in a Reuters poll who expect most currencies to post marginal gains against the greenback over the coming 12 months.

After enjoying complete domination over nearly every currency last year with the dollar index having its best annual performance since 2015, the run is over as the U.S. currency is expected to give back some of its gains this year.

The Reuters Jan. 3-5 poll of 65 forex strategists showed most major and emerging currencies gaining against the dollar over the coming year.

But with factors that helped the dollar's outperformance expected to linger the predicted gains would be limited and not enough to offset heavy losses from the past couple of years.

"There is a general perception the dollar has peaked, but I don't think we're going to have a straight-line movement of dollar losses," said Jane Foley, head of FX strategy at Rabobank.

"Even though the market is already beginning to debate when the Fed could potentially start to cut interest rates... hikes are still to come... there are also concerns about global growth and the combination of these two mean the dollar is likely to find bouts of strength."

Asked whether the dollar risked ending 2023 higher or lower than their predicted levels, a strong 60% majority of analysts - 30 of 50 who answered the additional question - said the risk was to the upside while the other 20 said there was downside risk to their forecast.

Reuters Poll-U.S. dollar outlook: https://fingfx.thomsonreuters.com/gfx/polling/akpeqqdqbpr/Reuters%20Poll-U.S.%20dollar%20outlook-January%202023.PNG

Despite being wrong-footed for years predicting dollar weakness, analysts still clung to that view in the latest poll.

The euro, down nearly 13% over the last two years, was expected to only recoup around a third of those losses in a year.

Median forecasts showed the euro will trade at $1.04, $1.06 in the next three and six months respectively. It is then forecast to change hands around $1.10 in a year, a near 4% gain from current levels.

The Japanese yen took a beating last year, losing over a fifth of its value until late December when the Bank of Japan made a surprise tweak to its bond yield curve control. But it still ended the year 12% lower against the dollar.

It is expected to gain nearly 4% to trade at 128.00/dollar by the end of 2023.

With an expected slowdown in global economic growth and uncertainty over how long central banks will keep interest rates higher to temper inflation, analysts were split over which currencies would perform better against the dollar this year.

A strong minority of analysts, 24 of 50, said emerging market currencies; 13 said developed market currencies; nine said safe-haven currencies; and four said commodity-linked currencies.

"The emerging market currencies can probably outperform relative to the G10 and then also relative to the dollar over the longer term," said Brendan McKenna, international economist and FX strategist at Wells Fargo (NYSE:WFC).

"We're still in an environment where yields associated with the emerging market currencies are still the highest and probably the most attractive."

(For other stories from the January Reuters foreign exchange poll:)

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    EUR/USD 1.0793 Sell  
    GBP/USD 1.2624 Sell  
    USD/JPY 151.38 ↑ Buy  
    AUD/USD 0.6522 Sell  
    USD/CAD 1.3543 Buy  
    EUR/JPY 163.37 ↑ Sell  
    EUR/CHF 0.9738 ↑ Buy  
    Gold 2,254.80 Buy  
    Silver 25.100 ↑ Buy  
    Copper 4.0115 ↑ Buy  
    Crude Oil WTI 83.11 ↑ Buy  
    Brent Oil 86.99 Neutral  
    Natural Gas 1.752 ↑ Sell  
    US Coffee C 188.53 ↑ Sell  
    Euro Stoxx 50 5,082.85 ↑ Sell  
    S&P 500 5,254.35 ↑ Sell  
    DAX 18,504.51 ↑ Buy  
    FTSE 100 7,952.62 ↑ Sell  
    Hang Seng 16,541.42 Neutral  
    Small Cap 2000 2,120.15 Neutral  
    IBEX 35 11,074.60 ↑ Sell  
    BASF 52.930 ↑ Buy  
    Bayer 28.43 Buy  
    Allianz 277.80 ↑ Buy  
    Adidas 207.00 ↑ Buy  
    Lufthansa 7.281 ↑ Sell  
    Siemens AG 176.96 ↑ Buy  
    Deutsche Bank AG 14.582 ↑ Buy  
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