



By Fergal Smith
TORONTO (Reuters) - Canada's dollar will rally this year, but much of the upswing will have to wait until a period of uncertainty passes for the domestic and global economies following aggressive tightening by central banks in 2022, a Reuters poll forecast.
The loonie will edge 0.6% higher to 1.35 per U.S. dollar, or 74.07 U.S. cents, in three months, according to the median forecast of currency analysts. That matches December's forecast.
It was then expected to strengthen to 1.30 in a year, which is a gain of 4.5%. In 2022, the loonie weakened 6.8%, its first decline since 2018.
"We expect to see some mild CAD weakness in the first half of 2023 ... as last year's rate hikes work their way through the economy and lead to a mild recession," said George Davis, chief technical strategist at RBC Capital Markets.
The Bank of Canada, along with the Federal Reserve and most other major central banks, has raised interest rates at a rapid pace to tackle soaring inflation.
At 4.25%, the BoC's benchmark rate is at its highest since 2008. Money markets see a 60% chance the central bank would hike by a quarter-percentage-point when it next meets to set policy on Jan. 25 and anticipate the policy rate will peak at about 4.60% in April.
Canada's economy is likely to be particularly sensitive to tighter monetary policy after households borrowed heavily during the pandemic to participate in a red-hot housing market.
"In the second half of the year we look for stabilization and a mild recovery in growth - not only in Canada but globally," Davis said. "A more positive economic cycle would bode well for commodities and CAD as well."
Canada is a major producer of commodities, including oil.
Another potential tailwind for the loonie would be the end of the U.S. dollar's dominant performance in global currency markets since 2021.
A "weaker dollar story" could emerge if the Fed moves to end quantitative tightening (QT), said Bipan Rai, global head of FX strategy at CIBC Capital Markets.
QT is a process central banks use to shrink the size of their balance sheets.
Fed QT "is probably going to come to an earlier than expected stop given the fact that liquidity risks are now developing in the banking system", Rai said. (For other stories from the January Reuters foreign exchange poll:)
EUR/USD
1.0498
+0.0033 (+0.32%)
Summary
NeutralMoving Avg:
Buy (8)
Sell (4)
Indicators:
Buy (2)
Sell (6)
EUR/USD
1.0498
+0.0033 (+0.32%)
Summary
NeutralMoving Avg:
Buy (8)
Sell (4)
Indicators:
Buy (2)
Sell (6)
GBP/USD
1.2127
+0.0052 (+0.43%)
Summary
NeutralMoving Avg:
Buy (8)
Sell (4)
Indicators:
Buy (1)
Sell (7)
USD/JPY
149.16
+0.14 (+0.09%)
Summary
↑ BuyMoving Avg:
Buy (7)
Sell (5)
Indicators:
Buy (7)
Sell (1)
AUD/USD
0.6324
+0.0022 (+0.36%)
Summary
NeutralMoving Avg:
Buy (7)
Sell (5)
Indicators:
Buy (0)
Sell (8)
USD/CAD
1.3697
-0.0011 (-0.08%)
Summary
BuyMoving Avg:
Buy (6)
Sell (6)
Indicators:
Buy (6)
Sell (3)
EUR/JPY
156.59
+0.62 (+0.40%)
Summary
BuyMoving Avg:
Buy (8)
Sell (4)
Indicators:
Buy (5)
Sell (2)
EUR/CHF
0.9642
+0.0002 (+0.02%)
Summary
SellMoving Avg:
Buy (5)
Sell (7)
Indicators:
Buy (2)
Sell (4)
Gold Futures
1,837.00
-4.50 (-0.24%)
Summary
↑ SellMoving Avg:
Buy (5)
Sell (7)
Indicators:
Buy (1)
Sell (8)
Silver Futures
21.253
-0.124 (-0.58%)
Summary
↑ SellMoving Avg:
Buy (1)
Sell (11)
Indicators:
Buy (0)
Sell (8)
Copper Futures
3.6180
-0.0030 (-0.08%)
Summary
NeutralMoving Avg:
Buy (9)
Sell (3)
Indicators:
Buy (4)
Sell (4)
Crude Oil WTI Futures
88.22
-1.01 (-1.13%)
Summary
BuyMoving Avg:
Buy (6)
Sell (6)
Indicators:
Buy (6)
Sell (1)
Brent Oil Futures
89.98
-0.94 (-1.03%)
Summary
NeutralMoving Avg:
Buy (5)
Sell (7)
Indicators:
Buy (4)
Sell (3)
Natural Gas Futures
2.981
+0.032 (+1.09%)
Summary
↑ SellMoving Avg:
Buy (2)
Sell (10)
Indicators:
Buy (0)
Sell (9)
US Coffee C Futures
148.40
-0.35 (-0.24%)
Summary
↑ SellMoving Avg:
Buy (0)
Sell (12)
Indicators:
Buy (0)
Sell (8)
Euro Stoxx 50
4,112.15
+16.56 (+0.40%)
Summary
↑ BuyMoving Avg:
Buy (11)
Sell (1)
Indicators:
Buy (9)
Sell (0)
S&P 500
4,229.45
-58.94 (-1.37%)
Summary
↑ BuyMoving Avg:
Buy (12)
Sell (0)
Indicators:
Buy (9)
Sell (1)
DAX
15,108.25
+23.04 (+0.15%)
Summary
↑ BuyMoving Avg:
Buy (12)
Sell (0)
Indicators:
Buy (7)
Sell (1)
FTSE 100
7,484.36
+14.20 (+0.19%)
Summary
↑ BuyMoving Avg:
Buy (11)
Sell (1)
Indicators:
Buy (9)
Sell (1)
Hang Seng
17,186.00
-90.00 (-0.52%)
Summary
↑ BuyMoving Avg:
Buy (12)
Sell (0)
Indicators:
Buy (6)
Sell (1)
US Small Cap 2000
1,724.80
-32.02 (-1.82%)
Summary
NeutralMoving Avg:
Buy (11)
Sell (1)
Indicators:
Buy (3)
Sell (5)
IBEX 35
9,169.79
+4.29 (+0.05%)
Summary
↑ BuyMoving Avg:
Buy (11)
Sell (1)
Indicators:
Buy (7)
Sell (1)
BASF SE NA O.N.
42.410
+0.650 (+1.56%)
Summary
↑ BuyMoving Avg:
Buy (12)
Sell (0)
Indicators:
Buy (9)
Sell (0)
Bayer AG NA
44.18
+0.29 (+0.66%)
Summary
↑ BuyMoving Avg:
Buy (12)
Sell (0)
Indicators:
Buy (9)
Sell (1)
Allianz SE VNA O.N.
221.00
+0.05 (+0.02%)
Summary
SellMoving Avg:
Buy (6)
Sell (6)
Indicators:
Buy (1)
Sell (6)
Adidas AG
160.09
-0.63 (-0.39%)
Summary
↑ BuyMoving Avg:
Buy (11)
Sell (1)
Indicators:
Buy (10)
Sell (0)
Deutsche Lufthansa AG
7.168
-0.079 (-1.09%)
Summary
↑ BuyMoving Avg:
Buy (10)
Sell (2)
Indicators:
Buy (8)
Sell (0)
Siemens AG Class N
134.00
+0.90 (+0.68%)
Summary
↑ BuyMoving Avg:
Buy (8)
Sell (4)
Indicators:
Buy (7)
Sell (2)
Deutsche Bank AG
9.860
-0.071 (-0.71%)
Summary
↑ BuyMoving Avg:
Buy (12)
Sell (0)
Indicators:
Buy (9)
Sell (0)
EUR/USD | 1.0498 | Neutral | |||
GBP/USD | 1.2127 | Neutral | |||
USD/JPY | 149.16 | ↑ Buy | |||
AUD/USD | 0.6324 | Neutral | |||
USD/CAD | 1.3697 | Buy | |||
EUR/JPY | 156.59 | Buy | |||
EUR/CHF | 0.9642 | Sell |
Gold | 1,837.00 | ↑ Sell | |||
Silver | 21.253 | ↑ Sell | |||
Copper | 3.6180 | Neutral | |||
Crude Oil WTI | 88.22 | Buy | |||
Brent Oil | 89.98 | Neutral | |||
Natural Gas | 2.981 | ↑ Sell | |||
US Coffee C | 148.40 | ↑ Sell |
Euro Stoxx 50 | 4,112.15 | ↑ Buy | |||
S&P 500 | 4,229.45 | ↑ Buy | |||
DAX | 15,108.25 | ↑ Buy | |||
FTSE 100 | 7,484.36 | ↑ Buy | |||
Hang Seng | 17,186.00 | ↑ Buy | |||
Small Cap 2000 | 1,724.80 | Neutral | |||
IBEX 35 | 9,169.79 | ↑ Buy |
BASF | 42.410 | ↑ Buy | |||
Bayer | 44.18 | ↑ Buy | |||
Allianz | 221.00 | Sell | |||
Adidas | 160.09 | ↑ Buy | |||
Lufthansa | 7.168 | ↑ Buy | |||
Siemens AG | 134.00 | ↑ Buy | |||
Deutsche Bank AG | 9.860 | ↑ Buy |
Mua/Bán 1 chỉ SJC # So hôm qua # Chênh TG | |
---|---|
SJC Eximbank | 6,820![]() ![]() (-20 ![]() ![]() |
SJC HCM | 6,815![]() ![]() (-5 ![]() ![]() |
SJC Hanoi | 6,815![]() ![]() (-5 ![]() ![]() |
SJC Danang | 6,815![]() ![]() (-5 ![]() ![]() |
SJC Nhatrang | 6,815![]() ![]() (-5 ![]() ![]() |
SJC Cantho | 6,815![]() ![]() (-5 ![]() ![]() |
Cập nhật 04-10-2023 17:00:19 | |
Xem lịch sử giá vàng SJC: nhấn đây! |
ↀ Giá vàng thế giới | ||
---|---|---|
$1,821.88 | -1.8 | -0.10% |
ʘ Giá bán lẻ xăng dầu | ||
---|---|---|
Sản phẩm | Vùng 1 | Vùng 2 |
RON 95-V | 25.370 | 25.870 |
RON 95-III | 24.840 | 25.330 |
E5 RON 92-II | 23.500 | 23.970 |
DO 0.05S | 23.590 | 24.060 |
DO 0,001S-V | 24.450 | 24.930 |
Dầu hỏa 2-K | 23.810 | 24.280 |
ↂ Giá dầu thô thế giới | |||
---|---|---|---|
WTI | $87.25 | +5.24 | 0.06% |
Brent | $89.56 | +3.9 | 0.05% |
$ Tỷ giá Vietcombank | ||
---|---|---|
Ngoại tệ | Mua vào | Bán ra |
USD | 24.210,00 | 24.580,00 |
EUR | 24.873,21 | 26.238,71 |
GBP | 28.676,26 | 29.897,08 |
JPY | 158,99 | 168,29 |
KRW | 15,49 | 18,87 |
Cập nhật lúc 16:58:55 04/10/2023 Xem bảng tỷ giá hối đoái |