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BofA is a 'Patient Bear' Despite Flows Suggesting This is More Than a Bear Market Rally

By Senad Karaahmetovic Last week, the Bank of America clients were net buyers of U.S. stocks for the seventh consecutive week with inflows recorded at $3.2 billion, according to...
BofA is a 'Patient Bear' Despite Flows Suggesting This is More Than a Bear Market Rally © Reuters. BofA is a 'Patient Bear' Despite Flows Suggesting This is More Than a Bear Market Rally

By Senad Karaahmetovic

Last week, the Bank of America clients were net buyers of U.S. stocks for the seventh consecutive week with inflows recorded at $3.2 billion, according to strategist Jill Carey Hall.

Institutional clients led the buying activity for the third consecutive week while hedge funds returned to the long side after selling in the previous week. Interestingly, retail clients were selling last week, which marks the first week of going short in almost 2 months.

“Clients bought stocks in six of the 11 sectors, led by Tech (seventh largest weekly Tech inflow in our data history since ’08) and Consumer Discretionary (largest weekly inflow in our data history). Consumer Discretionary is typically an early-cycle sector that outperforms during Fed easing cycles, though outperformance for consumer services stocks often begins earlier,” Carey Hall said in a note.

Clients have continued to dump defensive sectors, like Health Care and Consumer Staples, with Staples outflows the sixth-largest since 2008. Elsewhere, clients have bought Energy stocks while Industrials recorded the fourth consecutive week of selling.

For Carey Hall, these flows suggest investors believe the ongoing rally is more the beginning of an early cycle than just a bear market rally.

Bank of America’s Global Fund Manager Survey (FMS) for August also showed that sentiment remains bearish, “but no longer apocalyptically bearish as hopes rise that inflation & rates shocks end in coming quarters.”

“BofA Bull & Bear Indicator stays at 'max bearish' 0 = no immediate reversal of bear rally; but we remain patient bears, would fade SPX >4328 as rates up-profits down our base case,” Chief Investment Strategist Michael Hartnett wrote in a client note.

Equity allocations are on the rise from “dire” July lows as investors expect lower inflation in the next 12 months. This is also reflected in the cash levels, which fell to 5.7% from 6.1% in July.

“FMS positioning still 'long stagflation' (commodities, cash, defensives), 'short Goldilocks' (EU/EM stocks, consumer); but big Aug rotation to US stocks/tech/consumer, out of staples/utilities/UK,” Hartnett added.

More importantly, the survey showed that “notable FMS investors” expect growth stocks to outperform value in the next 12 months.

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29-09-2022 06:00:58 (UTC+7)

EUR/USD

0.9719

-0.0015 (-0.15%)

Summary

↑ Sell

Moving Avg:

Buy (0)

Sell (12)

Indicators:

Buy (0)

Sell (7)

EUR/USD

0.9719

-0.0015 (-0.15%)

Summary

↑ Sell

Moving Avg:

Buy (0)

Sell (12)

Indicators:

Buy (0)

Sell (7)

GBP/USD

1.0857

-0.0031 (-0.28%)

Summary

↑ Sell

Moving Avg:

Buy (0)

Sell (12)

Indicators:

Buy (0)

Sell (9)

USD/JPY

144.24

+0.07 (+0.05%)

Summary

↑ Buy

Moving Avg:

Buy (12)

Sell (0)

Indicators:

Buy (8)

Sell (1)

AUD/USD

0.6510

-0.0011 (-0.18%)

Summary

↑ Sell

Moving Avg:

Buy (0)

Sell (12)

Indicators:

Buy (1)

Sell (7)

USD/CAD

1.3620

+0.0014 (+0.11%)

Summary

Sell

Moving Avg:

Buy (6)

Sell (6)

Indicators:

Buy (3)

Sell (6)

EUR/JPY

140.18

-0.14 (-0.10%)

Summary

↑ Sell

Moving Avg:

Buy (0)

Sell (12)

Indicators:

Buy (0)

Sell (8)

EUR/CHF

0.9495

-0.0006 (-0.06%)

Summary

↑ Sell

Moving Avg:

Buy (0)

Sell (12)

Indicators:

Buy (0)

Sell (9)

Gold Futures

1,666.10

-2.60 (-0.16%)

Summary

↑ Sell

Moving Avg:

Buy (2)

Sell (10)

Indicators:

Buy (0)

Sell (9)

Silver Futures

18.863

-0.047 (-0.25%)

Summary

↑ Sell

Moving Avg:

Buy (0)

Sell (12)

Indicators:

Buy (0)

Sell (6)

Copper Futures

3.3792

-0.0023 (-0.07%)

Summary

Sell

Moving Avg:

Buy (3)

Sell (9)

Indicators:

Buy (3)

Sell (4)

Crude Oil WTI Futures

81.78

-0.07 (-0.09%)

Summary

Buy

Moving Avg:

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Indicators:

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Brent Oil Futures

87.98

+3.11 (+3.66%)

Summary

↑ Buy

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Natural Gas Futures

7.004

-0.023 (-0.33%)

Summary

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Indicators:

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US Coffee C Futures

227.80

+3.45 (+1.54%)

Summary

↑ Sell

Moving Avg:

Buy (1)

Sell (11)

Indicators:

Buy (1)

Sell (7)

Euro Stoxx 50

3,335.30

+6.65 (+0.20%)

Summary

Neutral

Moving Avg:

Buy (7)

Sell (5)

Indicators:

Buy (2)

Sell (5)

S&P 500

3,719.04

+71.75 (+1.97%)

Summary

↑ Sell

Moving Avg:

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Sell (9)

Indicators:

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DAX

12,183.28

+43.60 (+0.36%)

Summary

Neutral

Moving Avg:

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Sell (0)

Indicators:

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Sell (4)

FTSE 100

7,005.39

+20.80 (+0.30%)

Summary

Neutral

Moving Avg:

Buy (11)

Sell (1)

Indicators:

Buy (0)

Sell (6)

Hang Seng

17,250.88

-609.43 (-3.41%)

Summary

Buy

Moving Avg:

Buy (8)

Sell (4)

Indicators:

Buy (5)

Sell (2)

US Small Cap 2000

1,725.13

+62.62 (+3.77%)

Summary

↑ Buy

Moving Avg:

Buy (12)

Sell (0)

Indicators:

Buy (4)

Sell (3)

IBEX 35

7,442.20

-3.50 (-0.05%)

Summary

Neutral

Moving Avg:

Buy (12)

Sell (0)

Indicators:

Buy (4)

Sell (5)

BASF SE NA O.N.

39.415

-0.080 (-0.20%)

Summary

↑ Buy

Moving Avg:

Buy (12)

Sell (0)

Indicators:

Buy (10)

Sell (0)

Bayer AG NA

48.19

-0.07 (-0.13%)

Summary

Neutral

Moving Avg:

Buy (8)

Sell (4)

Indicators:

Buy (4)

Sell (4)

Allianz SE VNA O.N.

160.72

-3.02 (-1.84%)

Summary

↑ Buy

Moving Avg:

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Sell (0)

Indicators:

Buy (9)

Sell (0)

Adidas AG

130.24

+2.94 (+2.31%)

Summary

↑ Buy

Moving Avg:

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Sell (0)

Indicators:

Buy (10)

Sell (1)

Deutsche Lufthansa AG

5.772

-0.024 (-0.41%)

Summary

↑ Buy

Moving Avg:

Buy (12)

Sell (0)

Indicators:

Buy (8)

Sell (0)

Siemens AG Class N

99.46

+1.54 (+1.57%)

Summary

↑ Buy

Moving Avg:

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Sell (0)

Indicators:

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Sell (0)

Deutsche Bank AG

7.854

-0.274 (-3.37%)

Summary

↑ Sell

Moving Avg:

Buy (3)

Sell (9)

Indicators:

Buy (0)

Sell (7)

 EUR/USD0.9719↑ Sell
 GBP/USD1.0857↑ Sell
 USD/JPY144.24↑ Buy
 AUD/USD0.6510↑ Sell
 USD/CAD1.3620Sell
 EUR/JPY140.18↑ Sell
 EUR/CHF0.9495↑ Sell
 Gold1,666.10↑ Sell
 Silver18.863↑ Sell
 Copper3.3792Sell
 Crude Oil WTI81.78Buy
 Brent Oil87.98↑ Buy
 Natural Gas7.004↑ Sell
 US Coffee C227.80↑ Sell
 Euro Stoxx 503,335.30Neutral
 S&P 5003,719.04↑ Sell
 DAX12,183.28Neutral
 FTSE 1007,005.39Neutral
 Hang Seng17,250.88Buy
 Small Cap 20001,725.13↑ Buy
 IBEX 357,442.20Neutral
 BASF39.415↑ Buy
 Bayer48.19Neutral
 Allianz160.72↑ Buy
 Adidas130.24↑ Buy
 Lufthansa5.772↑ Buy
 Siemens AG99.46↑ Buy
 Deutsche Bank AG7.854↑ Sell
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SJC Eximbank6,410/ 6,510
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SJC HCM6,420/ 6,520
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RON 95-V23.26023.720
RON 95-III22.58023.030
E5 RON 92-II21.78022.210
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Ngoại tệMua vàoBán ra
USD23.580,0023.890,00
EUR22.159,1623.399,49
GBP24.732,3625.786,46
JPY159,76169,13
KRW14,2317,34
Cập nhật lúc 04:57:15 29/09/2022
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